journal20130914 to 10/13/13

My Journal: Archive it Every month: 9/14/13

Monday, October 14, 2013

10/14/13 2:55 AM: 10/14/2013
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a lower open after Congressional leaders failed over the weekend to put together a deal to raise the country’s debt ceiling. The downturn in the futures comes after the market had one of its best weeks of the year in anticipation of the country's leaders finally reaching a deal. There is little else for investors to key in on as the lack of a deal could have a disastrous effect on the economy. The earnings season will pick up in earnest this week, offering investors a bit of distraction from the turmoil in Washington. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 4.5% on Friday as stocks rallied again into the end of the week.  Investors poured back into equities on Thursday and Friday despite only rumors on a budget deal.  ‘Risk-On’ trading already looks overdone after stocks fell sharply early in the week before the comeback late in the week.  We should see some consolidation or buying of protection today if stocks remain in negative territory.  Be prepared for a snap-back rally if any deal is announced or progress gets made in Washington.

Treasuries are slightly higher amid mixed overseas markets. The 10-year Treasury yield remains just under 2.70%. Asian and European shares are mixed, and U.S. stocks lower as the deadlock in Washington continued over the weekend. It appears that markets are caught between hope that the debt ceiling will be lifted time and fear that it won't. An unexpected fall in Chinese exports has also added some negative sentiment, despite China rising modestly. Earnings season ramps up tomorrow and should provide a break from the rhetoric out of DC. 

Stock Stories:
Dunkin Brands (DNKN) –Yummy– The Dunkin Donuts company gets upgrade based on expansion overseas.  Shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Facebook (FB) – Scoop – Social networking site buys tech start-up Onavo.  The company specializes in monetizing mobile products for more content use.  Facebook shares are off 1% in the premarket.
Major Economic Reports:
Columbus Day – Equities Open
7:00 pm CT – Ben Bernanke Speaks

Saturday, October 12, 2013

10/12/13 5:39 AM:

8:22 AM Oct 12th 2013 pthots

.... when I have an issue with something, others often experience likewise... (at least the ones that are aware of the situation)....pthots 1969...
I'm catching up of reading post events... I don't like to read other writers thots during the trading day.....
I personally like to steer myself clear of the "flippant (talking head) comments (oh yes add David Larew to the talking heads list)"

The Worden Report (Thursday, October 10, 2013)

Monster Rally on Wall Street Takes Averages Significantly Higher

The stock market rocketed higher having one of its best days of the year. The major indices all closed on their session highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 323 points or 2.18% to close at 15,126.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index vaulted back above its 50-day price moving average, closing at 1,691.99. The S&P Index jumped 36.16 points or 2.18%. The NASDAQ Composite Index and the Russell 2000 Index also climbed back above their 50-day price moving average, gaining 2.26% and 2.50%, respectively.

I hate to sound cynical, but is it just me or did today's rally feel somewhat contrived? Yes, I know the market had reached deeply oversold levels following a steep, three-week decline. Yes, the boys in Washington D.C. are taking a step in the right direction in an effort to get their #%@& together. And yes, I understand that investors are suddenly more hopeful about the federal budget and the debt ceiling than they were just twenty-four hours ago. Today's positive news stream from Capitol Hill was certainly worthy of a rally in stocks, but a rally of this magnitude? It was quite the celebration, but where was the volume you would normally associate with a move like this? We saw it in the major market ETFs, but not in the individual stocks themselves. I want to feel better about all of today's plus signs, but in the end I thought it was a strange day for the market. And one that has me skeptical of its staying power.

-Peter Worden

10/12/13 5:36 AM: @blue: Look at the stats on Wednesday (rectangled in yellow), 9 dark reds of 21 total reddies (dark red cells + red cells) of the 30 columns!!!

And the put call ratio spiked (to 0.36) the largest spike in the two years I begun following this measure.

I was aware of this thoughout the trading day, and realized that I entered a day early.  I had a feeling that a "buyer's shut off was going to happen soon (& it did, the following day.)"

My best recourse was buying the back month OOTM Calls in Stocks on my long held "wish list."

Friday, October 11, 2013

10/11/13 11:44 PM: @blue: Here's my long note for a few of you to pounder on, knowing there won't be a large post to push me down to oblivion.... hey, anything can happen. (lol)…
however as we know, an awareness (of the algorithms, in the market) sometimes leads to swift reaction.
BTW these thots have been chronicled into my private journal.
Let’s start off with the divergences that began from the week before (September 30… a key transitional, portfolio rebalancing month. Bear in mind the concept TRANSITIONAL).
As I was noting, whenever the divergences with the existing transitory phases, SEEMS to be either topping with peaking Momentum numbers or
… near its end at the basement like bottoms…
the algorithms become FURTHER & intensely queue to the SELL side, i.e. the PUT side; hence the sudden spike (or PLUNGE) in the VIX.
So remember this the VIX is generally queued to the PUT side of our options ledger (@Sid, @cammotrader please extend this concept if either of you would).
This week, the Tuesday and Wednesday MARKET response was almost a “Van Tharp, black swan” event.
Then the CRITICAL TRANSITIONS unique to this time of year!: (Options) Rollover Thursday of October, the month following the end of rebalancing September, during the time of market in political economic duress.
Then add to this the LARGE GROUP factor. I have chronicled my thoughts of this previously (Last November: PPT) & of late, Market in Collusion. Well Tuesday, 10/8/13 IBD changed it’s status to Market in Correction.
(bear in mind, my “sneaking feeling” was insight vs. reading it somewhere. @my1 quickly (& thankfully updated me on the current status that happened to change that evening, after market!))
That added to the PILING on selling on the next day WHACKING (the bulls…ouch!!!) Wednesday, October 9, 2013 (my daughter’s birthday)
The “breadth flip” or Market in Collusion? I think a little of both! Turnaround Thursday, October 10, 2013.The ultimate bear crushing rally.
Then IBD AGAIN flips on that THURSDAY evening AFTER the market (IWM/RUT up 2.4%) UPGRADING the market status to Market Uprend under Pressure.
(…two IBD changes in market status in two days!!! WTF?)
Hey check my posts! These insights occurred real time. Where else have you’ve gotten these unique (ok: out of the ordinary).
ONLY in stockbee.biz!!!YIKES, I see the “hook” coming
Let’s get back to market observations sans cynicism. (lol).
There were a ton of put activity & many it seems, were selling premium, i.e. selling near the money (NTM) & OOTM puts. However, there was an avalanche of PUT activity for ALL instruments.This strategy went berserk!!!
Many put sellers, hoping to capture small premiums quickly noticed their profits ballooned into losses and progressively LARGER losses.
Greed sometimes punishes.
From the outside looking in, premium selling reached the “nth degree” and early premium sellers (myself included) were punished (& punished more if you were shaken out).

·       On Wednesday, October 9, 2013), I realized that this was nearing FRENZY PANIC levels. The skew in formerly DEEP OOTM was now either NTM or ATM.

·       Furthermore, when I tried to sell a few more puts, I was given a warning that my BUYING POWER was maxed out. This has not happened in over three years.

·       I quickly recalled a journal entry and a protocol that I had to enlist, i.e. buy the discounted, back month, OOTM discounted long CALLS. My latest tweak was also implemented (all of these instruments needed to have WKLYS options).

·       So I bought numerous: FB, AMZN, TNA & YHOO back month, OOTM long calls, near its absolute lows!!! (The FB 70 Strike Jan15 at 3.75).

BTW here’s another observation (My passion is keen observation & insights, via specific, candid journaling & not so much the back testing; we have many talented members that are passionate back tester types; I am not one of them. I’m pencil & paper with my formulas… Albert Einstein was able to a little with his observations & formulae… & I am in no way comparing myself to this highly intelligent mentor!).
Back to my observation of this past week (from my journal entries).

·       The two way trade of late is NOT intra-day; it’s was the next day swing.

·       So a tweak on @mhp’s EOD stop, was my rules taking into account the “panic selling rule,” (i.e. don’t sell on the day of adjudged extreme panic (this rule can both help & hurt you; however, I’m doing this with the help of my adapted MM studies, so functionally it’s a “basement window trade.”).

·       My other rule: AVOID all news inputs during these times of fear. During market panic, these news organizations put the “two & twos” together and ONLY reinforce your fears.

·       Similarly, avoid the talking heads/perma-bears (zerohedge, Larry Williams, Tom DeMark, etc.), who’ve been wrong for over 10 months; trust your system!

·       The short selling and powerful upward momentum came from the panic buyers, much of which I suspect included the “whipsawed IBD investors, having to whether the two day switches from Market Uptrend Under pressure I will file this entry under my: "Market in Collusion" so interested parties can search can capture the insights of this week.

‘nuff said! oh yes one other issue.
CAVEAT:
Please do NOT:

·       Post or freely share these insights with others outside of our already, large Stockbee community!

·       Ditto for my comments of short puts.

·       I have already STOPPED entering my specific strike levels because of my observing the unusual skews for the option strikes of the instruments that I’m in, behaving VERY abnormally, beyond my pegs.

·       (So I will continue NOT to share specific strike levels, perhaps only the range, unless I begin noticing EXTREME changes in option behaviors). The more people who trade in similar fashion, the more efficient and RESPONSIVE the ever powerful, algorithms become.

·       So sharing these ideas with your non-stock bee friends is NOT COOL.

·       If I continue to notice these skewing of options (even if it’s at a suspicion level on my behalf, I will no longer post these insights on our STOCKBEE community pages and will instead simply write to individuals or post to myself on my private blog (membership ONE..myself).

have an awesome weekend everyone! & keep smiling!!!

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Monster Rally on Wall Street Takes Averages Significantly Higher

The stock market rocketed higher having one of its best days of the year. The major indices all closed on their session highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 323 points or 2.18% to close at 15,126.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index vaulted back above its 50-day price moving average, closing at 1,691.99. The S&P Index jumped 36.16 points or 2.18%. The NASDAQ Composite Index and the Russell 2000 Index also climbed back above their 50-day price moving average, gaining 2.26% and 2.50%, respectively.

I hate to sound cynical, but is it just me or did today's rally feel somewhat contrived? Yes, I know the market had reached deeply oversold levels following a steep, three-week decline. Yes, the boys in Washington D.C. are taking a step in the right direction in an effort to get their #%@& together. And yes, I understand that investors are suddenly more hopeful about the federal budget and the debt ceiling than they were just twenty-four hours ago. Today's positive news stream from Capitol Hill was certainly worthy of a rally in stocks, but a rally of this magnitude? It was quite the celebration, but where was the volume you would normally associate with a move like this? We saw it in the major market ETFs, but not in the individual stocks themselves. I want to feel better about all of today's plus signs, but in the end I thought it was a strange day for the market. And one that has me skeptical of its staying power.

-Peter Worden

10/10/13 3:49 PM:  Even though I am delta positive, I am maxed out with the short calls that I can use without being naked.
I follow the same protocol for all my portfolios to avoid self sabotaging errors (i.e. no naked short calls).
So currently, my OOTM short calls are waiting to be covered hopefully in a methodical, consistent manner tomorrow.
Some valuable lessons were learned this week, and I'm eager to implement these protocols... well sort of eager within my level of fatigue,
…………however, enthused nonetheless!
This was a free education week, without the tuition… and to my chagrin, I simply lucked out. At some point in time the success perhaps will take on a more mechanical undertaking.
However, some tweaks are sorely, needed.
For one, I intend not to be so decisive in the early going, whether early in the week; or early in the trading day.
My system works best, when I sense or perceive momentum in either direction; so later, with insight & observation is always to my edge.
I do have the infrastructure, yet controlling the inner beast, i.e. my meddling, impulsivity, remains the issue."
…And apparently, the remedy to this recurring issue, appears best done by disengaging from the computer.
(OCD issues)
(“Mirrored” discussion & self assessment entered into my private, virtual journal).

10/10/13 7:51 AM: Commence closing short calls for TNA!!! One at a time!!! 

10/10/13 7:26 AM: If any of my instruments drops to VWAP, I’m closing my calls & thanking the gods!  ;-)

 telling option: .TNA131019C62.5

Thursday, October 10, 2013:

10/10/13 5:59 AM: Besides here: I forwarded a copy to Brian:

"Here is my remedy to my tendency to be in a bit early. 

ONE Reconaissance “tight OOTM WKLYS credit call spread or “tight OOTM WKLYS bull put spread positions on Mondays & Tuesdays.” It depends on which the direction the market goes.

Regarding my entries & closes this past week (& it’s been a recurring pattern of late, which concerns me):

Thursday & Friday’s I rock….

 Mondays & Tuesday I sock (ala suck!)

 Wednesdays: I’m sometimes in WTF did I do that? lol"

 

10/10/13 6:19 AM: The Worden Report (Wednesday, October 09, 2013)

Stocks Close Mixed in Volatile Session

Stocks spent time on both sides of the unchanged line today with the major indices finishing mixed. The stock indices closed pretty much in the middle of their daily range. Unlike the bullish reaction following the Fed announcement on September 18 the market paid little attention to the Federal Reserve's release of minutes from last month's FOMC meeting.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed mostly flat at 1,656.40. Following yesterday's plunge the S&P is now about 22 points below its 50-day price moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 26 points today to close at 14,802.98. Yesterday, the Dow broke down through the short-term trend line presented in my report of October 4.

The NASDAQ Composite Index plummeted 2% yesterday and fell another one-half of one percent today. Trading volume has swelled over the past two sessions. This is the first close below its 50-day price moving average since June. The Russell 2000 Index has also moved down through its 50-day price moving average after having dropped 3.23% in the past three sessions.

The Dollar moved higher today, while the bond market slumped. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) having found an area of possible short-term support closed up 0.46%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dipped eight-tenths of one percent as it attempts to hold above its 50-day price moving average. The selling pressure appears to be once again weighing on TLT.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is failing in its attempt to reclaim the 50-day price moving average. USO fell slightly more than 2% today on increased volume. Today's Volume Buzz figure for USO was +80.3%. USO is testing key support here and the deteriorating technical indicators suggest a downside breakout.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) closed down 1% and may be completing the formation of the right shoulder of a short-term head and shoulders top. GLD closed today at 126.11. The neckline of the potential H&S top is slightly below the 124 level.

-Peter Worden

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

10/9/13 9:14 AM: line chart on the $NHLSPX which is less worse.

10/9/13 3:15 AM: U.S. equity futures are pointing to a bounce at the open following reports that President Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to be the next Fed chief. Market pundits believe that Yellen is likely to continue the dovish monetary policies of the Fed. In addition, investors seem ready to take advantage of a market that has fallen in 11 of the past 13 sessions, although they remain cautious as the budget impasse in Washington continues. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 4.7% yesterday on another steep drop in stocks. The “Fear Index’ did not rise as much as Monday despite equities falling more yesterday. This suggests there was a huge short-squeeze on Monday where investors needed to cover. The VIX had remained low over the last few months and caught some off guard as they were not prepared for downside risk. The VIX broke the $20 level for the first time since the end of June and should remain elevated in the Government issues remain. Higher volatility increases option premium and provides more opportunities for our Risk-Defined trading.

Tuesday, October 08, 2013

10/8/13 9:03 PM: Also what happened yesterday AFTER the close of the market.... (*before I deliver it... lemme go back to an interesting conversation between fellow "bees"....*).

I first made yesterday, a comment about a: *“sneaking feeling about IBD’s change in Market Status,”* [from IBD Market Under pressure status to a possible “Market In Correction”]( http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=search...&query=I+have+a+sneaking+feeling+that+)

@my1 gave me an needed update, per my aforementioned comment, i.e. [@my1: gave me the IBD status as of the previous evening, following my initial, aforementioned comment.]( http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=search...&query=It+was+uptrend+under+pressure+last+night.+They)

Here was my follow up & comments to @my & to everyone in general on [“large followings (*e.g. Cramerica, IBD*)….”](http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=search...&query=Much+like+the+following+of) and how [algorithms eschew these mass actions]( http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=search...&query=Algorithms+love+these+types)

And I’d just read an email from Amy Smith of IBD:

The IBD Market status was changed to:

**Market in Correction**

:-\

Monday, October 07, 2013

10/7/13 7:02 AM: (07:01) bebinka: I'll probably be entering initially with deep OOTM short puts on TNA. Already accumulated deep OOTM TZA calls, will short calls making my (usual) bear calls spreads (successful traders keep doing what works, until it doesn't). Aloha my friend!

 

10/7/13 4:42 AM: Worden report:

Back to Back Losing Weeks for the Dow and S&P

It was another losing week for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the government shutdown moved into its fourth day. The Dow gained 77 points today to reclaim the 15,000 level, but declined 1.21% for the week. The Industrial Average finished out the week at 15,073.41 and has now pulled back 3.85% from its record close on September 16. The price pattern over the past four months resembles a possible broadening top formation or perhaps better described as a potential triple top. The 50-day price moving average has even begun to rollover ever so slightly. The blue-chip average, however, still has a positive bias with its series of moderately higher highs and higher lows. A short-term uptrend line is in place which connects the April, June and August price lows. The Dow is approaching a test of this uptrend line and if it should be broken, the current bias will likely shift from positive to negative. This being said, keep in mind the Dow Jones Industrial Average is noticeably weaker than the other major stock indices and it is representative of only thirty stocks.

Sunday, October 06, 2013

@stockjo.... YOU ARE the one I should thank (see my jpg below)...

….for all what you've done... spending your valuable TIME, posting the 4%up / 4%down stats... stockbees really missed it during your absence.

Regarding EditpadPro & how I use it (please refer to the graphic below, it's tied into my TOS Alerts!!!... I'm also using MS Word if I need to use my Macros (where I just type a few letters and generate an entire recurring thot!)

”...successful traders keep doing the same 'ol, same 'ol... until it no longer works..." 

That being said:

”You don't need to be creative AWAY from a success protocol/plan!"

On the configuration of EPP 4.5.5

I LOVE EPPro it’s sooo good & Jay’s is a class act!!!  I’ve enabled EPP to replace NotePad for all my txt uses (for computer newbees… place a txt file on your desktop:

    Right click the file

    Properties

    Look a couple of lines down to “Opens with…:”

    Change: …..

    Go to Program Files (Win XP) or Program Files (x86) (Windows 7) and click

    Got to JG Soft… Click EditPadPro folder

    Click onto EditPadPro.exe…

Now all your “txt” files will be handled by Editpadpro.

On this simple, yet wonderful software (EPP 4.5.5):

(questions are eternal… pthots).

Seriously!    What good is a comment that has not date & time to it?

Hitting F5 gives you the automatic date stamp (see graphic).

    9:03 am: 10/6/13 Sunday:

Per "Preferences"

Saves you seconds of time ... use of your prefrontal cortex which should be used for decision making

(I'm serious.. I've done a "little bit of research" on brain function... my passion years back was recovering from MY OWN series of mini-strokes). 

passion >>>> casual interest.

Getting hit with a ton of alerts & don’t know what to do????

My resolution to getting hit with a ton of alerts & trying to figure out why I made the alert in the first place = Mindful notes tied to my  Alerts.

Rapid fire, "machine gun" decisions, can rapidly become the rapid, deadly emotional decisions that engage the ever so quick algorithms.

If YOU ARE doing this… expect pain (or eventually, when you LEAST expect it…)

… (remember Pradeep’s birds & elephants.....

The GREAT DISABLER to the algorithms.. slower pace.. keeping TIME as your ally.

If you use a Well analyzed Plan +  TIME as your partner

Well analyzed/organize Plan of Action >>>>> Algorithmic Noise!!!.

Write MINDFUL notes TIED to your alerts... so you don't have to PUT yourself on the spot making a BAD EMOTIONAL DECISION

'nuff said!

........ sorry guys! my only post for today... big dinner party we're prepping 4... last surviving uncle on my maternal side...90+ y.o. ....... probably his last visit to Hawaii.... & like me undergoing senile dementia.

By the way!: the 2nd to the last jpg on the 2nd row is the alert I receive from TOS onto my Samsung Galaxy III Text Message

I would entitle the graphic below as: "my schema of a mindful note tied to your ALERT!"

oink oink!        lol!

 

Friday, October 04, 2013

12:27 pm: 10/4/13 Friday: Back to Back Losing Weeks for the Dow and S&P

            It was another losing week for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the government shutdown moved into its fourth day. The Dow gained 77 points today to reclaim the 15,000 level, but declined 1.21% for the week. The Industrial Average finished out the week at 15,073.41 and has now pulled back 3.85% from its record close on September 16. The price pattern over the past four months resembles a possible broadening top formation or perhaps better described as a potential triple top. The 50-day price moving average has even begun to rollover ever so slightly. The blue-chip average, however, still has a positive bias with its series of moderately higher highs and higher lows. A short-term uptrend line is in place which connects the April, June and August price lows. The Dow is approaching a test of this uptrend line and if it should be broken, the current bias will likely shift from positive to negative. This being said, keep in mind the Dow Jones Industrial Average is noticeably weaker than the other major stock indices and it is representative of only thirty stocks.

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Option strategy for TSLA!

10/3/13 2:29 PM: Consider risking $850 for this one call, which is manageable. Only do this if TSLA dropped to $156.98 and this Mar14 220 Call has more than 120 days left on its ticker. Currently the b/a is 13.65/14.10. If This spikes 3-4 dollars THEN you consider selling a call just below this strike. However. as the time line gets less, you bring the short strike 4-5 strikes lower or even lower (you can roll this long one down later).

Monday, September 30, 2013

10/1/13 4:51 AM:  The Slide in Stock Prices Continues

The Senate said no today to a bill that would keep the government open until November 15. The deadline is fast-approaching and if Congress can't come to an agreement by midnight tonight, the U.S. government will face a partial shutdown. This probably isn't as bad as it sounds, but it did serve to rattle market participants who once again took stock prices sharply lower. I believe the stock market, at this point anyway, is fairly confident this budget standoff will only go on for so long. Otherwise, we would have seen considerably more selling today.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

9/29/13 6:14 PM: Period of compression/consolidation/constriction followed by a simultaneous expansion of both upper & lower BB = formula for increased volatility.

IN MY PERSPECTIVE, high probability set up.

AVGO

9/29/13 10:26 AM:

Market Wizard Marty Schwartz

By Andrew Selby on November 14, 2012 in Market Wizards

“By mid-1978, I had been a security analyst for eight years and it had become intolerable. I knew I had to do something different. I always knew I wanted to work for myself, have no clients, and answer to no one. That, to me, was the ultimate goal.” – Marty Schwartz

This is where he got me. I was having an enjoyable read through this interview and then Schwartz hit me with this as if, to borrow a line from Meatloaf, he took the words right out of my mouth. This is the vision that drives me. I don’t strive to be a flashy billionaire with houses, cars, and planes. I want to work from home, be challenged mentally, and earn a decent living.
This thought made me recall various traders who were interviewed by Michael Covel in his various works. Most of them worked from home or very dull offices and most of them were not really known on a national level.
While I will eventually get into some of the rules that Schwartz discusses, I have to say that his attitude toward trading was more compelling to me than any of his rules. I was fascinated with how he compared and contrasted his trading with his Marine training.
He applies his Marine training to his trading later by describing how the Marines teach you to never freeze when under attack. He explains how there is no point in just taking punishment and that retreating can also be a form of offense. He says “The most important thing is to keep enough powder to make your comeback.” I have a friend who calls me every time the market goes into a correction and reminds me to “Keep your powder dry.”

Schwartz’s Trading Rules

“I try not to go against the moving averages; it is self-destructive.”

This is something that Gary Kaltbaum preaches regularly. Fortunately for me, most of the stocks I follow through reading Investor’s Business Daily generally break out above the 50 Day Moving Average.

“Before putting on a position always ask, ‘Do I really want to have this position?’”

I think this falls in line with my taking time to think about it overnight before I take a position. The idea is that there is no need to rush into anything, and every time it feels like there is a need to rush, I lose money.

“After a successful period, take a day off as a reward.”

This applies more to day traders than those of us with a more long-term outlook, however there is still something to be said for celebrating your victories. One of the best ways I have found to stay motivated and encouraged is to celebrate every small victory as if I had just won the Super Bowl.

“My biggest losses have always followed my largest profits.”

This is a caution against getting a big head. This happened to me after my PCLN trade earlier this year. I was so excited about the result of the trade that I thought everything I bought was going to do the same thing. I felt like I couldn’t lose, which made me more likely to lose.

“Bottom fishing is one of the most expensive forms of gambling.”

This is a key concept of the CANSLIM strategy. Because of that, I have been trained for years to not even consider lower quality stocks or “value plays.” O’Neil actually advises against any stock priced below $10.

“Before taking a position, always know the amount you are willing to lose.”

This cautions an investor to implement some form of risk management. We have seen almost every single trader profiled in Market Wizards insist that risk control is an absolute necessity.

9/29/13 8:09 AM: look at the XLF on a >30m chart.... I use the 65m. Pretty interesting

9/29/13 6:56 AM: $24.68 Target: of double bottom: for TZA.

 

9/29/13 6:24 AM: Making Alerts, in lieu or entry orders!!! The “smarter way,” that doesn’t awaken the “dreaded algorithms.”  Attempting to buy, via a calculated bid on:  Monday: Jan14 110 Call Near the money: currently at: 2.90/95 my Alert/bid: 1.83.

9/29/13 3:47 AM: loose thoughts!!!:   1 hour chart on the TOS OnDemand. Using Mark Deaton’s “Mastering Bollinger Bands.” Five main signals. Look at the compression.  Remember YOU ARE looking at both bands. Deaton refers it as “constriction,” i.e. when the bands come together. Here’s the breakdown:

hourly chart: the one hor candle was These were your telling indicators!!! on 11/7/12. There was the long doji. See day chart observation!

    day chart: arguable bearish engulfing pattern. on the AMZN day.

 

9/29/13 3:16 AM: AMZN could be forming a bull flag or a bullish wedge.

9/29/13 2:49 AM: re: IBB possible 2^nd “v” of the double bottom:  done on WKLYS chart! per Cycle Brackets: 

9/29/13 2:57 AM: For IBB: Making Alerts, in lieu or entry orders!!! The “smarter way,” that doesn’t awaken the “dreaded algorithms.”  Looks to me: this could be the ^ of the double bottom:

   

9/29/13 1:56 AM: The LNKD Feb14 225 Call for $26. Risking $2600. Expecting LNKD to hit $227 possibly $187. Once entered, if given a bounce consider sell calls if going upside or average down.  Making alerts.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

9/29/13 1:59 AM:  spent much of the day doing the scrbd.com. there were many interesting books to download. And I did. During the evening I listened to Mark Douglas: Trading in the Zone.

Friday, September 27, 2013

9/27/13 11:19 AM: Mark Deaton gives the clearest discussion on how to use Bollinger Bands in trading with regards to: the constriction and the expansion of the bands and the underlying approach.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PONc9GkzFrA

 "\\Dellt3400\c\files\st Y files video\archived gems\bollingerBands20071001 clearest video mark deaton renegade trad.avi"

 btw: I also recorded it since its soooooooo valuable!

9/27/13 12:35 PM: while you are at it, also check out: the woohoo!:

"C:\files\adobe\bus\finance\stocks\education\subscriptions\stockbee\scribd.com\mindfulness\sharpening your brain\mindfulness20130908 0927am brain magick woohoo philip farber.pdf"

and staying mentally sharp, i.e. “mental fitness for trading.”

"C:\files\adobe\bus\finance\stocks\education\subscriptions\stockbee\scribd.com\mindfulness\sharpening your brain\mindfulness20130927 2357pm mental fitness for trading norman hallett.pdf"

9/27/13 12:27 PM: very interesting & compelling read (LSS 3-Day Cycle method: Also look at George Angell’s “Sniper Trading.” That is what you are becoming, i.e. ninja trader. This guy covers the rally, decline, buying high and buying under. 

Thursday, September 26, 2013:

9/26/13 7:04 AM: once I establish my long calls... I leave it alone... don't like to trade in & out on the long OOTM (recipe for LOSING: via slippage,
Here's a few other insights from my trading journal:
... avoid overtrading for peanuts; this gives the omni-present algos feedback
.... a way to circumvent building the algos "data base on you," .... use smaller sized limit orders...
Here are a few other tips:
... spread your short calls over a few strikes (very important)
.....& avoid getting into the responsive, back & forth trading in the heated moments
& similarly my latest tweak.... 10 minute moratorium.... using my trusty kitchen timers at 25%-50% positioning
.... this aforementioned protocol allows for a very important condition: i.e. "trade in stealth."

9/26/13 12:44 AM: Divergences galore, with a high probability  as a result of this “market indecisiveness,” to the two way trades. VBEE SIGNAL, i.e. using the MM5ma & MM10ma (of the 4%up/4%down):   was arguably is in the first or second day of a sell signal. 

However, at the close of yesterday, the VBBEE signal just went above 2, and perhaps *”nulling”* the selling signal (needs 2 days >2)?

Yesterday, two of my three new highs-lows stats lost #s yesterday, breaking its improving two day streak. However, my “*hot “telling” number, i.e. $NHLSPX,*” remains uptrending (the one of the three that gained #s yesterday).

Add to the mix, the recurring "*fallen leaf in the stirring winds scenario*!”  i.e. High probability of wider price swings, relating to lower market volume (*i.e. whenever /ES futures volume at 11:00 am EST <1 million shares)!

Further add to the mix **end of QUARTER rebalancing (*September is a “QUARTER month”*),** which has been ongoing it seems, the *few weeks or so*.

Here’s what the market is telling me:

1) Don’t be so quick…. why do you have to be the first to jump on the railroad tracks, just before the train is about to roll right over you. 

Patience seems to be the less painful path.  Pradeep gives us method; let’s use it. 

2) Allow the message of the market to unfold.

3) In this climate, *the ADHD type of investing is your adversary.*  Knife catchers are getting pummeled by the algorithms.

*Don’t be first, be smart.*

Yep!

"*Anything can happen!*"   

9/26/13 2:18 AM: Stocks on a Losing Streak: (Worden)

The modest, but steady pullback in stocks continued today as uncertainty over a possible government shut-down has unsettled investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 61 points today or four-tenths of one percent to close at 15,273.26. The Dow Industrial Average has now pulled back five straight sessions since closing at a new record high one week ago. This retreat back to its 50-day price moving average has now accounted for 403 Dow points or 2.57%.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

9/25/13 6:38 AM: Market wants to chop.  I’m doing a little better job with monitoring my positions and NOT giving the algorithms information about my trading. My trading seems to represent many traders and I need NOT to give the algorithms this pertinent information; otherwise, it’ll work as a choppy.

Here is the Worden report for yester. :

Stocks Unable to Hold onto Midday Gains

The major stock indices were somewhat mixed, but the market lost ground again today in a see-saw session. A weak start put stock prices in the hole early, but a quick recovery had equities back in the green for much of the day. However, with about two hours left in today's trading, the bears again took control and led the major stock indices lower.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

9/24/13 3:19 AM:

U.S. equity futures are trading mixed as the market looks to be off to another quiet start. Yesterday saw the downside continue in the overall market although a jump in Apple (AAPL) tried to sway the tech sector higher on the back of its 5% gain. Investors remain cautious as lawmakers continue to haggle over the budget, Obama-care, and the debt limit. There is a good amount of data due today which also may affect markets today. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 9% higher on the downturn in equities on Monday.  Some of the move was residual upside pressure from last Friday when stocks fell but the ‘Fear Gauge’ remained flat.  Hopefully we will continue to see volatility rise to open up more opportunities for option trades. 

Monday, September 23, 2013

9/23/13 3:24 AM: September 23, 2013

I look at hundreds of chart patterns every day.... 85% of 'em is TNA. TZA perhaps 12-15%. NUGT and others fractionally.
As you all know I'm blessed/cursed with an OCD mindset filled with curiosity.
questions are eternal
and as a few of you know & tolerate, I am the creator of many axioms that I readily draw my mental pictures from:
So my next question is in my graphic; much like a great book, the story will unfold.....

 

Posted by preznicek at 9:00 AM on Monday, September 23rd, 2013

Good Morning
Value areas and POC figures for /ESZ3 and /NQZ3 are posted free every morning HERE.
As discussed in the video yesterday, there’s a lot of divergence between /ES and /NQ currently which to me makes the outlook more neutral than the bearish, even after Thursday’s pullback. This is still evident this morning with /ES underwater by $3 and /NQ’s up $11. If you missed the video, it’s here below:
Let’s gander at the profile for today…

–Overnight inventory is quite balanced with about equal action on either side of the settlement. If anything, it’s slightly long.
–Halfback from Friday is right at the single prints that separate the two distributions. This would be a target/resistance point on a bullish move upwards during today’s session.
–On the downside, we have a poor low from Friday which needs repair. Furthermore note where we are trading currently, right around the 1700 level which is a psychological support and also right at the top of the range before the FOMC spike up. Combining the poor low with the support here, balanced inventory, and extreme relative strength in the Nasdaq, leads me to believe the odds of an early short covering rally are pretty good. Knowing that the prior high, bottom of the spike support is here, aggressive traders may look to enter longs early to day with good trade location (meaning your stop is not far away).
Overall, Friday’s action was decently bearish with an increase in overall volume and elongation of the profile to the downside. If the Nasdaq weren’t so strong, I’d be calling for more weakness. Just knowing and understanding how markets work when such divergence exists can put you far ahead of the competition in knowing when to trade directionally and when not to. It’s all about context and feel….
Have a wonderful trading day….

Assessment: ONI is p formation.

9/23/13 2:14 AM: Although currently in the Overnight Session (1699.25) we will probably bound off the band of support below, (1697.44 (50ma VWAP) to 1696 (S1.)).

IN MY PERSPECTIVE, we head down to S2. and possibly S3. 1678.73

Sunday, September 22, 2013

9/22/13 8:10 AM: Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) tweeted at 5:31am - 22 Sep 13:
Two biggest tops in history took place +/- 10 days of the fall equinox 9/21 $SPY $SPX #SPY #SPX  stks.co/pTag (https://twitter.com/KimbleCharting/status/381802854475788288)

 

9/22/13 7:57 AM: signed up for the van tharp newsletter.

• Self-knowledge is the first step to improvement.

• You are an Innovative Trader.You are adept at generating conceptual possibilities and then analyzing them strategically. Your goal is to understand the world, constantly absorbing new information that comes your way. You then process all of this through your intuition to size up what is going on around you quickly.
  
  One of Your Trading Strengths - You like the challenge of sorting out market conditions and seeing where you fit and can be competitive in the markets.
  
  One of Your Trading Challenges - You may find yourself making emotional decisions when under stress (with dramatic consequences).

9/22/13 6:45 AM: Here is my retroview using TOS OnDemand.  TNA Call Option. I’ve noticed on the high probability  set-up:  in the 161.8% fib retracement (upward); using  the WKLYS Pivot Points on the prior Friday.

9/22/13 7:42 AM: support bshan: going with $399/year; gold membership.

Innovative-Trader-Report.pdf

Saturday, September 21, 2013

9/21/13 5:42 AM:

Did my entire set of analysis.

I would tend to agree with @bluesky: The market will have some type of healthy pull back in the coming week.

*anything can happen*

Please pay attention to my adapted MM (*please don’t ask for my parameters: always best to do your own.*)

Also:

Look at the series of powerful bull flags for the TNA daily charts.

Juxtaposed to the day candlestick chart is the market profile.

Wednesday there was a double distribution… the past two days, we were in balance.

This is my last post for the weekend; very busy personally! 

 9/21/13 4:29 AM: Here is a fascinating picture, i.e. the monthly chart with WKLYS pivots. So the /ES futures range could be 1690 to 1723. 

Thursday, September 19, 2013

9/19/13 3:55 AM: Worden report: Fed Shocks the Street Sending Stocks Soaring

To the surprise of virtually everyone, the Federal Reserve announced today it will keep the $85 billion a month bond-buying program intact. Referring to the widely expected move toward tapering, one money manager called it "hands-down the single most clearly telegraphed move in the history of monetary policy." Needless to say he was shocked the Fed chose to stand pat. I guess by the same token, no one should be surprised the market rallied so briskly on the news. In retrospect, it's clear the market had already priced-in an announcement to taper. Ben Bernanke explained the Fed is still not comfortable enough with the state of the economy to initiate any tapering at this time. "The Federal Open Market Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases."





9/19/13 3:14 AM: I’m back. Wordpress wasn’t as robust as blogger.com

Saturday, September 14, 2013: Be Mindful & Even! :)

           

9/14/13 6:47 PM: Buy at 39c? currently at: 88c.

9/14/13 6:12 PM: $24.85 is double back, i.e. 50% retracement of a previous significant candle.   However, the weekly Sep13 TZA options are pegged at $25.

9/14/13 5:39 PM: $133 to $220 are

9/14/13 5:59 PM: //NKD’s  $16,933 is 12.75% up from current 14,475.   

Record Strong Gains for the Week

The major stock indices were somewhat mixed in their daily performance, but finished the day on a strong note to post healthy gains for the week. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed its best week since January. The blue-chip average climbed slightly more than 3% this past week to close at 15,376.06. The Dow is now less than 300 points away from a new record high.

The best weekly performers among the thirty component stocks of the Dow Industrials were Walt Disney Co. (DIS), up 8.63%, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), up 6.04% and United Technologies (UTX), Int'l Business Machines (IBM) and Boeing Co. (BA), all up about 5%.