Friday, August 16, 2013:
I'm getting the BATT's link here & I'll be making a MTM for it.
7:37 pm: 8/16/13 Friday: The below table (my modified MM) demonstrates the power of the 25/25 and 34/13 stats.
To the right was one of the best entry opportunities; observe the behavior of the 25/25 and the 34/13 on those dates. IMO a very powerful affirmation.
I'm not so sure whether the current conditions warrant a reversal as much as opportunities for *two way trades,* in my situation, for either TZA/TNA and NUGT/DUST.
BTW today's 25/25 158 diffy (*my designation for difference*) was the lowest since Monday, July 8, 2013 (151). And since I'm following @Riverside's parameter of +25 = bullish; I am still bullish; however, being very selective in my entries.
Mark Douglas Trading in the Zone.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3894109/Trading%20In%20The%20Zone%20Central%20Thesis.mp3
Thursday, August 15, 2013:
- Here's a pictorial progression of yesterday's first >1.0 million contract day at 11:00am EST (5am HST)
Starting from 3:34am: (I just snapshot my computer screen every 15 to 30 minutes) intermittently:
So at 3:34 AM EST (9:34 AM EST) (406K); 2/5ths of the way there (almost half way with 90 minutes to go).
Then about 14 minutes later 3:48 AM HST (9:48 EST): 554K (over 1/2 way there with 70 minutes to go);
in 14 minutes roughly averaging 10.7K per minute: So 10.7 x 70 minutes = 749K + 554K = 1.303mil estimated
At 4:13 AM HST (10:13 AM EST): Volume 836K.
836-554 = 282K in 15 min. = 18.8K per minute.
18.8K/min x 47 minutes to 5:00AM HST/11:00 AM EST = 883.6K
883.6K + 836K = 1.7196 mil (which was way over the actual 1.15ish Mil)
So by a little after 5:00AM HST /11:00 AM EST: The volume was 1.15mil; there was a slow down in volume after the first hour of trading:
So My Thesis, until proven wrong & as a evolving rule of thumb; if we start the day >410K; there's a high probability that we break the 1.0mil ES contracts.
19:54pm 8/15/13 Thursday:
So when was the last gap DOWN for TNA prior to 8/15?
6/20/13: This gap down occurred on Thursday, June 20, 2013. And yes that was an inverse head & shoulders pattern.
- 19:52pm 8/15/13 Thursday:
- About 11:58 am EST, I stated that since the /ES volume >1million contracts by 11am EST, makes it a higher probability for a trending day.
I wished I'd known it'd be a trending day at the 1st half hour. I closed many of my short positions at the beginning... yeah; it didn't make sense for the TZA portion; however, if I'd kept my DUST trade, I would've had my head handed to me. It's all good.
It was trending downwards, even with the retracements.
I just entered this note into my private blog. Eh what the heck, why not share it?
I did go long at the EOD, as I'd hinted about Noon in the trading day.
Why did I go long at the EOD? Here's my rationale graphic. (I'm the visually oriented type; that likes spreadsheet numbers).
18:33pm 8/15/13 Thursday: Covered in the ShadowTrader Video was the h&s pattern. I've extended this concept to find the target price using a confluence of tools, i.e. tomorrow's S2 & the 127.2% Fibonacci; resulting in a $53.43 to $53.48 price level.
17:08 pm: 8/15/13 Thursday: As it turned out; I was correct to anticipate the drop; the the early signals were the: bsky iday >-19; bsky <28% spike drop, nhspx & nhTC turning negative (nh spx is your early warning); mi:nyse going neg large in am and the mcIDay & mc3 both going negative.
The "b" formation in retrospect was not quite a "b" formation.
5:40am; 8/15/13 Thursday: ONH! TZA dropped to $26.12; bears came to the rescue; currently at $26.11125. Interesting battle. If it breaks this level (78.6% of the 5 min ORG); it could drop to 25.85-25.66
5:25am: 8/15/13 Thursday: Valuable lesson being learned, i.e following one particular stock. Also, while watching this particular stock, i.e. TZA, I am learning about its tendencies, corroborated by my alerts. In fact TZA is now playing with the 61.8% fibonacci ORG. The 50% retracement is at $26.27 and the 61.8% is $26.21. There are interesting developments in the candlesticks.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013:
- What I call the bsky diffy (difference between days of the 10sma) was -5%.
Prior to that the past four days was a +15%.
I've got the 10sma at 38%. However, that diffy loss of only -5%, suggests a fair probability of an Opening Bell sell off.
Prior to that Tues 8/6 & Wed 8/7 both negative days, totaled a -18%.
I usually do not see reversals just with a -5% diffy. Which leads me to thinking of a OBell sell off.
One thing to remember is @riverside's comment which I tend to follow, when the 25/25 difference is positive, remain bullish (or sidelines/neutral).
- anything can happen
4:05 am: 8/14/13 Wednesday: Need to stay away from sbee; too addicting & I'm an addictive type of personality. Need to stay here with TNA & TZA which both need to be managed. The TNA PP is at the Aug 59.5 price at 65c. Currently Market is at a stalemate.
Here is an interesting read from Dan Riley:
Jack Broz got me thinking about specific SPX price levels that I posted into my alerts.
Broz: The next big trade will be in bonds in fall 2013
Fall 2013 outlook from Jack Broz of Broz on Bonds
- I sat down yesterday in our offices across the street from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for a chat with veteran bond trader and popular educator and trading coach Jack Broz. Jack often drops by after the bond market closes to get coffee, draft his next newsletter, and answer questions from clients and participants in the IM Pro chat room, where he is one of the moderators.
- Once he was done, I asked if we could just record our typical Tuesday afternoon conversation instead of doing a formal article. Actually, I just turned on the recorder, but he knew it was on. I think. Anyway, he gave a wealth of insights and ended with a surprisingly confident and specific prediction for the rest of the year. Read on.
A lot of people, both actual traders and pundits, are predicting a drop in the S&P 500, which you follow. What do you think will happen?
- As we sit here right now, the S&P is below 1690, which I think is a crucial price. Going beneath that means we’re [likely to see more] downside. Near-term I’m looking for 1669 in the S&P. It certainly could go as low as 1656.
- Now, if it makes it back up to 1690 and holds there, it makes this whole [downward] move just kind of a head fake. Back over 1690, I’m on the up side. I’d look for it to take on the high of 1705.
- And above 1705, I mean, I have targets up there. There’s a 1741. If they re-show me strength, I’m not going to say, “Well they can’t do this,” and just sell it. Because obviously they can do it.
So the drop to as low as 1656 could be a head fake. That means the head fake could be a pretty big move. A 30-handle head fake?
- Well, my point is that because the movements are so massive, thirty handles isn’t really anything. To me, the bears have done something by taking out 1690. Now, if the bears are really going to take control, they’ve got to get below that 1669. If they do that, then they should go to 1656. I have stuff that’s lower, but that’s a pretty good start. I’d need to check my charts but I think there’s a 1626; that’s a pretty important number.
It’s funny how so many of our numbers coincide. Almost every time we talk and you mention a level, it’s significant for me, too. Even though we’re coming at the charts with very different methods.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013:
3:52 am 8/13/13 Tuesday: Nikkei, DAX were both up. Excellent my TNA short calls are tanking. So I'll be able to collect premium this week. Need to do the same with TZA. Here's one of my favorite reads, Dan Riley, i.e. Mr.TopStep.
Prepare for a push to 1705 and the return of Congress
Morning call: our view of today's market
- The Asian markets closed higher across the board (Nikkei +2.57%) and Europe is going along for the ride. I am sure you and everyone else are tired of hearing how slow it is or that people are taking time off. What we should be talking about is the congressional time clock and the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs.
- Hans / Pixabay
- We all know the money the government has been spending to support the markets can’t go on forever and we all know it needs to be paid back, but that’s not going to happen any time soon. It’s not if, it’s when. And it’s not going to be pretty. That said, I do not believe that there will be an ’87-style crash.
- When the credit crisis started, I said this would be a 10-year deal, and now I think it could go on for even longer. One of the things the PitBull has taught me is that the S&P tends to top at the end of July and into August. With the S&P up so much and with so much talk about an impending selloff, we think you have to keep tight stops on your longs.
- Until then we are still buying weakness. Sure we had another 3-day sell-off in the S&P, but look at the net changes below. Until yesterday the S&P had been down 4 out of the last 5 sessions, down almost 30 handles.
Monday Aug 5 -1.5 handles
Tuesday Aug 6 -8.6 handles
Wednesday Aug -5.7 handles
Thursday Aug 8 +5.5 handles
Friday Aug 9 -7.5 handles
Monday Aug 12 +0.90 handles- The problem is, the S&P isn’t really going anywhere and the price action looks exactly as it did a few weeks back when the ESU sold off from the 1698 high down to 1670. That was about a 30-handle sell-off as well. After the sell-off there were several higher lows, a bunch of back-and-filling, and then a push back up to the new contract high at 1705.00. That’s what we think is going on now.
Monday, August 12, 2013:
11:15am 8/12/13: Needless to say; you did not follow the plan.
9:30am 8/12/13: Here is an example of self sabotage; you were mentally ready. You chose the wrong path, i.e. you shorted calls on long positions. This was a scenario for
1:59am: 8/12/13: John did a six wide spread
Sunday, August 11, 2013:
6:31am: Sent marco $50 donation.
http://www.long-short-timing.com/Pages/whatwedo.aspx
Saturday, August 10, 2013:
9:34am 8/10/13 Saturday:
- If an investor with basic to intermediate charting skills, were to look at just one video, here is the video I would recommend:
- Multiple Time Frame Analysis
- (btw: typo: informedtrades.com... not traders)
- David covers concepts that is invaluable; e.g.:
- 1) (Positive habit): Start your chart analysis always with the longer time frame first, then work your way down to the shorter time frames;
- 2) If support or resistance levels are observed on multiple time frames, the validity of these observed levels increases (& vice versa).
- 8:30am 8/10/13 Saturday: Just looked at NTAP; and suddenly after yesterday it looks less bullish for the near term. I would expect a healthy pull back to somewhere about the $42.26 (50% of the gap candle) to $41.63 (61.8% fib) level as the band of support.
However, if NTAP breaks $41.22; I would expect an elevator down to lower prices in quick manner. - Seems to be confirmed by the Cycle Brackets, i.e., NTAP could be headed for a minor down cycle in a general uptrend.
(I've tended to find when the 78.6% is violated, action happens in the direction of the violation).
And sometimes the "action could be either towards the 161.8%, 261.8% or 423.6% fibs."
Friday, August 9, 2013:
12:01 am: 8/9/13 Friday TC:Evaluation:
Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!: iday diffy with a 2 day total of a +15. So expect a pull back.
- 5.8.30dreds slight edge if any. peter, topstep, parets & adam all feel positive about the market. I take that 5ma improved over yester; 10/50ma & T2108 all less. I can use the possible dro
- p at the open to close my TZA and perhaps open SSO 800 to 1K.
1:08 pm: 8/9/13 Friday: Two large algorithmic programs firing at different times of the day.
- Algorithms have a special place for low volume days; it wracks havoc on LVD.
- However, that being said, I more to the bullish side. Unless key levels are broken.
- However, take a look at the /DX; it was acting very odd.... weak IMO.
- Then it closed with a shooting star... (yeah I know I should use a longer time frame)....
8/9/13 10:26am: Pegging Puts beat the Calls for the TNA 58.50:
12:01 am: 8/9/13 Friday MI: Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!: Dang what happened at the EOD? It's like the algos wanted to go with the Put players who had 3,287/735 volume/open interest at the 58.5; making 58puts ootm. Vs. the call players who had a volume/OI of 1,895/587 at the 58.5 so the callers lost out leaving 58.5calls ootm. Interesting battle.
Thursday, August 8, 2013:
7:18 pm: 8/8/13 Thursday: Here is a review of the TNA market profile for the past few days. Per the graphic, two days of near "p" formations, followed by a day of balance, double distribution. Subsequently, there were two days of descending selloffs, being low volume days, senior traders are on vacation it seems. These sell off days were b formations, with traders getting short in the hole. Then today was a day of balance where many traders were apparently trading in the value area.
6:54 pm: 8/8/13 Thursday: I'm reviewing Peter's premkt's notes. Last night nearly 100% of the ON inventory was net long.
BTW, yesterday was a double distribution day with a "half back" at the 1685.25 level, i.e. the 50% fib retracement dividing the profile in an almost perfect 1/2.
2:49 pm: 8/8/13 Thursday:
- I've kept similar type stats in the Total Put/Call ratio, going back to December 6, 2006. I've begun using the past two year a difference between the put/call ratio & a 5ma (I don't like graphs, I like the pure numbers).
I have found that on the upside (bullish) end it's very weak in correlation to buy points.
However, on the downside, I have noticed that whenever the (difference between the put call ratio (minus) - it 5ma) is greater than .22; it lines up very nicely with my other ratios, which gives me high probability entries.
2:27 pm: 8/8/13 Thursday:
- What's still working? EUR/USD; US Markets
What's not working? Emerging Markets (EDC: there are some that claim its bottoming... perhaps; go with what works).
BTW: For TC users, I've kept a couple years of snapshots; and a familiar scenario is happening once again (happens a few times each week the past few weeks).
I call it the compression of the TI05 values of the Triple ETFS; i.e. many of the etfs compress into a range between 99-101; then "things start happening."
Merely an observation; I'm learning that theories are a dime a dozen and the most important observation is *anything can happen.*
8/8/13 5:11am: This is my jade lizard selling the 59.5/60.5 Aug2 (1day left) call spread for 28c; also trying to sell the Aug2 56.5 Put for 35c (1day left).
Wednesday, August 7, 2013:
8/7/13 05:40am: Here is a chart, i.e. $GDXHLP from stockcharts.com that I'll be referring to on a weekly basis. The level I like to see in order to buy larger positions is the <-60 levels. Refer to your spreadsheet
8/7/13: 4:53am: Oh here's what it was, the Worden Report, i.e. Charles Evan's comments that idiot about tapering...however, the intent is to liquidate the markets. Wow 5:00am 710.456K more than what I'd expected; need to be careful since the there might be new money sellers. So I need to buy TZA!!!!
8/7/13 4:33am: Currently TNA at $57.51; it just hit the S2. It could go to S3; lower probability, I would think.
Tuesday, August 6, 2013:
10:35am 8/6/13 Tuesday: Traders left short in the hole w/ TNA
8/6/13 04:23am: Dang Everyone's on vacation, the pits are thin; even peter worden is taking time off.
8/6/13: 3:44am: Per John Carter; if one were to pass the 78.6% then there is a HIGH Probability that161.8% is gotten!
1:37 am: 8/6/13 Tuesday: Using Fari's comments to illustrate how minimally averse options buyers are to risk of late, i.e. the daily dropping of the put/call ratio. In fact since July 1, 2013, the net gain of the difference of the index put/call ratio was -.72
1:16 am: 8/6/13 Tuesday: Points of interest yesterday's VAlue Area Low & 1705 with a lot of clear air above it. Yesterday the 1705 was a double top; if we break thru above that anything can happen. 1:20 am: 8/6/13 Tuesday: Per Peter's comments yesterday, 1705 has much clear air above it; so if we can maintain momentum above that area we've got a lot space to move above it. Yesterday's Value Area Low is 1698.
Monday, August 5, 2013:
5:36am 8/5/13 Monday: Interesting note from 2006: "cycles: portfolio money managers on vacation
8/4/06: as per bob pisani in closing bell, big portfolio managers will be going on vacation from 2nd week in august for several weeks."
8:00am 8/5/13 Monday: Will 5:30 am tomorrow be the low for the VIX? Perhaps. At the start of the trading day, I should take a larger type trade on TNA, then sell it if VIX crashes down. Need to be patient. Expect a sell off type liquidation type move near the open tomorrow.
anything can happen.
Interesting how GLD has a "b" formation, i.e. sellers are selling at very bad prices.
10:29 am: 8/5/13 Monday: Poor high; sort of "P" formation except it has like a double distribution. Volume was very low today, <390K by 11am. TNA went all over the place. The vix hit new lows. BS must be talking his a** off about volatility... let him. UR done following him; once weekly is enough. Ditto for LW. LW has not helped you make anymore money; in fact, he's helped you lose more than make money.
The TNA shooting star; Faked me out, when I had the clear edge in retrospect.
What I should've done was respect tempo. I did take advantage of the opportunity: 4.9.14dreds. There was a definite edge in the uptrend. There were many variables in my favor. If I had completed this; I might have stayed in the trade.
Sunday, August 4, 2013:
4:52 am: 8/4/13 Sunday: Here's what I see regarding /GC (gold futures):
downtrending
bear flag
upcoming cycle down
India suffering
= stay away from gold; unless you are a LONG LONG Term investor... even then I would wait.
My buddy Larry Williams is telling his ppl that August is the usual strong month for GOLD so many could be buying it... adding to the volatility.
I personally would wait.
Or, invest in the U.S. Markets... the REAL bull flag. Besides my nh-nl indicators + the 25% up/25%down is very positive.
to stockbee:
As much as I'd like to restrain from posting 007's early comment *compelled me* to respond.
I'm iffy on GOLD /GC
Here's what I see regarding /GC (gold futures):
downtrending
bear flag
upcoming down cycle
Correlational Charts India (etf: EPI) downtrending
= stay away from gold; unless you are a LONG LONG Term investor... even then I would wait.
My buddy Larry Williams is telling his ppl that August is the usual strong month for GOLD so many could be buying it... adding to the volatility. I commented on my research, he said in his glib way... *well... anything can happen*
I personally would wait.
Or, invest in the U.S. Markets... the REAL bull flag. Besides my nh-nl indicators + the 25% up/25%down is very positive.
Saturday, August 3, 2013:
3:16 pm: 8/3/13 Saturday: 0411; this is the 2nd of the double top (1st: 0328); yielding a larger pull back. The 50% foforg was attained to the downside using the 0328 and 0404 points. There were four touches that broke, then retrenched this level.
Liquidations strengthens the market; short coverings weaken the market. Liquidations shakes out the weak players; because the short term money often entices other buyers to buy at bad prices; thereby making these new, often frustrated buyers, less committed buyers waiting to get their money back.
Friday, August 2, 2013:
9:49 am: 8/2/13 Friday: Locals were buying; then both sides.
Thursday, August 1, 2013:
12:16 pm: 8/1/13 Thursday: steve miller makes a very compelling point about the correlation of India to GLD, i.e. India is by far the largest consumer of GLD, b/c of jewelry. Another good indicator to tie into GLD.
9:39 am: 8/1/13 Thursday: GVZ is an inverse indicator to NUGT it seems. It spikes up; then NUGT seems to be heading south. NUGT is the pink line.
BTW: Near term low on the VIX was $12.07. Be interesting to see what happens if this scenario recurs; if there's a bounce then this could be a potential double bottom.
3:49 am: 8/1/13 Thursday: Here is a very interesting quote from Worden: (WRONG!) Market Acting a Little Tired. The stock market stayed above the unchanged level for almost the entire session, but once again finished mostly flat on the day. There were a few intraday swings in both directions, but the fluctuations remained confined to a narrow range. All of the major stock indices closed near their session lows. The market is still having trouble making any headway. We did see a pickup in total NYSE trading volume today.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013:
Please post here! :)
4:21 am: 7/31/13 Wednesday: Short term double bottom forming on TNA with a peak at $58.63. What a beautiful climb! I would normally be inclined to take a TZA position... However, I'll wait...
4:24 am: 7/31/13 Wednesday: S2. Perhaps... oops it did! (retract)
4:14 am: 7/31/13 Wednesday: Look at the USDollar /DX; pop then poop.
Bullish for stocks & commodities.
3:07 am: 7/31/13 Wednesday: posted a few items on stockbee. Need to stop. Good stuff but giving away too much. here goes..........
I've noticed a contraction of the Triple ETFs of late, no doubt having something to do with today's critical FOMC release at 2 PM EST.
I expect action to come about, since in previous situations, a clear direction is gotten for at least a day or so; opening up potential R3 or S1 trades. BTW, July 24, 2013 was a large S3 trade for me.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013:
13:30pm 7/30/13 Tuesday: Felt good about the trades; did what I had to do and got out unscathed. Tomorrow will be a very interesting day with interesting divergences. The market is giving absolutely no clue of what could happen. However, if I were to go with the nh-nl it would indicate a bullish scenario.
The best path to follow is one of patience. It's a mid-week scenario and there is a day after to correct any bad trades. Go in lightly if at all. Remember easier to remedy a 50share trade than a 1600 share trade. And you can average down with TNA. However, follow the flow.
I am very interested of the first reads.
3:23 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: good stuff; just closed TNA premarket getting a +$432 gain. Vs. a loss!!!! woohoo.
So what did right? Closing it with a profit.
However, things I could've done was wait... be patient. Also get the correct view on TNA wr2 the TPO.
2:55 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: This premarket read is music to my eyes! :)
2:44 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: dx continues to weaken, i.e. showing weakness in the premarket, which should bode well for stocks and commodities.
2:27 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: What a strange divergence, the VIX also seems to have a "b" formation, albeit compacted vs. the TNA. TNA has the longer excess high.
Remember your remark to Brian about the drop in the VIX which he poo poo'd? Why even write him about such matters? Write yourself on this blog instead.
2:24 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: Some key data is being released. Here's a report from RedOption:
- "U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open on optimism regarding the second quarter earnings season. The Bulls look like they want to make another run at $1700 in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) but another failure could spur some downside risk in the near-term. Investors will be poring over balance sheets and listening to companies' commentary for clues about the business outlook in the second half of the year. They will also be examining economic data in order to gauge the health of the overall economy. Today the Case/Shiller home price report and a consumer confidence reading are slated to be released."
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose over 5% yesterday as stocks were weak for most of the session. The trend of lower equity prices early and an afternoon rally took hold again but stocks still finished in the red. The ‘Fear Gauge’ was up 9% at one point but gave back some gains into the close. We are still looking for the VIX to get above $15 for any confirmation of a pull-back in equities. One note of interest is the weakening small-cap sector as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) underperformed the overall market again. The sector led our recent rally and will most likely lead the next move for stocks."
1:58 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: Look at my Sunday 28 July post, i.e. the traders were LONG in the hole on TNA.... sh*t. I read the signals correctly. I need to read my past posts, I'm prescient on these reads. Continue to read as such.
As for yesterday, it looks as though traders were in the "b" formation, i.e. short in the hole on TNA. We'll see how this bears out.
Also note that we'd closed below the POC. There was an excess high on this bearish day for TNA. Peter and Brad called yesterday an "inside day," however, I do not find that the case.
Here's an interesting quote that liquidation breaks "strengthen the market" taking out the weak buyers, while short covering weakens the market.
1:56 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: Making the alerts on TNA; looking at $58.25 as possible trade. Need to remain proactive and positive.
1:56 am: 7/30/13 Tuesday: Making the alerts on TNA; looking at $58.25 as possible trade. Need to remain proactive and positive. I alluded to the "p" formation. Yesterday, on Monday, there was a "b" formation, suggesting perhaps that traders were indeed short in the hole, so there is a probability of the market edging higher on this FOMC day. Tomorrow is the day Bernanke reports.
Bearing in mind that today starts the FOMC meeting, I would think it'd be wise to watch and wait. And be open to keeping my trades as two sided trade. Tomorrow, 7/31 is when bernanke delivers the message.
Regarding TNA today, the 58.14-.16 levels are very key levels with regards to multi-time frame fibonaccis.
Monday, July 29, 2013:
If the market builds value in the $57.51 region; then We'll be developing a letter b formation; and the "traders will be indeed short in the hole."
(btw: 6:04 am: 7/29/13 Monday: TNA is now $57.23; was $57.06ish) Be ready to purchase TZA.
Sunday, July 28, 2013:
5:51 pm: 7/28/13 Sunday: This is a retro-view, the traders on Friday, 7/26/13 were caught at the EOD, "LONG in the hole," on an "inside candle."
5:32 pm: 7/28/13 Sunday: I'm of the opinion that if the Overnight Low is either the 50% or 61.8% fib, then it'll be fkry tomorrow especially if the volume is low.
Be ready for the 426.8% off the ORG.
3:05 pm: 7/28/13 Sunday: Expect some craziness on TNA since Friday was an upclose; however, it was an inside day (highlighted by light colored rectangle). Somewhat of a "p" formation.
Saturday, July 27, 2013:
7/27/13 8:20 am Saturday: JC parets also covered on his weekend video the KRE (regional banks etf). He Noted KRE is at the resistive(my term) 161.8% fib. He noted the "shooting star" formation; and designated it per his description as the empire state (building) formation, i.e. high topping with a flagpole peak.
7/27/13 8:24 am Saturday: JC alluded to his blog post sharing this idea of a potential short, topping pattern; however it drew zero interest. He likes it when no one is interested in an idea, i.e. it's at the forefront. Remember GRPN & bs? He shot down the idea.
7/27/13 8:01 am Saturday: JC parets of allstar charts looks more at the slope of the chart. JC likes the slope being upwards.
He pointed out that his intern pointed out the BEAUTIFUL bull flag in the XRT. Awaiting the breakout & JC likes the etf vs. individual names. He likes the diversification.
Here's why the XRT is desirable vs. RTH. WMT, HD, AMZN amongst others are close to 50% of the RTH. XRT is a 1% per stock, i.e. it's diversified.
5:14 am: 7/27/13 Saturday: Refer to diagram:
7/27/13 8:24 am Saturday: JC alluded to his blog post sharing this idea of a potential short, topping pattern; however it drew zero interest. He likes it when no one is interested in an idea, i.e. it's at the forefront. Remember GRPN & bs? He shot down the idea.
7/27/13 8:01 am Saturday: JC parets of allstar charts looks more at the slope of the chart. JC likes the slope being upwards.
He pointed out that his intern pointed out the BEAUTIFUL bull flag in the XRT. Awaiting the breakout & JC likes the etf vs. individual names. He likes the diversification.
Here's why the XRT is desirable vs. RTH. WMT, HD, AMZN amongst others are close to 50% of the RTH. XRT is a 1% per stock, i.e. it's diversified.
******************
5:14 am: 7/27/13 Saturday: Refer to diagram:
- 1: Small head bottoming tail.
- Then large reversal candle followed by another bullish candle.
- 2. Draw Fibonaccis. In a thinly traded day, you will get filled!
- 3. 50%, 61.8% & 78.6% are great targets!
If we were to use the candle to the immediate right of the red reversal candle, we'd get a 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
Friday, July 26, 2013:
Friday ssh note:
********LID pm: 7/26/13 Friday Evaluation: Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!: 3.6.28dred on the LID (11:21am read). No edge at this point. However, you would've had the edge at the 4:52am time slot.
LID pm: 7/26/13 Friday TC: Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!:
Here's something very interesting, i.e. the nhTC jumped up +175; watch out bears! however, the 5/10/50.t2108 all dropped. Interesting divergence; my monies on nh-nl! :).
If you had kept the TNA from the 4:52am hour; you could've held it over the weekend....IMO.
wr2 etfs: compression from 100(tza/nugt) to 99(tna) 98(dust); where TZA is now >TNA; and NUGT is just slightly> DUST. So the word is compression of the ti05 of the triple etfs.
tc2: bsky/5ma10sma: Interesting how the 10D stocks <10sma backed off (eid was 3097; then dropped to 2841). so the bsky ended: 51%/-2.7%; vs. a weak 47%/-2.7%eid. Yester it was 57%/-2.7%.
the 4/4 rebounded from a -6 to +5. However, it's still diminishing; which explains the increase in ti05 of tZA.
the 25/25 is indeed sensitive; very much so. the 25%up rose back to 1016 (form 1007eid) and the 25%down dropped from 196eid to 191. diffy was 825 vs. 811eid and 915yester. Regardless, there is erosion in the primary MM.
the 5050 rose back from 11eid to 13.What's with this?
The 34/13 underwent a similar process to the 25/25; i.e. the bull & bear ends adjusted for a net gain from 1230eid to 1381; however it was <yester's 1420.
LID pm: 7/26/13 Friday MI: Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!: The es ended positive, which is amazing up +4. The nhspx crawled to a 48 down from 84yester; up from 32eid. The mc15/24/3 all improved vs. yesterday. Also in convergence, the mc243 & iday both ended positive, i.e. +18 & +13.
However, breadth ended negative to neutrual (-1s on both).
LID pm: 7/26/13 Friday etfs: Watch bsky iday diffy <-3%!:
TNA cut its losses in half to -90c vs. -1.86eid. The drop in the es dpoc was dramatic!.
DUST is showing much resilience; bouncing from the lower levels & finishing strong. There are opps to trade it interday. However, be mindful of the dx which lost another minus29c-.
Regarding the dpocs: es dropped -3.63; while the tna gained 0.08. Also the DAX is showing continued weakness, losing another minus54-.
However, the nyhl improved from 58eid to 85; ending up better vs. 80yester.
es volume at 11am was just .634million.
*************interesting blog!
7:46 am: 7/26/13 Friday: On the top picture, TNA looked headed for the 261.8% fib, 8.3. $58.81 level. However, it developed a shooting start at the 161.8% (58.57) level and in the subsequent 10 minutes (two 5 minute candles) it began showing signs of consolidation & even weakening.
The 5 minute shooting star occurred about the 7:25mark. And my entry at the 7:32am mark was that TNA was "perching at the 161.8% fib ORG ($58.57). However, by the 10-15th minute thereafter, TNA began to fail (see graphic below).
However, by the 10-15th minute thereafter, TNA began to fail (see graphic below).
8:06 am: 7/26/13 Friday: TNA did its retest of the levels above (78.6% at $58.36) after rebounding from the powerful 61.8% FR at $58.32. (8:11 am: 7/26/13 Friday: algo bs: TNA just broke above the $58.41 level, i.e. top of the gap; with some solid momo. heading to the 161.8% (58.57)
8:10 am: 7/26/13 Friday: Interesting this 8:10am TNA solid candle bar spike. As noted, TNA's candle looked to being a solid MOMO type to surge past the 161.8% fibonacci. However, after crossing the 161.8 it receded back, resulting into a long topping tail candle.
8:17 am: 7/26/13 Friday: Now here is the TNA re-entry back into the gap.
TNA subsequently after this juke; faded.
*************from an earlier thread today! :) v v v v
7:21 am: 7/26/13 Friday: Here is my trade for today, that I'd made after successfully & happily closing the TZA dog trade.
I opened this TNA near its low. My first bid was at $57.41; however, that was not taken and I did my dance while TNA snuck up to %7.61; I was too late. There are so many momo players right now at at TNA's back, that I've got to give it some "liberty or trust." vs. taking the contrarian TZA trade, w hich QUICKLY took any bids I threw at it.
TNA played hard to get.
I bot TNA at $57.65 and got shaken out of it at 5:51am at $57.85; currently it's at $58.53 close to $1 more. I closed the trade too early in the morning (currently it's 7:24 am: 7/26/13 Friday: ; just got a TNA alert to sell? at $58.57).
Today, I used the base of the gap to the top of the morning peak to determine fibonacci retracements & TNA returned to just past the 61.8% and almost touching the top of the gap. It seems that these two resistance points were too much for it to overcome at the time. (7:08 am: 7/26/13 Friday: However it did overcome it: currently at $58.48; btw: Value is at $58.17; so it's trading above value).
Thursday, July 25, 2013:
3:21 am: 7/25/13 Thursday: needs to be before midday. Need to follow the plan to get on board on TZA. Read the signals, see the reds.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013:
12:09 pm: 7/24/13 Wednesday: According to Brad Auganus 25 percent of all SNP 500 stock report this week for earnings.
9:51 am: 7/24/13 Wednesday: Currently, it looks bleak; the pattern formation could occur, but we'll see. There could be a double bottom if the price trend improves. iff... 9:52 am: 7/24/13 Wednesday: Currently TNA at 57.67. Bad habits again. TOS must be feeding the mm on my position since TNA continues downwards with less than 8 minutes left. I'll hold it overnite.
8:43 am: 7/24/13 Wednesday: BTW ONH today was $60.29. Remember what Peter says: it's rare that market tops occur in the overnight session; market tops occur in excess in the RTH (regular trading hours).
BTW: Focus only on the arrows in the two columns to the right. Finally, bottom right suggesting "bottoming tail hammer," with perhaps a 5 minute RHS? Which should bring me back to the $58.69 level.
3:44 am: 7/24/13 Wednesday: Looks to be a more bearish day; tna dropping to 59.25 levels starting ini at 60.15. the a/d dropped below -233. tna will react as fast if not faster than the ticks.
Tuesday, July 23, 2013:
4:58 am: 7/23/13 Tuesday: Peter commented on the overnight low stopping right at the previous day's POC.
4:26 am: 7/23/13 Tuesday: Possible traders getting short in the hole scenario on the market profile; for TNA at 59.47.
4:01 am: 7/23/13 Tuesday: Perturbed that I didn't take the close at the $60.08 level. The market offered me & I didn't budge, knowing market momo is at my back. Which is a good thing. Not so important to always trade frequently, b/c the less I trade the better my trades are. Need to consult my MM> . BTW: I'm sure that the T2108 will be moving towards the 80 level soon. And when it does, then the market has topped.
Monday, July 22, 2013:
7:40 pm: 7/22/13 Monday: Here are a series of market profile dating back to 7/5/13. The profile for today is one of balance.
I've highlighted similar balanced type profiles and the profiles that preceded this particular "balance" profile.
I'm confident that the profile is indeed bullish. Today's profile was preceded by two days of balance.
7:05 pm: 7/22/13 Monday: BTW the XIV did a 261.8 foforg dip yield a break down to the 78.6% ang 61.8% fibs. Except money wise, it's only a few cents.
John Carter's play on gold is that it'll reach the 1400 level then poop until come October.
6:37 pm: 7/22/13 Monday: VIX recapped a notable drop; so I would think the SVXY had a great day. SVXY rose to the 423.6% FORG to 101.47 up 2.33, i.e. up 2.35%. Yes it's a 5 minute chart.
The instrument is a low volume instrument trading just 450K shares per day. Stay away! UVXY at least does 3.5 million shares. BTW XIV did 9.5 millions shares. Awesome!
5:57pm 7/22/13: Yes Guru was dead wrong on GLD.
Sunday, July 21, 2013:
12:43 pm: 7/21/13 Sunday: There are times like these where I think Guru has absolutely no clue.
Saturday, July 20, 2013:
7:42 pm: 7/20/13 Saturday: There existed an odd convergence of MAs of the /dx and the /tf from 6/26/13 to 7/8/13.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywcFBUNkJJYmpWMzQ/edit?usp=sharing
- 6:23 pm: 7/20/13 Saturday: I had used the last swing low on 4/18/13 to previous swing high of 3/15/13, which yielded a fibonacci 161.8% threshold of $49.76.
- It took FIVE attempts for TNA to eventually overcome this 161.8% short term fib.
- Interesting, there was a descending TL forming a wedge with 161.8; however, it was the upper range of the DAY channel forming a "crossroads" with the descending trendline that keyed the subsequent breakout on 7/5/13 (candle above descending TL).
- Key time related aspects:
- Date (trading day following 4th of july)
- Upper channel crossroads
- 3:59 pm: 7/20/13 Saturday: Here are Peter Reznicek and Brad Auganus' takes on trendlines for Thursday & Friday's ES reads.
- Method 1: Peter used the adjacent high to Thursday's anchor as his connecting poing for his 15 minute charts on the es futures. The ES price broke this trendline.
- Method 2: Similarly, for Peter's method 2: Peter used the same anchor, however, he used the HOD at the time, then swung down to the next HOD (to the candle's left) and used that as the 2nd reference for his TL. This trendline was also broken to the upside.
- The take coming from this was that the uptrend was still intact.
- As for Brad's take (oops, I used the wrong anchor, should've been the OR 15 minute candle; however, the angle will be just slightly different.
- The later BLUE, was at the reference CANDLE and drawn thru a swing low doji; and even that was surpassed to the upside by the ES futes.
- The gray ovals delineate the surpassing candles (15 minute) that broke thru Peter's TLs.
- The most interesting candle was the gray oval furthest to the RIGHT, i.e. subsequent to that candle, there was the crossroads of the green and blue TLs. Subsequent to this "crossroad," was the spike higher at the EOD. The market makers tried their best to cover this.
Peter also drew to trend lines that would be desending from the top. The highs of yesterday was drawn to second High Point adjacent to this initial High Point.
Using the same initial point, Peter connected this initial point to the High Point of today's Friday value area.
8:10 am: 7/20/13 Saturday: Remember what works. What works: one. Writing your thoughts down with the pen pencil and your tablet. Documenting events in the time oriented sequence.
Posting your thoughts in your blog your blog allows you to mindfully make good decisions. As a result of using your blog, you were able to get the insight on $NUGT.
You had used the one hour moving averages view, and noticed the series of bull flags.
You then used the Fibonacci tool to discover that the retracements went to the 78.6% level before bouncing back to the upside .
I could use this as my confirmation, i.e. when it passes the 78.6% fib; then I can go with the trade.
Friday, July 19, 2013:
10:08 am: 7/19/13 Friday: very interesting what the locals did, i.e. went long during that drop near the open (see the #1 number); btw that was the ORG 161.8% downward fib at the open.
9:38 am: 7/19/13 Friday: NUGT in the recent sequences of bull flags have been retracing back to the 78.6% from the top of the flags. So next retracement is to $6.13; currently at $6.53.
be sure to recalibrate the high! You currently have just the initial flag pole, which might not be the high.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywUU9uYmVTU3ZMZE0/edit?usp=sharing
9:05am (retroview): 3:31 am: 7/19/13 Friday: evaluation: the goog/msft bummer was your ticket for good profits in this bullish scenario. the morning obell read of 5.5.13dreds following a low dred read yesterday was more than telling.
btw: NUGT up to $6.49; great call!
8:30 am: 7/19/13 Friday: Yessss!!!! Nice execution, anything can happen. NUGT to $6.44; I closed it at $6.35. I was indeed patient.
6:37 am: 7/19/13 Friday: Today's low was $12.95; however, the drop to $12.32 and perhaps lower opens the door for $UVXY buy? These are notes that I'm putting into my alerts to get me mindful of why I'd put such alerts. BTW, NUGT is rallying, while the /DX is fading -27c again; and below S2 at $82.70, i.e. $82.685. S3 is $82.507...
6:33 am: 7/19/13 Friday: either 2day's 50%fib at $58.17 or the 61.8% $58.14 will be the support for the fast action. If this happens before 8:30am; especially if price is eroding. wait for the pivots.
6:09 am: 7/19/13 Friday: Looks to me that TNA has followed a pattern of double bottoms; the most recent scenario is that of a c&h with a top of $6.64. Am I willing to tough it out? Perhaps. I would like TNA in the 58.30s; expecting a pop to $59.50s. Also expecting a pop of $NUGT to $6.64. It's currently building value.
5:58 am: 7/19/13 Friday: Interesting how TNA is following the TL furthest to the left at this PIT (point in time).
5:12 am: 7/19/13 Friday: today's 161.8% tna v ^foforg play: If I'd followed my alert, buying at 58.61; I would've been able to scalp to $58.91-98 so a 30-37c scalp. x 600: $186 to $222; or $310 to $370 for the 1K lot.
However, if I'd done the 3:50am low 58.03; i.e. the 161.8%foforg roundtrip; that could've been even more profitable, i.e. 88c to 94c.
600sh: $528 to $564; for the 1K lot: 880 to 940. This is the market for the decisive trader.
3:31 am: 7/19/13 Friday: etfs: Good, developing the mindset. If I get an alert, my questions are:
1) what are the internals?
2) what are the ticks?
Interesting (4:47 am: 7/19/13 Friday) how the DX is tanking losing 28c; yet NUGT just stays about $6.22ish; I guess it already had its spike.
Thursday, July 18, 2013:
6:49 am: 7/18/13 Thursday: chose to leave the TZA trade at +42-15; +27. sold at the vwap; didn't want to hold onto it. will instead wait for TNA to drop. then enter. TNA at $58.98. 6:53 am: 7/18/13 Thursday: Interesting the ETFS are not as compressed and the bullish ones have expanded to the upside. However, qld/qid are engaged at the 100 level. Interesting! (Reviewing the tc).
4:25 am: 7/18/13 Thursday: interesting battle being wages at the 2nd, now 3rd level pivot points in TNA & NUGT/DUST.
Today's uptrend has not had much 1K ticks to confirm it.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013:
3:47 pm: 7/17/13 Wednesday: compression of etfs: something is about to happen. 101:qld/tqqq/soxl/fas/tna/dgaz 100:spxu/sys/nugt/shery/dug/erx/sso/upro
12:46 pm: 7/17/13 Wednesday: MI: mildly bullish; remember after looking at the diffy internals; if the a/d is bullish/bearish; you need the 1K+/- ticks to confirm it per Peter!
10:11 am: 7/17/13 Wednesday: very interesting observations; first I was correct on my $NUGT assessment using the "b" formation. However, I chose to close it unprofitably, getting sucked into the sales pitch of the market. should've listened to "value."
10:30 am: 7/17/13 Wednesday: after entering at 6.28; NUGT tanked; and could tank to $5.48; if so, then I'll buy 1K; if it tanks to 4.70ish then I'll buy another 1K.
Tuesday, July 16, 2013:
6:43 am: 7/16/13 Tuesday: Interesting day for NUGT up very nicely; playing the wrong side of the trade, i.e. DUST. Should've taken the TNA low ball trade. (and it turned out my "b" formation reversal was correct; I got OO the trade, via shaken out; when I could've had a profit) ;)
3:58 am: 7/16/13 Tuesday: Not sure of the route; nyhl went 143 to 199; so it can't be absolutely bad; I'd wait. From the price action of TZA/TNA could be either a bear trap or a bull trap; looks like a bear trap. Locals seem to be picking up the bid.
3:24am 7/16/13 Tuesday: Possible that today could be the day of correction.
Sunday, July 14, 2013:
15:59pm: 7/14/13 Sunday: Had to do some maintenance on the calculation functions of the spreadsheet; occasionally it seems to develop bugs in the formatting or in the calculations themselves. Today in particular, had to fix the formatting on the put call ratio.
Saturday, July 13, 2013:
11:40am: 7/13/13 Friday:
Here is the marketClub rules:
- "The 52-Week New Highs On a Friday Rule"
Here are the three rules you need to trade:Rule #1: On a new 52-week high when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy and go home long for the weekend.Rule #2: Exit long position on the opening the following Tuesday.Rule #3: If the market opens sharply lower on Monday, exit this position immediately.There you have it. These are the only three rules you need to trade The 52-Week New Highs on a Friday Rule successfully."The 52-Week New Highs On a Friday Rule" extremely well in both Futures and Forex markets.
10:33am: discussion of this past week wr2 MM w/ bsky.
- From what I was told back then, IIRC; Larry was very hot already; he had superior knowledge of the Commitment of Traders, well before anyone. He was well connected politically (Ronald Reagan, who was already suffering from senile dementia back then, with Nancy using her psychic running the White House.
- President Reagan deferred much to his staff; Larry knew a LOT of stuff that in my mind had much to do with his trading. Not sure which commodities he focused on; however.... did you know that members of the Congress? Imagine the amount of info that passes thru the Oval Desk (which is why Barack keeps this market up).
- http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/raj-rajaratnam-galleon-insider-trading-rajaratnam/10/13/2011/id/37373?page=full
- You remember my comment in November 2012 about the "plunge protection team," that Guru promptly shut down ; well it might not be exactly formal action; however, it is indeed a series of well orchestrated events to support the Market. Barack must've studied President Reagan's MO. (If he had followed Jimmy Carter's he would not have been re-elected: 16% interest rates yow!!!!).
- So amazing as Larry's accomplishments were, he did have the edge.
- Imagine, a congressional member on a key committee, that has its bearings onto a drug trial or medicare laws for that matter (relating to documentation). I'm in the medical field & I see how much of a game it is.
- So my true edge is to trade ONE vehicle (for the most part), with all my alerts keeping attuned to the signals
- Following Signals
- = high probability of success;
- Following the noise
- = high probability of failure).
- And to keep my PFB function at maximal capacity.
- Hey check out this audiobook! Your Brain at Work by David Rock:
- http://www.audible.com/pd/ref=sr_1_1?asin=B004S3GJYQ&qid=1373743508&sr=1-1
- Very easy concepts for lay people to understand. Invaluable for anyone.
- What I'd communicated to you re: UR knowledge is based on my experience of your numbers. BTW; there is so much emphasis of moving averages, complex mathematical schemes, etc. Why not use simple arithmetic? A friend of mine's told me he got the signal to go LONG on the market on 7/10/13, based on the given leader of a particular website.
- I shook my head... thinking late. Let's see vbbee's signal came on 7/11/13 (2nd day for the MM 5 day rule).
- Look at the numbers below: the 25/25 difference (ala @Riverside's comment; stay long as long as 25%+Quarter is > 25%-Quarter); I've simply made a derivative column showing the difference (diffy... hey make it fun! !).
- Hey you must be onto something 3 of the 4 of my first "telling columns" relate to your concepts. You already have the gold(en knowledge) in your possession, others possess copper.
- Here's one column you need to add... the bsky interday diffy (i.e. the difference between days... you spot the "spikes (another blue concept, used with the nh-nl)".
- Please look below, the Red dates were the days one should've liquidate... this is my retrospective view, i.e. backdating (red triangles in the cells are my terse notes). June 27 (Thursday) the bsky IDay diffy spikked to 22% (i.e. that day it was 57%, previous day was 35%)... OVERBOT when considering all other numbers in my tabulation page, i.e. 3dark reds + 1 red = 4reddies (I know UR rolling UR eyes back... hey I remember it.. all the data is the complex stuff).
- So what's my point? lol My BUY signal on my system was 7/2/13: we had a spike in dreds (7) & reddies (reds + dark reds = 14)
- Here's my quick annotation of the info: 7.14.29 (stands for 7 dark reds (dreds) of 14 reddies of the total 29 columns).
- ...on 7/1/13 there were just 1.4.29, i.e. one dark red with four total reddies of the 29 columns. This gives me the QUICK PFB saving analysis (leaving my PFB for the high demand, intuitive function, looking at the fibonacci levels). The alerts are my scouts, that constantly feed me info....
- On this same date there was a bsky interday spike of +13% (2nd column from the left); besides (I may have noted it in the sbee queue... btw this note will be going into my personal blog.)
- Also on 7/1/13, the bsky %>10sma/5ma of the 10sma jumped to 73%/9.3% IMO adding to the argument of overbot.
- Thursday 7/11/13, the bsky 10sma was at 78%, the bsky interday diffy jumped to 8%; however, the 5ma was only 1.7%... so not tremendously overbot. I closed the majority of my TNA on thursday & ran with house's money to Friday's open. (held overnight... order to close wasn't filled on 7/10/13)
- I didn't like the action and the intraday MM of mine's suggested choppiness (verified by Friday's 11:00 /ES futures contracts of 500K matching Wednesday's low (<500K).
- So I opened my TZA long (I got a low ball fill at $26.14; closed it at $26.45; when I was spooked by stkb2009's TNA entry... stkb's been friggin' HOT with his calls!!!!).
- What's in store for next week? I think bullish. However, the nh-nl are going south (slightly), so a liquidation seems inevitable. I think the market may spike Monday morning & I'll decide just past the open & 11am EST what to do.... good luck my buddy! Aloooooooooooooooooha!
- Unfortunately & fortunately some of this data needs to be gotten via non-downloadable, external sources (i.e. beyond TC, TOS). Seriously, this is to my advantage, we live in a downloadable world; ppl have forgotten to type in data. Remember, whenever groups of traders (however large), trade in a similar manner, the "dark forces (algorithms)" become enabled. And we do not have a clue of its agenda. This is my way of circumventing the algorithms, i.e. Market Momentum ala Pradeep, et al.
- Secondly, I trade ONE instrument (yeah occasionally a few others... however, in respect to my mentor Mark Douglas, I have committed myself to be an expert in TNA.
- Don't you LOVE the triples? TNA, FAS (yes & NUGT) trades BIG (volume) #s each day; very easy to hide (Be a Ninja). And even if you screw up one day... you can recover! (Yes I saw TZA recover... beauty of the Triples... as long as you are on the correct side of the range).
3:00am 7/13/13 Saturday: Email sent to bluesky
- Thanks Blue:
- Marcille's system does indeed work. HOWEVER, her system is a segway to day trading and likewise a pathway to overtrading.
- Marcille's system (don't you LOVE her voice? ) precludes one to engage into the system. There lies the "crack cocaine" of trading, i.e. the hypnotic engagement of a video monitor. I have found that totally engaging oneself in price action, opens the door to the mind games of the trading algorithms.
- My best trades have been entry at the low ends of the trading range; VERY similar to your RS end range trades. Also, my best trades (& it's often only a few cents OFF the lows) are predefined limit order. Anyone can better themselves at this.
- Step one:
- Stop watching the tick by tick action; instead set alerts; save your "pre-frontal brain function (PFBF) for more important decisions (this is so important, PFBF is a limited commodity affected by sleep, stress, time & health). Watching the monitor constantly drains one of this valuable resource... leading to bad trading decisions. Use fibonaccis & Alerts!
I do rely heavily on the fibonacci levels. In fact much like Carolyn Boroden, I do fibs on fibs. She IS much more advanced than I'll ever hope to be. http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/
Be careful however, of installing her free video installation programs; it has TONS of spyware (yes... from personal experience). Carolyn is a great resource. Even though I only occasionally trade individual issues, I've learned so much of using the Fibonacci.Once you've defined your fibonacci levels, know where you are TIME WISE on the trading day. I often take off ALL limit orders by 11:30 am est. I'll wait for the 2:00 or 2:30pm (or defer to a "low ball" limit order." I take the point of view that every trade entry I make, give the algorithms more information. Often, if you enter low, the algos will take your trade & immediately drop lower for 1 minute or less. Play with them by buying more, only seems to drop the price lower. So I defer to my predefined limit orders.
2. Monitor the /ES level volume at 11:00am EST: I've referred to this several times in sbee, if the price is <1 million contracts at 5:00am, then it's low volume. If the volume is <1mil contracts, then be ready for the: "Fallen leaf in the stirring winds" scenario. (I've called it numerous other things.... U get the point ). When this is the scenario, then price fluctuations are highly probable. If the price of TNA/TZA... FAS... whatever... is lying dormant, then you can expect: "undercurrents." The market in the midday likes to sucker traders into buying the mid-range (where there's absolutely NO edge). I put my buy limit orders at the 50% & 61.8% (of my adapted use of fibs... adapted b/c so many traders use fibs). During this "Fallen leaf in the stirring winds" scenario, pricing do the skewed version of "anything can happen!" Prices literally shake investors who are on the "wrong side of the channel."
3. Be aware of the Pivot points. If the S2 coincides with a 50%/61.8% level; I'll put a scaling in trade in. BTW as you know, you make the most money by holding the position for a few days. Remember my "losing $NUGT" trade? I ended up making a nice profit on it; however, more importantly it focused me on making better trades (e.g. "Dusted").4. Positive focus; positive mindset begets positive intuitive focus. mhp has no clue on intuition; his system is computer mechanical; not intuitive mechanical.
My sentries are my alerts. You ONLY get better them more you use them. You become almost "prescient & intuitive" of where stock want to go. & WITHOUT INVESTING anything other than time........ Oops... I didn't mean it that way. Time is the most important commodity, its ONE thing that you can NEVER retrieve.
I like Marcille's system; however, I personally think you've got ALL the tools ALREADY. More than enough for that matter. At what point does the seeker of information, now becomes a literal source & wealth there of? I personally think you've reached that level, if not surpassed it. That is my vote of confidence to you. I personally & strongly feel, at this given moment, that you have ALL the tools to surpass any benefits that Marcille's system could offer you. Why? Because as Marco (@mpraps) has written, it's your system.
Nobody knows your system, better than you. Who knows, like Larry Williams, you could be marketing your program 20 years from now (lol: tongue in cheek; however, that's how Larry started in the 1960s... with a supreme passion for excellence).
btw got several emails encouraging me to write; commenting that mhp didn't mean any ill will.
Much like how @Sid used to (infrequently, months ago) snipe at my posts (like I had no clue), mhp likes to carry an air of superiority b/c of his tradestation background. The past few months, I have rarely read his posts b/c they are totally irrelevant to my concerns (although acknowledging his contributions on the queu).
mhp's schema, i.e. the computerized mechanization of trades are "not real" to the typical stockbee subscriber. For that matter, it's "not real," for the investing world in general. If I have a problem understanding or accepting mhp's system, believe me... others will; simply because I'm so OCD about everything (such as this note ).
Ever since the Knight Capital Debacle, financial systems seemed to have scaled back on their reliance on the mechanized algorithmic trading. http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/14/supercomputer-stock-trading-robots-whats-overblown/
Interesting... it was about that time that mhp came to stockbee. I wonder......... (lol in thot.... We all come to stockbee for a reason, perhaps mhp's reason was a large drawdown due to uncontrolled mechanical scheme? Perhaps? Anything could have happened... ).
Back to more important matters, we are trying to flatten the steep learning curve for newbies. In the process of giving, we seem to empower ourselves... odd. John Wooden once said in a coaching clinic: Giving is the highest form of receiving... (very cool guy).
In a way, it was good mhp interjected........ I was in a path to dissect my system for everyone to follow. And once a "personal" system is disseminated it becomes less effective, b/c the increased numbers of traders that trade in a "like manner, will in & of itself alert the algorithms."
Algorithms look for patterned trading behavior; and volume is its main sensor. Which is why I do not post my levels of entries PRIOR to my trades (used to give my set up trades to a colleague, who used to post it on Twitter (unbeknownst to me). Which explained why my entries became skewed.... i.e. rather than entry then up, it's be entry & drop further... & similar oddities would occur).... sorry off track
BTW & Oddly: whenever I take these "retreats from posting," I become more "enabled & focused" on developing the nuances of trading. During that time of posting (I'm OCD ) I ignored several alerts that I'd set, that would've gotten me into my "lightning" sequence (TNA in & out)" before the weekend. I'm not so sure that I would've avoided that EOD drop. So I thank the stars.
Yes, as I've indicated I respect algorithms (yet not afraid of them), slippage and commissions. There were numerous years, I wished I had been the broker... oh yes another thing.... Our own brokers seem to be in collusion against our trades.... hey it's a business; which is why I use predefined limit orders.)
Off the wall reference:
yer hawaiian buddy ron.... it's all about ohana
- Blue, hope this helps my friend: Larry was perturbed about this video when it first came out.
- http://www.surefiretradingchallenge.com/wpr_vid/
- Here's also some documentation that you might be interested in.
- http://www.surefiretradingchallenge.com/williams.html
- above graph are the simple sma
- pink = 3 sma
- purple = 8 sma
- oscillators below graph:
- pink = rsi 2
- purple = %R14
- Marcille's sell signals:
- Here is her way of selling:
- Step A: First the two oscillators need to cross below the -20 line
- Step B: Next, wait for the 3 sma to cross under the 8 sma;
- After seeing the 3 sma crossing under the 8 sma
- She immediately checks to see if the oscillators ARE close together; otherwise the trade is risky, i.e. it comes back at you.
- This next trade is a possibility; HOWEVER, the Purple Williams line is below the RSI; for a short trade the Williams needs to be above the RSI.
- Here is an example of another good trade.
- A. Initially, when the Oscillators cross the -80 line, they are far apart; however,
- B. When the SMA lines (3 crosses the 8) above, the Oscillator lines are now converged.
- C. Close here when the 3 sma, goes under the 8 sma.
- In my case I might just use the Williams divergence (widening from the RSI).
Tuesday, July 9, 2013:
8:48 am: 7/9/13 Tuesday: I could be wrong, however, IMO this was a high probability trade that I had to take:
- TZA violated S3;
- MM-pthots: suggested oversold
- Adapted use of the fibonacci retracements have given me good entry points; the 50% gave me a $27.68; my entry was $27.69.
Got a Q on why close the TZA trade:
- Was profitable;
- TZA can be a very bipolar intERday hold.
- NYHL rose in the the last 1/2 hour.
And as luck would have it, TZA dropped from a the subsequent post trade high of $27.99 down to the close of $27.82.
Sunday, July 7, 2013:
5:33 pm: 7/7/13 Sunday: John Carter recommends that when going further out on certain option plays do NOT own options inside of 56 days; due to theta decay (Oh that's the secret!!!!). When it gets near there he simply rolls it out.
best: >:
http://tinyurl.com/jcarter56DayDKrule
https://ja125.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/9933/53b2fa95a75cda21/6637275/172f86d4ee316e5d
http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/6028/s4h.jpg
Saturday, July 6, 2013:
2:07am review of yesterday's trading: I had reported yesterday's es volume as >1 million by 11:00am est. However, more than half of that 1 million volume was pre-market.
And by 11:30am many of the traders were heading out the door. There were just another 600K of es trading for the rest of the day
Similarly for the miner's etf, $NUGT much of the volume was at the bookends (front & tail end of the day). Volume for $NUGT, however, exceeded its 30 dma.
Friday, July 5, 2013:
11:53 am: 7/5/13 Friday: Nice things about these etfs: it's "run by predictable algorithms;" i.e. as long as you're at the low or high end of the channel; the low ends seemed to be moderated (vs. trading it in the middle of the range). Bear in mind however, large orders can change the flow of these algorithms, especially midday near the low end of the range. Very interesting stuff.
So now it's a 3c loss so far at $5.08.
Lesson learnt re: NUGT:
My time frames are pretty accurate........ except I'm a day early.... wait (as Blue once stated in sbee).
Forget the interday gap plays on $NUGT; play the intraday scalps; my fibs were accurate as to the low points of NUGT.... well actually I was off by 6c (bot off the $4.67 lows at $4.73..... eh.... nobody's perfect.
Play the 2:30pm or 5 minute ORG (opening range gap).
12:01am 7/5/13 Friday:
@007: I don't have a covered room & instead I have a hammock under a coconut tree, occasionally dodging the falling fronds & coconuts.
Besides my balmy dodging, I've been staring off & on, between family gatherings; at this MM for the past 1/2 day.
The divergence intrigues me:
Bearish: nh-nl (progressively lessening), /ES futes flipflopping.
Bullish: while the /TF (Russell 2K futes), BPNYA lessening difference (diffy in pthot-ese); increasing T2108. Also the put call ratio has dropped below 1; indicative of investors feeling less inclined to buy put protection (& VIX has receded).
BTW, the last time the /ES futures exceeded >1 mil was Tuesday, 6/25/13.
The answer should be queue in by the 2nd or 3rd hour of trading.
I like to be aware of the stats on the first 5 minutes (& the pre market overnite highs & lows of the /TF).
Thursday, July 4, 2013:
7:31am 7/4/13 Thursday:
Need to focus on the 5minute opening range on the TNA & make alerts off of it.
Whatever direction the given instrument takes, you need to be able to fib it & take the available probabilities. Remember, these probabilities are more likely to fill given a low volume day. <1mil by 5am HST.
Seems like the 78.6% foforg of the 161.8% fib was the topping point & it could've well been the 61.8% if the algos did not get much additional buying at that topping point. Buyers drove NUGT to the 78.6%foforg.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013:
NUGT fib of the fib.ORG (of the opening range gap:fofORG) 6/27/13 was 50%.
yester's upside TNA foforg was 61.8%; a TZA buy could've ensued:
yester's downside TNA foforg was 423.6%; a buy could've ensued
Tuesday, July 2, 2013:
12:57 pm: 7/2/13 Tuesday: seems to me that price had led value wr2 $NUGT. If that is so, then the open 2morrow would have $NUGT with a LB (liquidation break?).
BTW: buyers were long in the hole (p formation on NUGT on Monday).
Monday, July 1, 2013:
5:03 am: 7/1/13 Monday: So here it is, LW's best trading days of the month.
Saturday, June 29, 2013:
8:59 am: 6/29/13 Saturday: Lucked out that I didn't get caught up in the algorithms in the after hours. This was a fake out move. Focus on the shaded area to the LEFT, that was the time that you tried to sell out AH, but couldn't (7pm the traded).
Friday, June 28, 2013:
Here was a question that was posed to me yesterday; and indeed it did play out to be true. We had a horrendous drop at 6:08 AM.:
| Did traders at the EOD Thursday 6/27/13 get LONG in the HOLE? (today at 1:00 AM) 11:05 am: 6/27/13 Thursday: regarding the following question, it'll be answered tomorrow. "Did traders at the EOD Thursday 6/27/13 get LONG in the HOLE?" https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywcl9jd0JtSklmZ2s/edit?usp=sharing |
Yes they did get long in the hole!
Thursday, June 27, 2013:
Wednesday, June 26, 2013:
11:08 am: 6/26/13 Wednesday: Very bad day of trading. I won't go into detail; however, it started from yesterday and days previous, when I was doing the "pairs" trade with TZA & TNA. Currently would be best for me to be on the side lines.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013:
2:46am: was very nimble yesterday. However, the nh continues to plummet. Here's an interesting comment by Tom Sosnoff:
I think I bought bonds three or four times yesterday to go long (no, I didn’t hold them very long) but even more important, Hell didn’t freeze over. In fact, I also bought the Yen and NASDAQ futures to open (no, I didn’t hold them very long either) and there were no horrific acts of God that I know of. So, we touch triple nickels on the S&Ps and it looks like we have a decent, and most likely short-lived, bottom in place. 1584 to 1598 in the /ES, 135’26 to 136’02 in the /ZB, and 2872 to 2882 in the /NQ are all reasonable and attainable bounces. But don’t fall in love with the upside, you can do better on the next sell-off.
Monday, June 24, 2013:
7:00 PM 6/24/13: Worden Report: Trouble in China Gives Investors One More Reason to Sell Stocks
China's banking crisis has moved to the forefront of potential problems affecting the global financial markets. The 5.3% plunge in the Shanghai stock market overnight made for a very rough start here at home as we kicked off another week of trading. Our market see-sawed up and down today, but was never able to go green. Sellers clobbered stocks in morning trading, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 250 points. The major stock indices managed to firm up around midday and in an attempt to fill this morning's downside gap, put together a respectable bounce. However, with slightly more than an hour left in today's session stocks again rolled over with the indices finishing at about the midpoint of today's range.
Thursday, June 20, 2013:
Thursday, June 20, 2013 18:33 (6:33 PM): Here is a view of the MI, focus on the macs. Notice on this “impending, pre-crash” day, look at how the mc15/24/3 all consistently showed a “degradation in value.” These are delineated in the longer blue arrows.
In comparison, the short arrows show the “foreboding numbers,” that at the Market Open showed “impending weakness,” however as the day moved on, the signals were less clear.
5:44 pm: 6/20/13 Thursday: Yesterday (Wednesday, June 19, 2013) was the clue of things to come. Look at the degradation of the numbers,
i.e. the 5/10/50ma;
i.e. all three dropped
from the 4:22am to the 5:04am time frame.
In comparison, it took nearly two hours (6:28pm) for
the nhTC to reflect the impending doom.
And almost SIX hours for the T2108.
(initial part of post below is directly from my log)
6/20/13 Thursday). 4/4 is -24 vs. -58yester.
25/25Q is still positive although much less (-32%) than yester. The 50/50 is down to 2 vs. 4yester.
TROUBLE!!! the 3413 is negative 330!!!!! May 1st 2013 was the last time we were negative. hmmm.... THURSDAY, April 18, was the last time we had a large 3413 negative (we had seven days in a row where the 3413 tanked; starting on Monday, April 15, 2013 and coming to a peak on Thursday 4/18/13).
Now if I were to invest on those day, I would end up doing VERY well. For 4/18/13; three hundred shares: Thursday, $1,047; Friday, 4/19/13: $660; Monday, 4/22/13: $555.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013:
3:35 pm: 6/19/13 Wednesday: Pradeep in today's video, mentioned that there was not much volume behind the down move today.
12:50 pm: 6/19/13 Wednesday: 12dreds of the 19reddies of 29columns. Big EDGE. The bskIday diffy was a -21%, i.e. a -32% turnaround from yester. However, I would've like the bsky & 5ma10sma to be even smaller than the 48%/42%; however, when considering that it was 54%/62% yester that is fine; the TNA is oversold.
Monday, June 17, 2013:
4:10 pm: 6/17/13 Monday: Interesting MM today; only five of the nineteen are reddies; and only three of the five are dark reds.
Friday, June 14, 2013:
3:58 am: 6/14/13 Friday:Notice how all the etfs are compressed within a two point range; this is usually a choppy day.
(And 4:16 am: 6/14/13 Friday: there you go, just as I point it out following a tick read of +816 at 3:59am; I get a -325 at 4:16am).
Thursday, June 13, 2013:
9:53 am: 6/13/13 Thursday: I think I've validated the (years of) research.... I am not at all surprised of the rally.I am in the process of trusting my system. The problems are more on my end, since my system is based on market breadth, market internals, VWAP, 5ma... etc etc...
The 20 reddies (red & dark red columns) of the 29 columns is such a powerful signal.
That along with my TPO Profile reads I feel is a highly predictive tool; and it's all based on probabilities.
The first REAL step that I took to fully entrust my trading occurred when I took the trade at TNA $46.79.
I was indeed at a crossroads; however, this time I choose my system vs. a choice based on my fears. My fear would've had me close the trade.
And to some extent; my fears also dictated my closing the trade at $47.71; thinking I got beyond break even.
However, I took the first STEP and it was based on trust in my own research. No one understands my research more than I do; and now I am coming full circle trusting it.
The next time this happens, I will wait until the END of the DAY. Then make one read before that. By then the algorithms won't be able to hide the meaning behind the breadth measures I've taken.
Very pleased!
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywUDVac0JiMkxac1k/edit?usp=sharing
6:23am 6/13/13 Thursday: Just completed a pdf that hopefully can display the graphics clearly.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywcm1vR3pXMlZlRjg/edit?usp=sharing
3:30:35 am: 6/13/13 Thursday: MI: Internals were negative to start at -.18/-1.35; however as the morning went on from -6.5 u-d it went to -12K (3:40 am: 6/13/13 Thursday).
The nhspx dropped from -193 to -385; bad!
The macs all lessened to the lower 100s. Not much of a correction; however, there was a gap from the LOD of yesterday. However, as noted. the NHL were your best indicators.
http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/3336/momentumw.jpg
Wednesday, June 12, 2013:
If 13 of the 29 columns are red/dark red; it's an edge.
Near the close, there were 20 of 29 columns red/dark red and of these 20; 14 were dark red.... high probability for an opening bounce.
So rather than closing the trade at the EOD; I took the trade.
Also, the "b" formation of my TPO Profile supported my observation that many traders per es futures were selling at bad prices.
TNA defended the 61.8%
I'm confident at the very least, I'll be able to close the trade at a price better than 46.95.
If I'm wrong, I've erred on the side of my plan.
10:48 am: 6/12/13 Wednesday: Lost $406 today; first losing day in three weeks. However, still a paper loss.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013 02:16 (2:16 AM): Contrary to my original MTM that stated that June is a bearish repositioning; the end of June is not always a bearish event. Look at June 2011 & June 2012.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013:
4:49 pm: 6/11/13 Tuesday: Just did a back trade based on the green high probability dates of Wed0605 and Thurs0606; remember that bsky 24%/-10% number; those are winner type numbers. So if I had the gumption to hold onto these buys until YESTERDAY; I would've made +$1600 for the 600 share position.
3:18pm 6/11/13 Tuesday: Not good! the nyhl dropped -12 to -121 from -109; so the overall loss was -176 vs. yester. Get out at the open?
BTW on a positive note, since the BPNYA is flattening the diffy BPNYA is now -1.78 vs. 2.24yester and 2.20eid. interesting.
2:04 pm: 6/11/13 Tuesday:
Another Blue Tuesday As Stocks Take a Hit
The Bank of Japan's decision to stand pat on interest rates rattled global markets today. Our stock market plunged on the open, but managed to recover by midday only to turn lower again in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, down as much as 152 points in the first thirty minutes of trading, actually made it back into the green by late morning trading. However, the sellers soon returned and four hours later when the closing bell sounded, the Dow was down more than 116 points or 0.76%.
07:01am 6/8/13 Monday: Peter Reznicek out did himself with an absolutely fabulous video.
http://www.shadowtrader.net/weekend_updates2013/130609we_final.html
which details the 6/6/13 Thursday ongoings; which is what I'd also tried to explain.
Monday, June 10, 2013:
1935pm 6/10/13: Here is another take on the 0606 occurrence, this perspective regards $TRIN: Look at the "P" formation on the Wednesday, PRIOR to the the Thursday, 0606 (traders "long in the hole"); followed by "traders short in the hole" ("b" formation).
Saturday, June 08, 2013 19:58 (7:58 PM):
As helpful these columns might have been; I found that there were seven that gave me the
“earliest non-false market signals,” i.e. "the magnificient seven." The magnificent seven were not faked out at the 7:26am slot.The Magnificent Seven: mc3 and the u$d spike told the most compelling story. The magnificent seven were not faked out at the 7:26am slot. In a less obvious manner, the 4/4diffy and mcDay did support the case of mc3. Finally, bsky, bsky interday diffy & dpoc diffy all gave supportive signals that were not false.
http://www.shadowtrader.net/weekend_updates2013/130609we_final.html
6/8/13 6:37 am Saturday: Interesting this ibd 50 best/worst list on friday. Especially interesting is the low ball list that I could indeed generate.
6/8/13 7:10 am Saturday: here is the bottom ten of the IBD50:
ARMH EVR
DDD BIIB
SSYS SNTS
VRX TMO
SBGI LYB
5:01am 6/7/13 Friday: trusting my market monitor for a mutual fund monday surge; then to pull out and wait for the next signal.
Friday, June 7, 2013:
6:29 am: 6/7/13 Friday: Which of these columns are the most important?
BTW, these observations are critical for the 7:30 to 9:00am applications.
In a day following:
day following the day of bsky 24%;
the current bsky gains just 1-2%; after being just 24%;
bsky interday diffy is a low positive (2%); after being double digit negative (-15%) previous day.
Be ready for the signals, e.g.: Below notice the:
a). DROP spike down on the internals from 1.93/2.26 to -1.22/-1.33
b). DROP spike in the interday mac diffy e.g. from +51 to -7.
In this lower graph and continuing the observations of my MM: also look be
In this lower graph and continuing the observations of my MM: also look be ready for other "confirming signals." e.g.:
c). spike in the u$d from .68% to 1.27%; that type of panic can be bot!
d). spike in the VIX from a high 17.58 to an even higher 18.08, this number relative to current levels is quite high.
e). drop in the new high values; relatively notice that e.g. losing 4 from 13 is about a -30% drop at this late time (7:26am).
f). stable nature of the diffy34/13 and see below for important note on volume.
The es at 5am on 6/6/13 Thursday was > 1million (1.043387 million).
3:22 am: 6/7/13 Friday: jobs report positive. love that 1100 am volume yesterday.
Thursday, June 6, 2013:
12:00 pm: 6/6/13 Thursday: twelve of the 29 columns; the key however, is that the bsky has broken back into red from dark red. Yesterday to today was one of those types of days where you buy and hold for a day or so.
So the bsky is now a 33% vs. 24%yester; the %>50ma is now 49% vs. 46%; the bsky interday diffy is a +9% vs. -15 for the past two days. the 5ma.10sma is 0.0 vs. a -4.4%. nyse/nas negative breadth worse than -7.29/-5.50. And the vix faded as did the trin. don't expect a comeback tomorrow. BOTD.
7:10 am: 6/6/13 Thursday: regarding AAPL, there might be a pullback on 6/13thursday. What is the vix doing on that day?
7:12 am: 6/6/13 Thursday: regarding the vix: the bottoming should be on 6/7friday.
5:10 am: 6/6/13 Thursday: You did not stay with my plan; sold at 46.96; where TOS gave info on; I was "playing with the market," run by a
Wednesday, June 5, 2013:
10:47 pm: 6/5/13 Wednesday: In the spirit of my 10:37pm note; I'm referring back to the day chart of the VIX, with the given cycle brackets.
10:37 pm: 6/5/13 Wednesday: Interesting day; one of my last journal entries. Here was one that I was totally spot on, with regards to the VIX. I called the 6/5/15 peak in the VIX.
8:18 am: 6/5/13 Wednesday: In retrospect, I went away from with my plan to close the trade at the VWAP (orange balls). I won't make this same error the next time. We are in a bearish tinge; so I cannot let my winners run. Tight leash protocol.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013:
ibd leading stocks that headed south today:
check out the the 61.8% retracement from the bottom as your target! for today.
6/4/13 0911am: using the top of theTNA gap and the first pivot below the lower bottom of the gap, yielded
the key 261.8% at 47.3, where TNA bottomed today.
Many traders are putting in their trades expecting the Tuesday effect. Will we rise as previous?
Monday, June 3, 2013:
9:19 am: 6/3/13 Monday: re: TNA using the 5 minute gap as my fib; TNA violated the S1 & 261.8%; yet stayed above S1 & the 423.6%.
9:22 am: 6/3/13 Monday: The ONH/ONL fibs had TNA approach the 261.8 ($47.38) on the 5minute chart. Still notable was the 1st gapping of the 5ema with the 8ema at 5:30am.
9:31 am: 6/3/13 Monday: update on TNA. Made it all the way back to 49.15; the market wants stock holders to liquidate so it can melt up. If you had taken the 47.40 entry for 300 shares = $531. :)
5:53 am: 6/3/13 Monday: Well my TNA eod trade was a good choice especially since I'd closed the trade near the open. There was a lot of choppiness thru-out the day. TNA wants to move in either direction.
BTW: stkb uses the flattening of the 5 ma as his guide to buying TNA. As Brian Shannon points out, the 5ma will flatten out by either price change or time. In this case it was the 6th candle that was in a relatively horizontal configuration, resulting in the flattening of the 5ma.
Sunday, June 2, 2013:
Felt initially my mechanical trade was a bad decision. After reviewing it, I found that I did thre of the five procedures correct. And in my mechanical trades, these first three are the most important with regards to probability of success:
1. Probability (spreadsheet) analysis with >11 columns red/dark red (when I look back at it, 19 columns were red/dark red)
2. Waited until the EOD (end of day) and when the price dropped below the 161.8% fib (of the initial 15 minute gap).
3. Waited for a healthy separation between VWAP & price action.
Here are the two that I'd jumped the gun on:
4. Jumped the gun on the 5 minute candle closing in the after hours... I bot into TNA when the candle (white arrow to the left) approached the DESCENDING (it's still descending stupid!!!!) (pink colored) 5ma
5. Did not wait for the 5ma to flatten.... and the better trade would've come at the WHITE ARROW to viewer's right: 5ma flattened & 5 minute candle crossed above the 5ma. (well ... it was ETH (extended trading hours.... still no excuse to deviate from my rules & protocol)).
After viewing brian's alphatrends video, I felt so much better about the trade.
And now after looking at the spike in /ZB and drop in the /DX, I am feeling that I might be given a reprieve.... we'll see.
09:17am 6/2/13 Sunday: Perhaps I have a reprieve, i.e. the /dx dropping. I need to get ooTNA at the open. Don't think I'll be posting much at AT either.
Saturday, June 1, 2013:
05:30am 6/2/13 Saturday: Awoke early left for starbux; eventually having to go to band practice; then Cody's graduation, then sign holding.... very long night.
Friday, May 31, 2013:
3:44 am: 5/31/13 Friday: mr.top step:
- S&P 500 POWER MECHANICS
- Written by Danny Riley
- Over years of following the S&P there are certain patterns we watch late in the day to gauge the closing direction. Both yesterday and Wednesday I thought the S&P would make new highs late in the day, only to have the MrTopStep Closing Imbalance Meter prove me wrong. ... For today: A failure on the close and a big sell imbalance has set the tone this morning. Let's face it, the S&P is struggling ...
- When the S&P 500 futures go up as they have all year, it presented a one-way trade. If you were fast and up to the task you could "sell the early rally and buy weakness," but on many occasions if you sold the e-mini S&P it kept going up. As we have seen all year, the algorithms have been locked and loaded on the upside, but in the last few weeks there have been some big two-way moves, a big jump in volume, and a large increase in program trading.
- Follow the money
- If you have wanted to know the direction of the S&P this year, all you had to do was follow the money. The No. 1 driver of the stock market has been the exceptionally high level of money flowing into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Right from the beginning of January it was one big buy imbalance after another, and it hasn't slowed all year until the last two weeks.As you can see by the closing imbalances, there has been a shift to sell-side imbalances. While the overall dollar value is small compared to the billions put to work this year, it does show that some profit-taking has been taking place. The shift to sell-side imbalances has played a major part in the late-day weakness recently. Out of the last 10 trading days there have been 2 imbalances to buy and 8 days in which we have seen sell imbalances.
the macs offer you an early signal in the day (before UR able to use the TC)
6:07 am: 5/23/13 Thursday: HERE is where you should've gone LONG in the early morning,
i.e. 13 d.reds!!!! also the macs were so negative: mc15: -582; mcday -74 & mc3 -184
Thursday, May 30, 2013:
1622pm 5/30/13 Thursday: Hubert Senters says stay away from the middle & to play the corners; which is what I am doing!
- TrimTabs Overnight Liquidity Update – May 30, 2013
- Corporate Insiders Sell Shares at Fastest Pace in Two Years. Insider Selling Reaches $7.2 Billion in May.
- As stock prices chug higher, the best-informed market participants are selling shares at the fastest pace in two years. Based on filings of Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, insiders have unloaded $7.2 billion so far this month. This month’s volume is set to be the highest since May 2011, when insider selling totaled $9.6 billion. Earnings season is finished, so we expect insider selling to explode in the next 1½ months as long as stock prices do not tank.
- Meanwhile, insider buying has remained low. Insiders have bought an unexceptional $550 million this month. While insider buying hit an 11-month high of $1.2 billion in April, a single $942 million purchase of Agco shares by a director accounted for roughly three-quarters of the volume.
- Do Bonds Know Something Stocks Don’t? High Yield Bond ETFs Drop 1.7% in Price in Past Month Despite Equity Rally.
- The disconnect between the action in the equity market and the action in the bond market in recent weeks was enormous. While stocks chugged higher, both investment grade corporate bonds and high-yield bonds stumbled. High Yield bond ETFs redeemed $779 million (2.3% of assets) in the past month as they fell 1.7% in price. By contrast, U.S. equity ETFs took in a whopping $13.0 billion (2.0% of assets) and rose 2.9% in price.
- The bond market is usually wiser than the stock market, so we think equity investors should pay attention to the weakness in bonds, particularly lower-rated bonds. Bond market action is consistent with our call last week that traders should consider trimming long positions.
- Demand Indicators More Favorable for Intermediate Term Than for Short Term. New Offerings Likely to Soar Next Week: Underwriters Swing into Action Quickly after Memorial Day
11:42 am: 5/30/13 Thursday: in retro... 5/29 WAS a good EOD entry. :). Furthermore, wr2 the bsky diffy between previous day tuesday 0528 (10%) & Wednesday (-12%) that was a total -22% swing... leading way to a HIGHER PROBABILITY ENTRY!
5/30/13 11:34am: Thursday: ends up with four reds; the mkt was fading ITC. (into the close)
11:09 am: 5/30/13 Thursday: tc: look at the nhtc recovery ending up 178, gaining +176!!! I guess that could qualify as a spike.
The 5/10/50ma faded going ITC (into the close): (pure numbers not diffys: 2998/2686/3495).
Interesting how nugt spiked and ugaz pooped. fas/financials doing ok, which developing countries edc are lagging. interesting looking at the 100s on the etfs; there seems to be a logjam of uncommitted direction esp with oil ery/erx sds/sso.... interesting.
tc2: the bsky ended at 46%; apparently ready to rip upwards. It might peak tomorrow.
BTW: the 4/4 vb5ma is flashing a false 2.08 signal... imo a false signal... watch out.
Wednesday, May 29, 2013:
00:02am 5/29/13 Wednesday: TZA is a tough customer; play the intra-day swing, i.e. the off 2nd bounce (often -3.4%) to the +1.14% (31.22); i.e. the 5ma & 34ma divergence.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013:
11:41pm 5/28/13 Tuesday: Here is something to behold, i.e. the diffy between the peaks of divergence from the pink 5ma to the green 34ma, on the 5min chart; respectively 2.1% and -1.9%
11:14pm 5/28/13 Tuesday: In general wr2 the bsky 10sma, there would just take a 64% to 75% to swing to the bearish side; currently the 51% seems headed towards the bullish side, especially coming from a low 39%.
I will back test trades on TNA for the given dates: 5/21 thru 5/24. (See below).
When considering the +.78% spike u$d; I would expect choppiness towards a bearish tinge (since only 4 reds (2 dreds).
11:14pm 5/28/13 Tuesday: Here are the backtested traded for 5/21 thru 5/24.
0522 would've given you the biggest gains; however, 0524 would've given you the least amount of time related exposure. 0521 would've resulted in big intra-day, losses.
2:47pm 5/28/13 Tuesday: The last week trade of 90 TNA shares was VERY successful; yielding me close to a $2 profit; i.e. +$182. Good trade.
1:58 pm: 5/28/13 Tuesday: Reds dropped to four. If anything, might be a good time to stay on the sidelines. BTW look at the spike of the usd to 0.78%.
Key is the bsky jumpting to 51%. It looks as though that the 5ma.10sma going to >-4.9% coupled with bsky 10sma<39% are a powerful combination.
5/28/13 8:26am: as bad as it looks; peter noted that we have an unsecure high. Still have 5 reds; however, the mi: went from green to yellow; so figuratively it's like 7 reds. Peter & brad state the possibility of traders getting short in the hole.
7:34am: 5/28/13 Tuesday: SLM spoke of the 3m chart and focused on volume spikes that belies the oncoming trends; also the lack of movement that results in a minimum of changes.
04:11am 5/28/13 Tuesday: Playing around with the "jade lizards." Short call spread + short put, 23% ITM prob.
Monday, May 27, 2013:
21:06pm: Looks like the call made on Friday, based on my MM was the correct call.
8:47am 5/27/13 Monday: Here is my back test on the 3,5,8ma cross. Based on this chart and my weekly cycle brackets which gives me a "go" to 8/13/12 (from 7/18/12). In the future I can also use my MM.
I will buy 300 shares of UGAZ
05:10am 5/27/13 Monday: I actually did post on Sunday, within the context, however of the Saturday 0525's post.
Here is a darvas scan that could be helpful in a week or so.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=IMGN,RPXC,ORN,BX,FANG,TSLA,FLT
During my 2nd page scan (12mA, 11months ago, etc): HCI looked like the most solid of investments.
Saturday, May 25, 2013:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywZEJDdWRWZ2xVVk0/edit?usp=sharing18:43pm 5/25/13 Saturday: I'm using eg's open of his LNKD trade on 2/27/13. I constructed a wkly cycle bracket with the end date being Friday, 2/27/13. However, the vertical line depicts the 3/4/13 week, suggesting a pull back. I will next do a day and hourly charts to delineate a more precise pull back. Generally, the day chart is the most telling, even when used on a 5 minute scale.
Similarly, the day chart suggests pull backs on the 3/4Mon, 3/13Wed & 3/25Mon.
Guru did the momentum play off the breakout from a flat base:
On Friday 2/27/13: LNKD took out the high of the base of 165.01
On that Friday, LNKD closed at $168.46
Below is an analysis (5/25/13) of the LNKD eg trade for working ppl on 2/27/13.
guru's entries & exits via ondemand:
I would've put a stop in at the $165.20 (break even); and subsequently moved the stop up.
Guru closed out his trade at $175; in retrospect; he should have been scaling out in thirds as it hit new highs.
1813pm 5/25/13 Saturday: It looks to me like the day chart is the most telling this time for the VIX; showing that June03 is the date of expected drop.
Microview: The expected rise in the market should be Wednesday, May 29, 2013; while there should be a concomitant drop sometime about the following Wednesday, June 5, 2013, when the VIX spikes.
Overview above on the VIX.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
In a related light: here is the 5/23/13 3:51am time snap shot: Was this a good entry point:
Consider this:
1) 25/25Q was positive
2) the nyse/nasdaq breadth was unconsciously negative at -6's; however, at the open it was -8s:
Here are shots at the 3:30:18am: I've cut up the shots for clarity sake:
-8.33/-10.77, nyse & nasdaq respectively
however, even more negative was the mc15 -507; yuck!
The time that I'd made the numbers was 3:51am on that 5/23/13 date: and by that time, the negativity had subsided to:
-6.7/-5.1 NYSE/NASDAQ respectively;
However, there was a divergence with the macs; which all increased precipitously.
However, since the 25/25Q was largely positive:You had to make a choice, i.e. choose going with the existing trend or choosing a reversal.
Also look at the bsky which dropped to 31% and the bsky iday diffy -12%; also look at the 5ma.10sma-6.6% rather large numbers that would be in hindsight difficult to maintain.
So the gain would've been +$1.32; with a 300 share trade it would be: +396; for 600 shares the gross profit would be +$792.
So the trade might have been an intra-day trade, i.e. buy at the 5:51am mark on 5/23/13. The sell at the close; the reason why you are doing such is the market is in a retreating, albeit retreating mode. Look at the difference between these two trades, i.e. day scalp on 5/23 5:51am to when the TNA spiked above the 34ma on the 5minute.
Check this out: I could've used the "cash market," i.e. SPX. And using the previous SPX day's high as your fib top, then using the low range of the gap, gives you the 50% fib, that TNA traversed. I could've put my "buy stop" just above the 50% fib.
I am sure this concept could be extended to the IWM/TNA. However, as you may notice the once taking the buy stop at above 1636. You would sell at resistance, i.e. stkb's 70ma. BTW: the 70ma is the baby blue line. That exit would've been 1683, i.e. 57 ticks!!!!. So let's do it with TNA
IMO, the VWAP is a better assessment of the when to buy the TNA. I would use VWAP; and the behavior of the 5 & 8ma. The time to buy would've been when TNA began elevating above the VWAP and the 5ma began turning up and the 8ma flattened out.
So it would've been just at the time between the two blue bars below. The skilled traders knew it. And also a third signal was the narrowing of the gap between the 5 & 8ma.
So the time frame wr2 Hawaii would've been at 4:55am. I've enclosed the graphic below:
Now let's step back to 4:28am from 4:55am. Notice how the TICKS BEGAN to break the downtrend line, with the big blue candle.
Remember, in the previous MI, -8/-10; then -7/-5. Then, the MI rose at this point to -3.6/-2.5; and giving more weight to the TICKS.
5/25/13 0741am: I am using Peter's concept of the 50ma wr2 the 50ma. Look at the
high of Sep14, 2012 to the
low of Nov16,2012,
i.e. 161.8%.
Consequently if that model were to hold, then the next pull back can be expected to about 1525. (see far left of the graphic below). And SPX 1525 is the 161.8% fib to the recent highs.
Friday, May 24, 2013:
3:47am: 5/24/13 Friday: ANN dropped; making my short call at mid-prices LESS of a bad decision; it's still a bad decision; however, it's a learning process.
Here's a post from peter's blog:
May 24, 2013
Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Friday, May 24th, 2013Good Morning
In the bigger picture I am looking at yesterday’s advance at the from the lows as short covering since value was established much lower and Wednesday’s settlement price cut off buying action at yesterday’s highs.
On the downside, the 1630 area is still very key. Note how yesterday’s overnight action went very close to there and then when RTH session was not able to take out overnight lows, a short covering rally ensued. Volume on the NYSE was about 500m shares less than the previous session.
Currently we are opening just out of balance to the downside underneath the value area, with overnight inventory net short. If this situation does not correct itself early, then expect clearance to the downside to overnight lows at 1632.75.
Monday is a holiday, as such volumes could be lighter today. Economic data for today has already been released and there are no notices during the pit session.
Thursday, May 23, 2013:
8:49 am: 5/23/13 Thursday: wow that bsky flash down to 31% on my 0357am read was the ENTRY trade; that would've gotten me in TNA at $46.76ish; TNA is currently at $48.89!
04:23am 5/23/13 Thursday: as per chart the one hour IWM cycles called the market drop to the tee.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013:
BTW: 18:00PM a worden post market report:
The Worden Report (Wednesday, May 22, 2013)
Key Reversal Day for Stocks?
Ben Bernanke giveth and Ben Bernanke taketh away. The stock market rallied sharply this morning as the Federal Reserve chairman gave testimony before the Senate. Initially, Mr. Bernanke delivered the message investors wanted to hear, essentially echoing the comments made by two Fed officials yesterday. Mr. Bernanke said, "A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further." In other words, the real risk lies in pulling back the reins too soon. Investors naturally took this to mean it would be business as usual on the QE front and they rallied stocks higher. An hour into the trading session the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 155 points.
4:10 pm: 5/22/13 Wednesday: as per velocity: the dx spiked.
The key focus is the bsky -21% interday diffy, with a -21%. Tomorrow will be telling on whether buying it at the close for
Interesting day, using my spreadsheet. What I am focusing on today is the @sum which has peaked at 139%; otherwise there is just ONE dark red and a minor one at that, i.e. the nhSPX. So today looks right for a peak.
5/22/13 8:43am: At the early part of trading, the @sum dropped from the 139% high on this day (at 6:12am).
HOWEVER, by the EOD this became a day to consider going LONG! Having SEVEN reds, including the bsky diffy of -12!!!!
11:02 am: 5/22/13 Wednesday: evaluation: ended the day with six reds.
the 25/25diffy is still a solid 557; the bsky is 43%.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013:
*************7:11 am: 5/21/13: Here is another interesting back trade on the Dec28 or Dec31; either would've been a successful entry. all good. Look at the gains off the 12/28 and 12/31 entries; i.e. $12.4K and $7.9K gains respectively.
Below is the ssh that supported my inclination to enter. The December28 with red/darkreds of 13/25 with a $12.5K gain with a 1/4/13 exit. Why exit 1/4? b/c bsky rose to 87% on the rise.
also, three @sums in a row >135%, i.e. 156%(1/2/13); 157% (1/3) & 162% (1/4)
************** 4:43 am: 5/21/13 Tuesday: TC: T2108 dropped a point; ugaz taking the etf lead at 108. dust/nugt is a tough trade; flip flopping. dust with the great momo in the down direction.
the nhTC is down about -291; the 5/10/50ma all dropped; the 5ma dropping the most -282 or 7.5%; while the 10ma lost 5%.
tc2: bsky dropped to 61%, the most its dropped since it dropped to about 58% several days back (actually Thursday0416, i.e. 58%, three days ago). so the 10sma/5ma.10sma: 61%/-0.8% vs. yester's 64%/-0.7%, i.e. today more negative.
on this initial 4/4 read, the diffy4/4 is 5 (-139 from yester's 144). Be interesting to see how the 4/4diffy recovers vs. yester.
Monday, May 20, 2013:
11:26pm 5/20/13 Monday: I am currently in agreement with Peter that we are indeed at high risk to initiate new long positions. So I am currently on the sidelines.
However, after doing the bluesky darvas scans, screening for liquidity, TI42 and cycle brackets, I've come across the following:
11:30 am: 5/20/13 Monday: eval: watch out; getting toppy; only TWO reds, i.e. the 5ma.10sma (-0.7; downside reversals for this # is -8.0% & less); also the nhspx had -11 less nhs.
My newest indicator is the @sum >50ma+>10sma %s. and it seems that 135% is a key reversal #. We'll see.
07:02am: made a few interesting changes on my ssh, i.e. the diffy between the >50ma and the bsky >10sma. whenever the diffy is >135%, then you are toppy and need to avoid the trade.
I am in the process of defining the re-entry targets.
This week is an interesting week; i.e. ppl are enticed to join this powerful bullish market.
Friday, May 17, 2013:
realization: 12:12 pm: 5/17/13 Friday: And the reason why it was a HIGH probability trade:a). diffy25/25 was positive and large at that at the "bearish Thursday," of 532.
b). $TRIN was peaking at 1.58;
c). most importantly the bsky diffy was a -7% and the bsky 10sma dropped to 58% from 65% (after a peak two days previously). Thursday 5/16/13 was the most bearish day of the week; with a -7% diffy on the bsky 10sma.
***************
11:49 am: 5/17/13 Friday: In retro, b/c the mkts been so bullish; buying at the close of this -7% day; especially since there were many sellers, "selling in the hole (see yester's mkt profile)," this was a great day to go long at the open.
The 300 shares of TNA, BOT 5/17/13 at the EOD, would've yielded you $459 @eod 5/18.
Thursday, May 16, 2013:
10:43 am: 5/16/13 Thursday: MI: both nyse/nas breadth went negative -2.41/-1.09; with a whopping -238.522 drop in the u/d. twm gained a whopping +9c... is that all?
both vix & trin spiked 13.07/1.58 respectively from 12.09/1.16. brad said shorts were shorting at bad prices. "trading getting short in the hole as per jim dalton" (yellow 3 & 4s; i.e. 13 & 14 sets of time frames)
btw: brad & peter uses the 30 minute time frame for the market profile:
12:36am 5/16/13 Thursday:
Thursday May 16 2013 Brad states that at11 o'clock he likes to see one million EST futures contracts training.
Brad notes that yesterday's advanced decline line started relatively high then migrated down to the zero line, then it bounced.
Peter know the said yesterday the volume is 3.4 million contracts traded.he prefer seeing 3.84 million contracts traded in a day.these types of numbers are critical mainly on the so-called out lying days.
Peter defines the accumulation days as days were price action migrates upwards with large and increased volume.
In yesterday's session Nasdaq started very positive its breath and continued to be positive.the Nasdaq it seemed to give support and strength to the other indices during its Times of weakness throughout the training day.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013:
Later post: 12:48 pm: 5/15/13 Wednesday: I am using the "red/dark.red indicators as a guide for short term trading; for now it seems that I get better entry signals using this multiplicity of indicators.
So here are some important insightful posts:
Here is the DARK RED-BLUE/Green diagonal spreadsheet pattern, that is VERY bullish; you can go largely long on this pattern. Go in increments. e.g. November 30th & December 31st, i.e. the bsky 10sma & bsky DIFFY!
10:03am 5/15/2013:
according brad & peter; there is an excess high today. and there are the single prints at the "7s" with the high at 1659.75.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013:
Learned lesson; don't follow peter's way of doing things, especially since your own spread sheet which seems to have increased accuracy over peter's 40-50 point rule > 20ma.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
7:25 am: 5/12/13 Sunday: according to my review on LTV: the apr16 11th trading day was a bad day for bonds per historical stats.
so what if I bot TLT at the end of this bad day for bonds? via tback:
121.98-apr16 eod.
I would've made $243 on an overnight trade with just a 300 share position.
Friday, May 3, 2013:
5:46am Key point of day: 10:15am est
Given: large correction previous day;
Markets in the overnight (ONite or ON) sessions are either 100% long or 100% short to previous day's settlement;
And, e.g. Given a bullish scenario, i.e. positive market breadth (the more, the better), positive AD ( the more, the better) and positive ticks (once again, the more, the better).
So, then it is a very positive, & high probability that the day market feels that price is CHEAP & the market wants MORE.
In Peter's way of thinking, the market is not interested in getting balanced.
This scenario applies for either, long or short scenarios & IFF the ON position is 100% long or short, NOT just NET long or NET SHORT.
Today looks to be a bounce back day for TNA at least in the premarket. Much diffy trying to type.
From my written journal yester;
- it's very important how the following peaked on Tuesday, April 30, 2013, the diffy (4up/4down) plus the MI (nyse/nasdaq):
- this momentum peak was confirmed by the peaks of the following on the next day Wednesday:
- bsky
- mcday
- mc3
- bpnya
Wednesday, May 1, 2013:
5/1/13 12:19 pm Wednesday: Excellent call on the cycle brackets; see how it works 2morrow. Market dropped precipitously.
8:28 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: maggie at t/s helping me. reinstalled my s/w.
min/max needs to stay at 32 to 1280
7:48 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: ETFS: realization!!!!, I've been following the WRONG nh list: it is the stkchts one NYHL is the one!!! it's the one that suffered a significant drop from yesterday!!!!
7:45 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: MI: interesting how "out in space" the nhspx is; the tellers are the mi:s
7:33 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: WOW bsky took a beat down to 58%/0.8% from (75% & 0.8%). mm5vbbee continues to fade to 2.31; diffy 4/4 is spiking to 218???? wtf? the diffy 25/25 dropped to 174... 25/25 could be more telling.
7:06 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: bulls taking a whompin'.
7:10 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: I find it odd that the NHLtc is still up there.
*************3:08 am: 5/1/13 Wednesday: getting gt-3 to work
http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?p=28240491
Tuesday, April 30, 2013:
11:22 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Contrary to my 4:08am comment, it was more than a balance day; it ended with a spike. The nhTC spike +115.
75% on the bsky are nothing compared to the January(13)02 to Jan04 of 86% to 87%; however, that was from the lows.
Otherwise, there was a Nov23.12 of 76% go a Nov29hi of 79%. Of more recency, there was the March08 of 74% starting from March04 from65%; Actually coming from the Feb26 lows of 31%
11:17 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: etfs: look at the bpya spike up 4; 77+ looks to be the pull back area.
11:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: interesting, need to be careful the macs are in rarefied area at 133 on the 24; however, the mc3 says STAY BULLISH!.
vix & trin holding firm; expecting something; usu it'll drop at EOD.
10:56 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: tc/tc2: check out the bsky upt to 75%/7.3%; yikes!!!!
Interesting how the 4% down spiked; dropping the mm5vbbee.
Wow look how much the 25% down spiked from 274 to 473; surprising IMO
Yesterday's Worden Report: S&P 500 Closes at New Record High
It's official. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at another new record high today of 1,593.38 surpassing its previous record of 1,593.37 set on April 11. The S&P 500 gained 11.14 or 0.70%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 106 points or 0.72% to close at 14,818.75. The NASDAQ Composite Index is back over 3,300, closing today at 3,307.02, up 27.76 or 0.85%. The Russell 2000 Index continues to lag, but gained 0.77% today.
4:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Today looks to being a balance day; much red in the MI.
Key Numbers 1588.5 POC & yesterday's settle. 1587.25; most time spent POC
Was lots of AT Highs
4:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Today looks to being a balance day; much red in the MI.
Monday, April 29, 2013:
8:01 am: 4/29/13 Monday: bullish with the bsky at 73%; however, the mi's are slowly eroding, while the VIX appears to be edging up; trin is at a .69; up from .67
Focus #s to look at near a liquidation break:
REMEMBER, it is VERY MONTH specific!
TRIN: needs to be <.71(needs to be with a 71%+ bsky)
a precipitous drop is highly desirable
BSKY: needs to be >63%
mi's: needs to be >+2.3
VIX: needs to be <12.7
a precipitous drop is highly desired!
diffy 4/4: Needs to be >72
10sma: needs to be >3.5%
diffy nhTC: needs to be >451
diffy nhSpx: needs to be >351
mcDay: needs to be >125 (depending on month: Feb was just +3)
diffy 25/25: needs to be >750
mc3: needs to be <7
T2108: needs to be >65
Focus #s to look at for a bullish entry:
MAJOR RULE: 2-4 days AFTER the TRIN spike to >1.91
MAJOR FOCUS!!!! >>>> diffy 4/4 is your TELL!!!!!
TRIN in the 2-4 days need to be dropping (trin after spike is a bad indicator)
BSKY%>10ma: Needs to be bottoming or slightly progressing upwards
mi:'s: Need to be less bearish each day; mi+ diffy 4/4: are confirming.
VIX: Needs to be lessening in smaller increments
diffy 4/4: diffy 4/4 is the first to move towards the positive;
Before it does however, it needs to have a HARD SPIKE to the negative (e.g. 1113 to 1114 (-192 to -320)
diffy 4/4's progression will be confirmed by mi's!!!!!
if the planets are lining up; then: buy buy buy!
5ma(10sma): Needs to lessen in negativity.
diffy nhTC:
diffy nhSpx:
mcDay:
diffy 25/25: Needs to lessen in negativity.
mc3:
T2108: for the major correction <22; for most LB's:
but it's the GAP DOWNS >10 from 40s, 50 levels you need to be aware of.
On buying TZA: It is MONTH specific... back test the given month.
TZA is often a one day phenomena; unlike TNA; always harder to play the bearish side.
TZA is a function of either or; moreso the bsky at an extreme; however if bsky + VIX are extremes (counter to one another; the upside is very powerful). (bsky>71%; & VIX <12.5 is the best scenario).
DEPENDING ON THE MONTH!!!
**************8:11 am: 4/29/13 Monday: end of liquidation break correction pull
Monday, April 29, 2013:
**************8:11 am: 4/29/13 Monday: start of liquidation break correction pull back rally pthots pullback
8:01 am: 4/29/13 Monday: bullish with the bsky at 73%; however, the mi's are slowly eroding, while the VIX appears to be edging up; trin is at a .69; up from .67
Focus #s to look at near a liquidation break: REMEMBER, it is VERY MONTH specific!
TRIN: needs to be <.71(needs to be with a 71%+ bsky)
a precipitous drop is highly desirable
BSKY: needs to be >63%
mi's: needs to be >+2.3
VIX: needs to be <12.7
a precipitous drop is highly desired!
diffy 4/4: Needs to be >72
10sma: needs to be >3.5%
diffy nhTC: needs to be >451
diffy nhSpx: needs to be >351
mcDay: needs to be >125 (depending on month: Feb was just +3)
diffy 25/25: needs to be >750
mc3: needs to be <7
T2108: needs to be >65
Focus #s to look at for a bullish entry: MAJOR RULE: 2-4 days AFTER the TRIN spike to >1.91
MAJOR FOCUS!!!! >>>> diffy 4/4 is your TELL!!!!!
TRIN in the 2-4 days need to be dropping (trin after spike is a bad indicator)
BSKY%>10ma: Needs to be bottoming or slightly progressing upwards
mi:'s: Need to be less bearish each day; mi+ diffy 4/4: are confirming.
VIX: Needs to be lessening in smaller increments
diffy 4/4: diffy 4/4 is the first to move towards the positive;
Before it does however, it needs to have a HARD SPIKE to the negative (e.g. 1113 to 1114 (-192 to -320)
diffy 4/4's progression will be confirmed by mi's!!!!!
if the planets are lining up; then: buy buy buy!
5ma(10sma): Needs to lessen in negativity.
diffy nhTC:
diffy nhSpx:
mcDay:
diffy 25/25: Needs to lessen in negativity.
mc3:
T2108: for the major correction <22; for most LB's:
but it's the GAP DOWNS >10 from 40s, 50 levels you need to be aware of.
On buying TZA: It is MONTH specific... back test the given month.
TZA is often a one day phenomena; unlike TNA; always harder to play the bearish side.
TZA is a function of either or; moreso the bsky at an extreme; however if bsky + VIX are extremes (counter to one another; the upside is very powerful). (bsky>71%; & VIX <12.5 is the best scenario).
DEPENDING ON THE MONTH!!!
**************8:11 am: 4/29/13 Monday: end of liquidation break correction pull ba ck rally pthots
Sunday, April 28, 2013:
9:02 am: 4/28/13 Sunday: Please note I rated 20130417wednesday a +; but not 20130415monday (could've done just a day swing); b/c it was the first day of a big drop in a toppy market.So this would entail my 2-3 day wait following a vix spike from 20130415 (or a scalp one day trade).
And surely enough, 20130417 dropped again. However, considering this is April and it was not the EOM, there was time it seems. So Wednesday was the 2.93 on the TRIN. Using my other
7:16 am: 4/28/13 Sunday: developing your own system.
1) The TRIN was the first indicator; however, other than the first sign, you must abandon its use thereafter. Notice how it spiked from Nov06 0.55 to Nov072.29; then gave a FALSE Bullish signal by dropping on Nov08 to 1.63. That warning spike (that is easily seen on your usual charts (vs. derived figures); is your first warning sign to check the other bsky, 5ma & others.
2) On that "false TRIN" (& vix which also dropped) bullish signal on Nov08 (1.63); notice that the bsky, 10sma,
3) From Nov07, notice how the bsky bearishly dropped for two days; while the TRIN bullishly lessened for two days;
FROM two days of lies comes further action....
Day three, bluesky got a relief rally jumping from 27 to 29 (Nov12), while trin worsened.... another divergence.... Beware of these divergences during these MIXED signal periods.
Also worsening was the 10sma (Vix stood still); your confirming tells were also:
Diffy nhTC, nhSpx, 25/25 and 4/4 were all negative.
And while, bsky stabilized at 14. Improving from Nov14 to Nov15 were:
10sma (-4.1% to -2.8%)
Please note that THE EARLY SIGNALS were the diffy 4/4 and 10sma)
All else worsened to Nov15 (10sma & diffy 4/4 correctly predicted the bottom)
The vix column was moved to the left, b/c it becomes "noise"
(you'll need it only as a gauge for buying puts).
Saturday, April 27, 2013:
1:20 pm: 4/27/13 Saturday: Doing a backtest on TNA; looking at my ssh data.
Focusing on several parameters. Will be much more patient with my signals. Reorganized my spreadsheet for my needs. Colored the important parts red & white.
12:29 am: 4/27/13 Saturday: The earliest signal for the December 2012 low was the:
1. diffy 4/4. The diffy 4/4 went positive November 16, from large negative positions.
2. The 5ma of the 10sma peaked to the downside on 11/13/12 at -6.9. Rule of TWO! Don't buy on the bottoming day.
12:40am 4/27/13 Saturday: Looking at a year ago, this is what happened: 1) 10 sma dropped 72% to 65% (on 4/30)
2) 5ma of the 10sma went from the high of 4.7% (4/27/12) to a 4/30 lower % of 2.9%.
3) diffy 4/4 went NEGATIVE
4) diffy 25/25 dropped!
Friday, April, 26, 2013:
2:14 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: the March 5th thru the 15th yielded a 6% gain in TNA.
Please note that the 3/5 bluesky (dark blueish with red font %) jumped to 51% (from 46%) reaching a peak of 74% and slowly descended down towards 65% and 60%; before dropping notably after March 15 (see big red candle 3/18 telechart to the right).
Please note how the dark bluesky's correlated to the last of the red "vbbee mm5s" (turning from green to yellow).
Please note, I've delineated t0he BPNYA: The change in color of the VB mm5 + the peaking of the BPNYA could be good reasons for exiting the TNA trade.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywLWxsNEhtS0MyMEU/edit?usp=sharing
11:22 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: just keeping this orderly within the developing topic.
11:22 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: just keeping this orderly within the developing topic. Pay special attention to the 8/23/13 stocks >10sma of total, which dropped from 51% to 41%. And the 5ma of the 10sma INCREASED in negativity from -1.4% to -4.5%. That was a good ENTRY day.
Another clue was the 4%up/4%down went net negative
Thursday, April 25, 2013:
3:08 am: 4/25/13 Thursday: put in an oco on ANN jic; it spikes precipitously. Or perhaps buy a lower
BAD trade in FFIV; then on Friday, BIDU; did not follow good trade parameters.
3:53 am: 4/25/13 Thursday: from stkb2009 (actually a very kind, knowledgeable & giving person):
- So looking at stkb2009's protocol, he does the 5ma & 8ma crossovers
- Incidentally, I found it interesting that the 8ma in the 5ma chart, i.e. how it touched the 34ma (my fav) then bounced up at the 7:05am mark on 24 April.
- btw: here's additional stkb2009 info:
- http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EarningsCalendar5Weeks.htm
Wednesday, April 24, 2013:
11:13 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: remember unless conditions are tremendously bad; in the 5m and day charts; the TNA (yellowish trendline) likes to stick around the 34ma. And you'd bot 5:40am, which is in violation of your new rules, i.e. after 8:30am. If you'd waited for the large cycle to bottom, that would've been an excellent entry point. Another would've been the 161.8% (1/2 way in the gap). I'll cover it in the next graphic.
Use the first 15 minute peak, and the bottom of the opening range for that 1st 15 minutes as your guide to where the Fibonacci will go; and only if
- the NH-NL.spx is >337.
- the Mc3 is > 0 yesterday (which it was & will be tomorrow);
- the bluesky %>10sma as an "ally." (today, it was
- Finally, the riverside 25%+ is still > 25%>Qtr.
As for the Opening Range break down for TNA;
The LOD in that opening range phase in the first fifteen minutes was $40.73. Which was about nine cents below the 161.8% fib of the HO first fifteen minutes to the bottom on the fifteen minute opening range. So a breakout of the range could've been your guide. This is happening because short term monies respects the fibonaccis.
6:10 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: indeed! say for instance a bad TNA trade; instead of a trade for it, I should have:
- 1) set a timer if it's <6am for about 15 minutes;
- 2) then after the 15 minutes see if you can draw a trendline
- 3) remember TOS is collusion on certain trades AGAINST you; this is build into the platform!
- 4) set alerts for low points & consult your IWM & TNA cycle brackets.
- 5. learn from it!
No comments:
Post a Comment