20130205 tuesday: journal20130428

This is my renewed journal:

Tuesday, April 30, 2013:

5/18/13 14:04pm est: Interesting stkb2009 comment, which I find as interesting, if not telling:

......most rebounces starts around 70ma.

http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=search...&query=SLCA+above+50ma......most+rebounces+starts+around+70ma

11:22 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Contrary to my 4:08am comment, it was more than a balance day; it ended with a spike. The nhTC spike +115.

75% on the bsky are nothing compared to the January(13)02 to Jan04 of 86% to 87%; however, that was from the lows.
Otherwise, there was a Nov23.12 of 76% go a Nov29hi of 79%. Of more recency, there was the March08 of 74% starting from March04 from65%; Actually coming from the Feb26 lows of 31%

11:17 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: etfs: look at the bpya spike up 4; 77+ looks to be the pull back area.

11:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: interesting, need to be careful the macs are in rarefied area at 133 on the 24; however, the mc3 says STAY BULLISH!.
vix & trin holding firm; expecting something; usu it'll drop at EOD.

10:56 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: tc/tc2: check out the bsky upt to 75%/7.3%; yikes!!!!
Interesting how the 4% down spiked; dropping the mm5vbbee.
Wow look how much the 25% down spiked from 274 to 473; surprising IMO

Yesterday's Worden Report: S&P 500 Closes at New Record High
It's official. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at another new record high today of 1,593.38 surpassing its previous record of 1,593.37 set on April 11. The S&P 500 gained 11.14 or 0.70%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 106 points or 0.72% to close at 14,818.75. The NASDAQ Composite Index is back over 3,300, closing today at 3,307.02, up 27.76 or 0.85%. The Russell 2000 Index continues to lag, but gained 0.77% today.

4:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Today looks to being a balance day; much red in the MI.
Key Numbers 1588.5 POC & yesterday's settle. 1587.25; most time spent POC
Was lots of AT Highs
4:08 am: 4/30/13 Tuesday: Today looks to being a balance day; much red in the MI.

Monday, April 29, 2013:

**************8:11 am: 4/29/13 Monday: start of liquidation break correction pull back rally pthots pullback
8:01 am: 4/29/13 Monday: bullish with the bsky at 73%; however, the mi's are slowly eroding, while the VIX appears to be edging up; trin is at a .69; up from .67
Focus #s to look at near a liquidation break:
   REMEMBER, it is VERY MONTH specific!
   TRIN:    needs to be <.71(needs to be with a 71%+ bsky)
       a precipitous drop is highly desirable

   BSKY:    needs to be >63%
   mi's:    needs to be >+2.3
   VIX:    needs to be <12.7
       a precipitous drop is highly desired!

   diffy 4/4: Needs to be >72
   10sma:    needs to be >3.5%
   diffy nhTC: needs to be >451
   diffy nhSpx: needs to be >351
   mcDay: needs to be >125 (depending on month: Feb was just +3)
   diffy 25/25: needs to be >750
   mc3: needs to be <7
   T2108: needs to be >65

Focus #s to look at for a bullish entry:
   MAJOR RULE: 2-4 days AFTER the TRIN spike to >1.91
       MAJOR FOCUS!!!! >>>> diffy 4/4 is your TELL!!!!!
   TRIN in the 2-4 days need to be dropping (trin after spike is a bad indicator)
   BSKY%>10ma: Needs to be bottoming or slightly progressing upwards
   mi:'s: Need to be less bearish each day; mi+ diffy 4/4: are confirming.
   VIX:    Needs to be lessening in smaller increments
   diffy 4/4: diffy 4/4 is the first to move towards the positive;
       Before it does however, it needs to have a HARD SPIKE to the negative (e.g. 1113 to 1114 (-192 to -320)
       diffy 4/4's progression will be confirmed by mi's!!!!!
       if the planets are lining up; then: buy buy buy!
   5ma(10sma): Needs to lessen in negativity.
   diffy nhTC:
   diffy nhSpx:
   mcDay:
   diffy 25/25: Needs to lessen in negativity.
   mc3:
   T2108: for the major correction <22; for most LB's:
       but it's the GAP DOWNS >10 from 40s, 50 levels you need to be aware of.

On buying TZA: It is MONTH specific... back test the given month.
   TZA is often a one day phenomena; unlike TNA; always harder to play the bearish side.
   TZA is a function of either or; moreso the bsky at an extreme; however if bsky + VIX are extremes (counter to one another; the upside is very powerful). (bsky>71%; & VIX <12.5 is the best scenario).
   DEPENDING ON THE MONTH!!!

**************8:11 am: 4/29/13 Monday: end of liquidation break correction pull

Sunday, April 28, 2013:

7:16 am: 4/28/13 Sunday: developing your own system.
    1) The TRIN was the first indicator; however, other than the first sign, you must abandon its use thereafter. Notice how it spiked from Nov06 0.55 to Nov072.29; then gave a FALSE Bullish signal by dropping on Nov08 to 1.63. That warning spike (that is easily seen on your usual charts (vs. derived figures); is your first warning sign to check the other bsky, 5ma & others.
    2) On that "false TRIN" (& vix which also dropped) bullish signal on Nov08 (1.63); notice that the bsky, 10sma,
    3) From Nov07, notice how the bsky bearishly dropped for two days; while the TRIN bullishly lessened for two days;
    FROM two days of lies comes further action....
    Day three, bluesky got a relief rally jumping from 27 to 29 (Nov12), while trin worsened.... another divergence.... Beware of these divergences during these MIXED signal periods.
       Also worsening was the 10sma (Vix stood still); your confirming tells were also:
       Diffy nhTC, nhSpx, 25/25 and 4/4 were all negative.

       And while, bsky stabilized at 14. Improving from Nov14 to Nov15 were:
           10sma (-4.1% to -2.8%)
       Please note that THE EARLY SIGNALS were the diffy 4/4 and 10sma)
           All else worsened to Nov15 (10sma & diffy 4/4 correctly predicted the bottom)
           The vix column was moved to the left, b/c it becomes "noise"
               (you'll need it only as a gauge for buying puts).

Saturday, April 27, 2013:
1:20 pm: 4/27/13 Saturday: Doing a backtest on TNA; looking at my ssh data.
Focusing on several parameters. Will be much more patient with my signals. Reorganized my spreadsheet for my needs. Colored the important parts red & white.

12:29 am: 4/27/13 Saturday: The earliest signal for the December 2012 low was the:
    1. diffy 4/4. The diffy 4/4 went positive November 16, from large negative positions.
    2. The 5ma of the 10sma peaked to the downside on 11/13/12 at -6.9. Rule of TWO! Don't buy on the bottoming day.

12:40am 4/27/13 Saturday: Looking at a year ago, this is what happened:
    1) 10 sma dropped 72% to 65% (on 4/30)
    2) 5ma of the 10sma went from the high of 4.7% (4/27/12) to a 4/30 lower % of 2.9%.
    3) diffy 4/4 went NEGATIVE
    4) diffy 25/25 dropped!

Friday, April, 26, 2013:

2:14 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: the March 5th thru the 15th yielded a 6% gain in TNA.
Please note that the 3/5 bluesky (dark blueish with red font %) jumped to 51% (from 46%) reaching a peak of 74% and slowly descended down towards 65% and 60%; before dropping notably after March 15 (see big red candle 3/18 telechart to the right).
Please note how the dark bluesky's correlated to the last of the red "vbbee mm5s" (turning from green to yellow).

Please note, I've delineated t0he BPNYA: The change in color of the VB mm5 + the peaking of the BPNYA could be good reasons for exiting the TNA trade.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywLWxsNEhtS0MyMEU/edit?usp=sharing

11:22 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: just keeping this orderly within the developing topic.

11:22 pm: 4/26/13 Friday: just keeping this orderly within the developing topic. Pay special attention to the 8/23/13 stocks >10sma of total, which dropped from 51% to 41%. And the 5ma of the 10sma INCREASED in negativity from -1.4% to -4.5%. That was a good ENTRY day.
Another clue was the 4%up/4%down went net negative

Thursday, April 25, 2013:

3:08 am: 4/25/13 Thursday: put in an oco on ANN jic; it spikes precipitously. Or perhaps buy a lower
BAD trade in FFIV; then on Friday, BIDU; did not follow good trade parameters.

3:53 am: 4/25/13 Thursday: from stkb2009 (actually a very kind, knowledgeable & giving person):

So looking at stkb2009's protocol, he does the 5ma & 8ma crossovers
Incidentally, I found it interesting that the 8ma in the 5ma chart, i.e. how it touched the 34ma (my fav) then bounced up at the 7:05am mark on 24 April.
btw: here's additional stkb2009 info:
http://hosting.briefing.com/cschwab/Calendars/EarningsCalendar5Weeks.htm

Wednesday, April 24, 2013:
11:13 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: remember unless conditions are tremendously bad; in the 5m and day charts; the TNA (yellowish trendline) likes to stick around the 34ma. And you'd bot 5:40am, which is in violation of your new rules, i.e. after 8:30am. If you'd waited for the large cycle to bottom, that would've been an excellent entry point. Another would've been the 161.8% (1/2 way in the gap). I'll cover it in the next graphic.

However, during these topping times this maneuver might be a little more risk intensive; however, you do expect the IWM to peak on Friday, so an entry tomorrow might just work.
Use the first 15 minute peak, and the bottom of the opening range for that 1st 15 minutes as your guide to where the Fibonacci will go; and only if

the NH-NL.spx is >337.
the Mc3 is > 0 yesterday (which it was & will be tomorrow);
the bluesky %>10sma as an "ally." (today, it was
Finally, the riverside 25%+ is still > 25%>Qtr.

As for the Opening Range break down for TNA;
The LOD in that opening range phase in the first fifteen minutes was $40.73. Which was about nine cents below the 161.8% fib of the HO first fifteen minutes to the bottom on the fifteen minute opening range. So a breakout of the range could've been your guide. This is happening because short term monies respects the fibonaccis.

6:10 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: indeed! say for instance a bad TNA trade; instead of a trade for it, I should have:

1) set a timer if it's <6am for about 15 minutes;
2) then after the 15 minutes see if you can draw a trendline
3) remember TOS is collusion on certain trades AGAINST you; this is build into the platform!
4) set alerts for low points & consult your IWM & TNA cycle brackets.
5. learn from it!

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOyweEtDaUY1LW12MHc/edit?usp=sharing

5:28 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: retro view on a bad trade; I bot TNA at 4:51; then I had made an type of alert; losing $105. Look at where I'd bot; I bot at when two of the three cycles were signaling me at the 5 minute bar. So I sold TNA at 41.09; FREAKIN' TOS is in collusion with the market now the TNA spiked to 41.37; at 5:32. I can make it back. But I might want to wait until 7:10am. However, maybe better to stayout.
Heavy, heavy revenge type of frustration.
Brad said there is no trend.

3:19 am: 4/24/13 Wednesday: Brad commented in the pre-market that yesterday, the SPX closed 5 points above the level of the left shoulder yesterday.
Brad made a very interesting comment that when the Right shoulder goes higher than the level of the left shoulder, in a potential h&s formation; the probability of occurrence decreases; and moreso if the SPX migrates higher or spends more time on the upside.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013:

3:08 pm: 4/23/13 Tuesday: interesting h&s formation forming w/ the dj

3:06 pm: 4/23/13 Tuesday: per Adam H.'s comment, oil headed to $80; Peter thinks $77.

Currently IWM at 5:50 am: 4/23/13 Tuesday at 92.11 up 1.24; the targe I am thinking for Thursday is near 89.64, i.e. a 2.68% drop.

3:35 am: 4/23/13 Tuesday: locals are buying; interesting pull back on nflx. the puts are not dropping for ANN; most probably due to the VIX being 13.71. need to watch the VIX

Monday, April 22, 2013:
Remember, by 5:30am tomorrow, Tuesday, we will progress towards a down cycle.
Remember also that ANN hits a 6:45 am crossroads tomorrow at 6:45am.

Eventful Tuesday and Wednesday for ANN; for one there should be an "uptick at the opening bell tomorrow." using the 39m chart. See the green, the fourth smaller cycle is uptrending vs. three of the other descending cycles.
    Consider buying your ANN June 32 Put at the open.
    so granted by 7:40am, there should be downside action.
    crossroads coming up at 7:40am

10:46 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Regarding ANN, you just might be able to low ball the offer below $3.40; to as low as $2.90?
     10:50 am: 4/22/13 Monday: So I put in an order for the ANN June 32 Put for $2.50. See if there are any takers. The current mark is 4.40; I think only the seller was at $2.90.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywWkkyMGNYSEM5WWs/edit?usp=sharing

10:42 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Regarding ANN Looking to buy the June 32 Put for about 4.30 or less if possible. It does carry a 79 delta.

10:37 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Eventful Tuesday and Wednesday for ANN; for one there should be an "uptick at the opening bell tomorrow." using the 39m chart. See the green, the fourth smaller cycle is uptrending vs. three of the other descending cycles.
    Consider buying your ANN June 32 Put at the open.
    so granted by 7:40am, there should be downside action.
    crossroads coming up at 7:40am

10:26 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Prediction: Looks to me that we open on upcycles, since two of the three 39 minute cycles are up.
However, by 5:30am tomorrow, Tuesday, we will progress towards a down cycle.
Remember also that ANN hits a 6:45 am crossroads tomorrow at 6:45am.

10:17 am: 4/22/13 Monday: cycles are not as precise as it is earlier in the day. Need to listen to what the locals are doing in order to get a great read.

9:36 am: 4/22/13 Monday: locals selling ben
8:37 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Ben reports that Russell's at new highs; also confirmed by breadth.
8:40 am: 4/22/13 Monday: TICKS just hit 1K

temporary side to my TNA coverage:
8:25 am: 4/22/13 Monday: As much as I'd want to chase LONG, the mcRon day is a negative -18; bottom right corner chart.

8:05 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Ben pointed out that russell catching a bid. onite high for the russell 914.5; currently at 913.49.
    8:21 am: 4/22/13 Monday: incidentally, the o/night high taken out per alerts.
    Peter noted that if the POC does not migrate, the market will be bearish.
    8:22 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Peter feels that bias is to the upside.

7:50 am: 4/22/13 Monday: Ben said the chicago floor is very quiet.
    Here is my final read, i.e. the 5m
    Hey look at that PEAK at the 2nd to the last smaller cycle; just at the midpoint of the 3rd middle cycle in the largest cycle (just past the 7:29am vertical). So the next consolidation is the 8:10am)
    Subsequent to the 8:10am is the 9:29am consolidation
    Then the final 5m consolidation comes on tomorrow at 4:20am

7:43 am: 4/22/13 Monday: this is the 15 minute charts; currently the times of consolidation are:
   8:47am (today)
   tomorrow, tuesday (6:41am)
   wednesday (4:41am)

7:29am: 4/22/13 Monday: Interesting action how the gap zone acted like a resistance on a occasions
        The below picture is the TNA at $39.05 five minute chart, with upcoming consolidations at the 7:29am (which it currently is obeying $38.90), the subsequent consolidation down cycles are:
    8:10am
    9:29am
    4:20am (tomorrow).

7:08 am: 4/22/13 Monday:
This is the 39m TNA. I've added the vertical red timelines.

Added the times of consolidation for the 39m. So it was 0603am but wasn't heeded, just climbing around the rim of the 39m cycle. the 9:19am consol is yet to be approached. And the 4/23 0536am is tomorrow.

4:26 am: 4/22/13 Monday: brad calls this then next level of support, during this selloff (for the ES). Ticks just hit the -550. The TNA at $37.61.

3:53 am: 4/22/13 Monday: per ben divergent activity, dollar fading while indices also fading; what is the vix doing?
Looks like VIX gathering .

Sunday, April 21, 2013:
5:43 pm: 4/21/13 Sunday: As question that I am posing to myself is How does NFLX handle the down cycle? Currently it is balancing above the green dashed line.

5:34 pm: 4/21/13 Sunday: as you can see in the Analysis Risk Profile, I could lose even more, i.e. $250. However, it should lessen given a declining vix.

3:51 pm: 4/21/13 Sunday: Earnings to tomorrow and NFLX could tank. I hope it beats; although I could take a beating; don't do anything; you do have a tight put spread and that is a "natural hedge." However, if it does spike, I would need to close the spread; anything can happen.
The ROE comes in after market closes; last year NFLX reacted by just being totally flat. The weekly per my review looks bullish as a double bottom the crosse roads on the weekly is 4/24/13 (Wednesday).
However, on the day chart, we are on the very volatile grounds, i.e. a down cycle and on the volatile 2nd to the last small cycle. Currently losing -$92 on that one $175x180 bull put spread.

1:33 pm: 4/21/13 Sunday: SELL ANN; hopefully you get about $28.98; currently TOS wants to pay you $27 for your stock shares.... these guys are corrupt.
   Weekly had ANN peaking about 4/29/13 (the day of the crash for QQQ?)
   Day chart has ANN with a peak sometime Wednesday 4/24/13; sell at EOD; unless target is reached.
   39m Chart shows the Monady 0422 peaks to be either 8:42am or 9:21am.    HEADS UP, the ANN 39m CROSSROADS is 6:45am on Tuesday 4/23/13; and more than likely that is another DROP!!!!
           ANN 39m CROSSROADS is 6:45am on Tuesday 4/23/13; and more than likely that is another DROP!!!!

ANN Options for Monday.
Monday 22 April.
   You may want to start the day by selling a:
       ANN June 29 or 30 Call At about 6:00 am. (Desirable prices = $1.65 to $1.80) Remember:
            ANN 39m CROSSROADS is 6:45am on Tuesday 4/23/13

    Buy
       ONE ANN June 32 Put
           on Monday anywhere from 7:40am (4/22/13--5m high) to 8:40, 8:42 or 9:21am; all on

12:42 pm: 4/21/13 Sunday: the plan for the QQQ is to sell it when it reaches $69.17. The day and wkly cycle brackets point towards a pull back on Friday 0503 and Monday 0506. So in order to buy puts; three conditions must be met:

1)date needs to be 4/26/13 or later. So the earliest buy is on this coming Wednesday.
2) buy at 8:30am or later!
3) VIX needs to be <12
4) Puts need to be May & 80 delta.
    Buy the May 72 Puts currently selling for 3.98/4.09.
        (there's about 4000+ open interest & 26 days left2 expiry)
    Buy 10 puts at $2.40 if it's 4/26/13 or later.
The above is the plan

Remember the Last small cycle peak movements are usually exaggerated, i.e. capitulation, short covering push upwards. Stay calm and stay in the safe time zones of buying.

3:31 am: 4/21/13 Sunday: In the short term, i.e. in the next month, I doubt whether the IWM breaks past its recent high of $94.96 on (03/15). It's tried and failed at 0318 and 320. And each attempts appears weaker; resulting in lower highs. Significant levels to be aware of:
           38.2% = $86.55 (d:-8.51 or -8.9% from the recent hi of $94.96)
           50.0% = $83.95 (d:-11.01 or -11.6% from the recent hi of $94.96)
           61.8% = $81.35 (d:-1361 or -14.3% from the recent hi of $94.96)

3:15 am: 4/21/13 Sunday: Here's a question that I'd asked SLM via email:
Are monthly bearish engulfing patterns worth paying attention to?

Looking at the monthly IWM chart; what if we do not close above last month's close on the IWM,
Should this be of any concern to me? (my answer: I would think so, since monthly cycles>weekly>day>hourly>minute)

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywSXJoYVV4ZWtoZUU/edit?usp=sharing

2:40 am: 4/21/13 Sunday: close NFLX, this might be its peak; especially considering, going into May. It could be forming the 2nd bottom of a double bottom; anything can happen.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywUTNhSF9GQWEzQXM/edit?usp=sharing

Saturday, April 20, 2013:
"the magical 34ma on the 5"

4:14 pm: 4/20/13 Saturday: listening to Friday's tape. Ben had a difficult read on the Locals at 7:10am. What a great idea I'd stumbled upon.

So re-visiting the VIX, at the 7:10am time frame, I'm paying special attention to Slim's greenish yellow 34ma on the 5min chart. The yellow vertical is the 7:10am mark. That white dotted line was

drawn sometime back; not sure what it represents. v v v

v v v v
4:48 pm: 4/20/13 Saturday: at the time of ben's comment, we were on the ascending arc of the 5 minute cycle (7:10am). However, as the VIX approached the 34ma, it began to fade. Then by 7:20am, there was a equal sized red candle with a topping tail, that was subsequently followed by a large dropping red candle. From that point on, it was clear that the VIX would no longer put a challenge to the 34 ma. Later, the VIX would rally to touch the 34ma only to totally fail (being the EOD was approaching in the next hour).

8:21 pm: 4/20/13 Saturday: tk likes using the $NYSI in stockchts as a o/s indicator.

10:21 pm: 4/20/13 Saturday: from the UNG day & 39m cycles; there are respectively drops for NG on thurs (4/25: day) and ends on friday (6:42am 4/26: 39m)
UNG could have a pre-4/26 pop upwards (4:09am 4/24 Wednesday). Buy a put for the following week or month. Or buy DGAZ curr@ $8.42; (UGAZ@ $40.19; UNG@ $24.00). BTW: my charts are mainly with UNG.

11:49 am: 4/20/13 Saturday: more helpful info from pradeep:
http://tinyurl.com/developing-memory

8:20 am: 4/20/13 Saturday: From cammotrader's notes
http://tinyurl.com/cammotrader-options0420

I’m apologizing in advance for the length of this posting and for hogging the timeline. Since it’s the weekend I thought I would push the limit a bit. To make it easier for you, if you are not interested in options, please just skip the post and don’t waste your time. If you are an experienced option trader you should probably skip it as well.
@anewending I have found most option books to be of little value. Most focus on the theories of option trading but in real-time trading, do not have much practical application. @sid recommended McMillan’s book which is a good book to learn everything foundationally you need to know about options so if you are looking for a book it is a good one. The most important aspect I stress when teaching someone about trading options is that in most cases, you still need to be able to get the direction of the underlying correct to be successful trading options. Therefore the first question I always ask is "have you demonstrated a consistent track record of trading stocks?” If the answer is not a confident yes, I strongly encourage this person to avoid options and focus on stock trading. Unlike other vehicles, (stocks, futures, bonds, etfs which are two dimensional) options also include the complexities of implied volatility and time decay. When I first started trading options in 1996 I lost far more then I won because of these dynamics. I had many trades where I thought a stock was going higher so I bought calls. The stock would rise $2 and my options would lose 30% of their value.
The notion of risk free trades or delta neutral trades is a bit misleading. Most trades that I am able to "spread-off" to reduce risk to a low level initially carry a great deal of risk. The example this week with SPY puts that I posted initially carried close to $100k risk before I spread it off by selling a lower strike put. I get into most of my low or zero risk trades by legging into them. Legging carries much higher initial risk than you would encounter if you initiated the position using a spread, but in return gives you the opportunity for higher gains.
If you have confidence in your stock trading and desire to start trading options here is my general recommendations:
•Initially trade a position size that is equal to the dollar amount you are willing to lose in your stock trading plan. I usually see new option traders trying to hit out-of-the-park homeruns who quickly blow up their accounts. If you have a $20k trading account and risk only 5% per position trading stocks ($1,000), then $1000 is the maximum size of your option positions.
•Always give yourself the "gift of time". In other words, buy options with at least 30-days or longer till expiration
•Start by trading spreads. Spreads reduce (not eliminate) the affects of IV and theta decay. As you get more experienced you can leg into your spreads. As beginners I usually recommend buying 1-strike in the money (ITM) and selling 1-strike out of the money (OTM). If the position has one-dollar spreads (some are now coming out with fifty-cent spreads) you will need to go a couple strikes ITM & OTM on each side.
•Don’t get greedy. Look to take at least partial gains at 25% profits. You can always take half your position off and ride the second half until your momo indicators tell you to sell.
•When entering a trade be patient. In most cases you will be able to get a fill at the halfway point between the bid-ask spread or better and if you need to pay more than a nickel higher than the midpoint, you may be better served to look for another opportunity because this is telling you that the liquidity may be lower than desired on these options. Furthermore if you’ve got a bid-ask spread of say $1.25 x $1.65 (not that uncommon) and you pay $1.65 vs. $1.45, your position needs to gain 13.8% before you b/e.
Here’s a test case. I have been asked by another SB member to evaluate their system (which I am not endorsing or rejecting) and provide guidance with respect to incorporating option strategies.
So, their system triggered a IWM sell signal on 4/3/13 so we will look at initiating a bearish option position starting on 4/3 using the mid price of the closing values of the bid-ask spreads on that day.
We will at 3 different scenarios. One buying ITM puts, another buying OTM puts and lastly a spread of buying ITM and selling OTM. (Note: as you get more experience there exists a plethora of strategies to capture premium etc., but for now, let’s KISS [keep it sweet & simple])
IWM closed @ $91.13. - The first step is to determine which month we’d like to use to place our position (we’ve got many choices including weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies, LEAPS, blah blah blah). At this stage let’s only look at monthly expirations that have at least 30-days till expiration but no more then 100). This gives us 2 choices; May with 44 DTE (days till expiration) or Jun 79-DTE - Next look at the implied volatility (IV) of each month to determine if skew exists. Skew is a significant difference from one month to the next. It will likely never be an issue when you are trading ETFs or index products but can be meaningful in stocks, especially during earnings months or when significant announcements such FDA approvals or the likes many be made.
For now if you see a difference in IV’s of more than 2%, avoid them until you determine what is happening. In our example, May has an IV of 18.6% and June’s is 19.1%. Not a big deal. So now it’s a judgment regarding speed of the expected move. If you think your position is going to take longer to achieve your target, use the June strikes, otherwise use May.
For our purposes I’ll run both expiry months side-by-side.
With IWM at ~$91 we’ll go 3-strikes ITM & OTM for this example. 88 = OTM, 91 = ATM, & 94 = ITM
Scenario #1 – Buy OTM Puts (all positions will cost approx $1,000) Buy 9 May 88-puts @ $1.12 or Buy 5 Jun 88-puts @ $1.86
Scenario #2 – Buy ITM Puts Buy 3 May 94-puts @ $3.59 or Buy 2 Jun 94-puts @ $4.35
Scenario #3 – Buy the 94/88 Put spread (buy the 94 strike & sell the 88 strike) Buy 4 May 94/88 spreads @ $2.47 or Buy 4 May 94/88 spreads @ 2.49
So here is what each trade looked like at the onset. Note the negative theta in the individual long put positions, with the greatest being the May 88-put. This is the main cause for new option traders to lose money. With the spreads you start out with positive theta meaning that at least early in the trade, time decay is not hurting you. The trade off is the deltas. You can see that for every dollar drop in the IWM the May 88-puts position will gain $257.13, (mainly because you own twice as many as any other position). There is always trade-offs when using options.
Now, go into your TOS thinkback tab and enter these positions exactly as I’ve outlined starting on Apr 3rd and toggle ahead 1-day at a time looking at the P&L, theta and delta. Since IWM bounced a couple of days after these positions were initiated, pay attention to the draw-downs and the P&L as you go each day. At least one of the positions was down over 60%. In reality could you live with that if you were trading “too big”? Also note which of the positions gave you a 30% gain at some point during the duration of the trade. All this info should help you decide which options to trade, and also emphasizes the need to get the direction of the underlying somewhat correct. As of Friday’s close, the positions looked like this:

Friday, April 19, 2013:

Yesterday on Thursday April 18ths: VIX Crossroads: The VIX was coming towards the "crossroads" of trendlines and how would it react? The downtrend + the downtrending cycle made it highly probable of a collapse; especially considering the time of year, i.e. coming out of a bearish phase of April, following weeks of bullishness.
Note the price action followed the red line and the big green and smaller green cycles were both in descending phases, making the move very powerful and perhaps setting up the next up/down cycle. Please note that the next smaller cyc bracket is a confluence of two cycles; so there could be a "doubling effect." (to be continued in following day under VIX Crossroads....)

11:57am: 4/19/13 Friday: Here is the final chapter of the yesterday's episode of VIX Crossroads....
The VIX moving from the previous chart, before hitting "crossroads," dropped below the supporting green trendline and continued to deteriorate past crossroads. Bear in mind that crossroads, did not happen at the "confluence of cycles," but one small cycle before the confluence.

11:58am: 4/19/13 Friday:And as you can see in the final chart on the VIX Crossroads, the VIX collapsed even further, once it past the crossroads of trendlines and the confluence of cycles (as indicated by the vertical yellow line to the right of "crossroads").

From then on the price of the VIX followed the red trendline downwards into the next cycle; nary a nudge upwards. However, at the end of the 4th small cycle, the VIX did traverse two trendlines and tried rally only to succumb to further weakness past at the third confluence from crossroads.

****************tza v v v
11:30 am: 4/19/13 Friday: tza knocked down to $40.91; losing 3.26%; this is just trying to give the bulls a false sense of life. Market closed bullish and TNA broke the above trendline. Looking positive. However, TNA dropped in the after market. So the cycle did tell a truth; but the market did its thing that ended in contrast to the Prediction.

5:49 am: 4/19/13 Friday: look at that doji. Than next cycle down is the 6:03am on the 39m.
5:43 am: 4/19/13 Friday: anything can happen.

5:42 am: 4/19/13 Friday: here's a post from ben (05:38 Ben: SP NQ TF all enjoying 1% or greater to the upside)
5:28 am: 4/19/13 Friday: now paper sells
5:27 am: 4/19/13 Friday: per ben, the european markets are mixed wr2 closes.

5:24 am: 4/19/13 Friday: on the chart below; look at how beautifully it correlated with the 2nd largest cycle. the next "convergence of cycles is 6:03am" about the time to consider buying. as per ben at 5:16am; just about the time I had the +1000K ticks (& +550; +760 earlier), the locals were selling. I could get a shot of the 5m; the one currently shown is 39m.

4:49 am: 4/19/13 Friday: remember my yester reminder?
(4:20 pm: 4/18/13 will make a mtm for the 3:45am 4/19/13 Friday, VIX cross-roads. What will happen? Who knows?)

4:48 am: 4/19/13 Friday: actually, doug is looking good w/ aapl heading to 400. good trade ds.

4:24 am: 4/19/13 Friday: peter wished that he wanted msft. ung on a pull back; peter says natgas to $5. still no play in gold. huge bottoming tail hammer is not important.

3:35am: 4/19/13 Friday:
Dummies that bot AAPL on the lows yesterday, (doug sly).

Thursday, April 18, 2013:
11:57 AM Apr 18th 2013 VIX Crossroads: The VIX was coming towards the "crossroads" of trendlines and how would it react? The downtrend + the downtrending cycle made it highly probable of a collapse; especially considering the time of year, i.e. coming out of a bearish phase of April, following weeks of bullishness.
Note the price action followed the red line and the big green and smaller green cycles were both in descending phases, making the move very powerful and perhaps setting up the next up/down cycle. Please note that the next smaller cyc bracket is a confluence of two cycles; so there could be a "doubling effect." (to be continued in following day under VIX Crossroads....)

Add caption

Bullish Range Expansion: The only one that came thru with my liquidity screen was: BTU
c/c1>=1.04 and v>v1 and v>100000
and
(c-o)>=.90 and v>=100000

5:57 AM Apr 18th 2013 3d
NUGT: look at weekly GDM, upon which NUGT is based. There is a massive H&S pattern there, and you can see that it's not yet close to its target; there is no support left between where is it now (759) and support at 500. Probabilities point down not up. GDM is a falling knife.

6:25 am: 4/18/13 thursday: interesting that today per peter r. that coals were very strong; also somewhat rebounding about an hour ago was DJUSRR (rails); TRAN (nas transport) & $DJT (dow transport)

5:20 am: 4/18/13 thursday:
volatility symbols

for GOOG is VXGOG; GOLD GVZ; VXAPL (aapl); VXIBM; VXAZN (amzn); VXGS (goldman); VXEEM (europe), VXEWZ (brazil)
ref: http://seekingalpha.com/article/245306-cboe-to-publish-vix-style-volatility-indices-for-individual-stocks

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/05/looks-like-apple-vix-vxapl-futures-are.html

related issue:
October 1, 2009
Why VXX Is Not a Good Short-Term or Long-Term Play
During the last month, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has been turning over an average of 1.3 million shares per day. I am certain that a fair portion of the purchases of VXX have come from investors who have sought to protect their portfolios from an increase in volatility and/or downturn in stocks.
Unfortunately, VXX has considerable shortcomings, both as a short-term and a long-term play.
Investors who are long VXX hope that when volatility increases dramatically, they will benefit by holding the short-term VIX ETN. In fact, when the VIX spikes 10% or more in one day, VXX generally does not cover even half of that move in percentage terms. The table below shows the eight instances since the January launch of VXX in which the VIX rose 10% or more in one day. The results speak for themselves, but in the eight instances over the course of eight months, VXX has been capturing only one third to two thirds of the VIX spike.

Wednesday, April 16, 2013:
10:58 am: 4/17/13 wednesday: there is a great probability that the market bounces tomorrow at the open. However, I have lost $$$ three days in a row. I will not risk another down day.
    Why do I feel for the bounce? a). the $TRIN is >1.40 which makes it probable for a bounce. b). both mco 15 & day are both highly negative -479 & -108 respectively. c). the bluesky indicator is <30 (26%). However, even with a high probability of a bounce, the market momentum is powerfully south.

10:14 am: 4/17/13 Wednesday: There's a good probability per IWM Weekly Cyclical brackets that we hit the low in the coming week of 4/22.
9:27 am: 4/17/13 Wednesday: do not go against mm, even for a bounce back trade. although the trin is 2.70 and the mac is -518.15min & -111.96day

8:26 am: 4/17/13 wednesday: useful website from cammo:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/page/marketsdata.html

3:30:00am: Anything can happen; whenever I post, I make better trades, I become accountable.   I do not let my wild spirit go.
   Paper was buying (paper is buying) locals are selling. Should've sold at the open. That's where my

Tuesday, April 16, 2013: Good trade TNA; bad trade TZA -500; intra day trades very bad getting sucked in by market vol.
   Did not heed the McClellan 15 minute: 4/16/13 12:00pm: Bad Mac read; should've waited; look at the 15 minute mac +688!!!!; look at the market profile; too many ppl buying at bad prices!!

Monday, April 15, 2013: Bot bad price of TNA losing initially 3K; then brought it down to -1300

Sunday, April 14, 2013
2:16pm: 4/14/13 Sunday: Levels to be aware of this coming week for the IWM:


6:48am 4/14/13 Sunday: The fibonacci studies on the IWM backtesting is incredible for the predictive levels of support. Look at the 261.8%; backtesting the dates of 1/24/11 to the peak of 5/2/12. The high of the middle, high right oval, i.e. 5/2/12 was 85.49; while the low of the first oval, i.e. to the bottom left oval 76.95. The bottom right oval was 64.79, just below the 261.8% fibonacci. I find this very compelling! BTW isn't that a beautiful inverse head & shoulders? Then followed by #2 smaller head & shoulders, then another inverse h&s, then a fed induced double bottom.

1:00pm 4/14/13 Sunday: Research on Market Profile & /GC and other indices
    I'm of the understanding that Market Profile could be used for commodities, e.g. /GC.
    So, I'm using my MProfile set up for /GC, & what do you think of this Friday's /GC "double distribution?"
        (looks like a man pointing his gun forward, from his tummy level)
    And it looks to me like there were "buyers at bad prices (poor high)," which could indicate more downside in gold.

retro-view on 9/14/12 Friday:
Single prints at four letters (labeled as "4"):
Asking Peter: Generally, how many upticks or higher single prints, would you say "qualifies a given footprint" as an excess high. In the given graphic we have four levels of single prints prior to the 9/4/12 Market top.

Here's a good question:
Peter: I've done some "retro-views" of near tops prior to notable pull backs:
Please comment on my observations:
1) Observation #1: on 10/20/12, there was the SIX Levels of single prints, excess highs. However, that given Friday, was not the highest close of the week, nor was it the highest price level per given trading day for that week.

So, just by this one observation, I'm left with the notion that the EXCESS High that could lead to a larger pull back, need not be the recent or short term high.

I also looked at 9/15/12, which did have a short term high, with four single print, EXCESS highs.

Just to supplement the above pictures, here is a broader view taken from 4/12/13:

not as important notes, that I'm burying later in this date: WHR: 4/14/13 10:22am: WHR continues to look as though it has a potential to develop into a h&s. However, as B. says, price pays.

Saturday, April 13, 2013
2:08pm 4/13/13 Saturday: Interesting shot of the TNA cycles veiwed per day chart. There are 12 day cycles that were recurring in several different progressions. The current progression looks to be a downward progression, that occurs in a series of threes. So this current white oval is cycle #2; and if it plays out, then cycle three is downwards, contrary to what Larry Williams stated on his video; and he has been wrong repeatedly.

4/13/13 2:25 pm: Here is mhp's comment regarding the Mac T2106
9:34 PM Apr 10th 2013
mhp reports very promising results from using T2106 (McClellan Oscillator),

don't take longs when yesterday's 3-day average < 0,
and don't take shorts when > 0.
Key point: a less optimized (looser) version of the system
does better with this filter
than the more optimized version does with or without the filter.
This makes sense: choose your side based on breadth, and be less fussy about picks
when you're with the market.
http://stockbee.biz/search/?query=mcclellan&query=Finally+got+around+to+modifying+my+software+so+I+can+import

    So considering mhp's comment, I've gotten the script for the 3dma of the Mac:
declare lower;

input exchange = {default NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX};
input fastLength = 19;
input slowLength = 39;
input over_bought = 100;
input over_sold = -100;
input ratioAdjusted = No;

def advances;
def declines;
switch (exchange) {
case NYSE:
    advances = close("$ADVN");
    declines = close("$DECN");
case NASDAQ:
    advances = close("$ADVN/Q");
    declines = close("$DECN/Q");
case AMEX:
    advances = close("$ADVA");
    declines = close("$DECA");
}
def breadth;
if (ratioAdjusted) {
    breadth = 1000 * (advances - declines) / (advances + declines);
} else {
    breadth = advances - declines;
}

rec breadthCorr = if !IsNaN(breadth) or IsNaN(close) then breadth else breadthCorr[1];
plot McClellanOsc = ExpAverage(breadthCorr, fastLength) - ExpAverage(breadthCorr, slowLength);
plot OverBought = over_bought;
plot OverSold = over_sold;
plot ZeroLine = 0;

McClellanOsc.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(1));
OverBought.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
OverSold.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(5));
ZeroLine.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(3));

input price = close;
input length = 3;
input displace = 0;

plot SMA = (Average(plot McClellanOsc = ExpAverage(breadthCorr, fastLength) - ExpAverage(breadthCorr, slowLength);

SMA.SetDefaultColor(GetColor(1));

Friday, April 12, 2013:
8:12am: 4/12/13 Friday:
The reason for my remaining bullish are several fold: 1) considering today was a sell off day, it really is more of a "ranged bound, non-trending day." So exercise your body & exercise caution. The 28%Q is probably still positive
Interesting cycle brackets; I've got it; it's now its "integrated," with "crossroads." See below:

3:46am: interesting beat down day at the open, with the HOPE recovery of TNA; my system called it from the start.

Thursday, April 11, 2013
7:22am 4/11/13 Thursday: here's some great quotes
riverside epiphany:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywMnl1SXR1NnpubHc/edit?usp=sharing

1:43 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
Is it about time for the 2pm fade???
1:36 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@007: One of the more interesting things I've learned about trading is that there is more than one way to skin a cat, more than one way to trade the same thing, and they all can make money. There is no one "right way." I wouldn't have thought that.....
1:30 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@mhp: I use several factors to day trade SPY on,
one of them is the intraday 25%Q # relative to yesterday's closing level...
1:29 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
Apologies, 2.26% traded..(math error)
1:25 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
10% of the daily SPY volume just traded....1 minute ago...
1:16 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@007: I'm not saying that you can't pick stocks nor buck the trend.
But ask yourself this....
if 4209 stocks are up today and 1252 are down,
do you want to be playing from the long side or the short side?
Where are the odds most in your favor?
1:14 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@swat: Sorry guy, my mistake. Everyday on the MM, there is a number for the number of stocks up 25% in a quarter. You'll be amazed at the usefulness of that number....
1:06 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@swat: What is the correlation of the daily 25%Q number to the daily market move?
Do the math.
Then calculate each day the net 25%Q number.
If it is higher than yesterday you better not be short, and vice versa....as I say, do the math.
1:04 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
position sizing and diversification....
12:59 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@RobinBanks: I'm familiar with EGs trades, I thought he was talking about other traders in general. I realize EG has a handle on this approach, which is why I'm on this site. I'm just not up to his speed in the learning curve yet. I have a personal bias that says if you want to be a great stock trader, first be a great market timer. I'm probably wrong about that, but as I say, it is my bias....(I get stuck at stock selection risk...you do everything right and then KPMG comes out and says they've been illegal/unethical - how do you manage that!?!)
12:55 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@swat: my approach is 100% breadth and it seems to be working just fine. Watch the 25Q levels from day to day if you are not already, they'll help you a bunch.
12:53 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
ITB Home Construction Index is Down on the day...now that's interesting.
12:43 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
@cwntrader...how do I look at EGs returns for active traders???? Lemonade is great! I'm still daytrading (which works for me) until I can get a better handle on overnight risk, but I do see that there is more return there.
12:37 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
Ditto what Bandselect had to say.
12:36 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
Anyone have any experience using pivots? I'd be curious if they test out statistically...so far the 1587 pivot seems to be holding.
12:34 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
5 days ago, the best minds said the trend was down. Now it is up again. Everyone is playing catch up. This has and still could, scoot...
12:24 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
Great article for those with interest... (NOTE: I'm an anathema to this site because I believe in market timing equity indexes and don't feel smart enough to pick individual stocks.) http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/03/22/swear-off-individual-stocks-for-better-returns/

http://tinyurl.com/swearOffStocks

12:11 PM Apr 10th 2013 Riverside
+/-4%=53-10; +/-25%Q is net 652-252=400 (yest was net 325). Breadth always thin in mature bull runs, but that can persist, until it doesn't. Go with the numbers until they actually change.....

7:22am 4/11/13 Thursday: here's some great quotes
Learned Optimism:
3 dimensions of languages:
mhp: epiphany
Finally got around to modifying my software so I can import and use TC2000 market indicators. Very promising results from using T2106 (McClellan Oscillator), don't take longs when yesterday's 3-day average < 0, and don't take shorts when > 0. Key point: a less optimized (looser) version of the system does better with this filter than the more optimized version does with or without the filter. This makes sense: choose your side based on breadth, and be less fussy about picks when you're with the market. It only took me 15 years to figure this out. I've tried testing various breadth indicators before, but only using an already optimized (i.e. curve-fitted) system, so I never saw any benefit. Many of you are way ahead of me on this...

4:22am 4/11/13 Thursday: did you know that the T2106 (mcclellan oscillator) is based on NYSE?
From Jeremy at Worden:

[ron] What index is the T2106 (McClellan Oscillator) based on?
[Server] You are now being helped. Chat SessionID:102040774
[Server] ron has joined.
[Server] Support - Jeremy has joined.
[Support - Jeremy] The NYSE.
[Support - Jeremy] Here is its entry in our T2 online help files entry:
[Support - Jeremy] The McClellan Oscillator is reported each day by many financial news services. Their reported value will almost always be different than our value because, as mentioned earlier, we use every stock on the NYSE. The overall trend of the indicator, however, will be the same. The McClellan Oscillator is calculated by subtracting a 39 day moving average of (Advances – Declines) from a 19 day moving average of (Advances – Declines). It not only works as an overbought/oversold indicator, it works fairly well at making short-term trend changes when it crosses the zero line. Here again it is very important that you set your chart scaling to Arithmetic because the McClellan Oscillator will be negative on some market days and negative values cannot be displayed on a Logarithmic scale. Note: Scaling must be set to Arithmetic for the chart to be displayed properly.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013:
12:00noon: overly bearish got me to lose $815. bummer!
Not watch slim or brad, etc. tomorrow is rollover day.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013: 07:30pm.
Made an amazing realization using the cycle brackets; doing it over several time frames is extremely telling and invaluable.

Monday, April 8, 2013:
1:59pm: very interesting experience with the cyclical brackets. Really enjoy using it to give me an approximate time frame; which is indeed good enough.

Sunday, April 7, 2013:
14:59pm: (6.5898*VIX)-IWM on the TOS charts suggests problems in April to May.

9:33am: 4/7/13 Sunday: The REITs have done well; so I'll be buying SNH on a pull back to 26.71-26.83, between this coming Tuesday thru Friday.
If SNH breaks the aforementioned levels, I'll be buying on strength.
I've got my alerts set & my text notes on the charts are already there.

I had gotten the below via suggested read by mhp in stockbee:
4/7/13 9:01 am: via mhp chartsetcetera:
using mortgage reit NLY as a gauge of market cycles?
very interesting perspective; need to see if it works; review the cb every few weeks.

http://tinyurl.com/chartsetc
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/
http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/04/using-mortgage-reits-to-time-market.html
also mortgage reits as an indicator: http://tinyurl.com/mortgagereit

Friday, April 5, 2013:
8:26am 4/5/13 Friday: I think I am on the right track. Oh yes, the continuous pics below, shows the April NFLX 190 put, the put that I intend to buy on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 and cash in on it a week later. So the market will apparently spike on that day.
I intend to close my floundering NFLX May 175x180 Bull PS. That spike will make the loss less negative. Spreads are to be closed as a unit; perhaps I can simply just close the 180 leg saving me commissions. Currently with NFLX at $164, that put is ITM!!!! woohoo!!!!
AND the delta is 80 for the May 175

Thursday, April 4, 2013:
14:10pm 4/4/13 Thursday: The last time the nhspx and nhTC went single digits were 2/215/13 & 2/2113, i.e. the the large candles.

What will the NH be tomorrow?

6:56am 4/4/13 Thursday: John NY at alphatrends posted this interesting article.:
http://tinyurl.com/johnNY-pivot-levels-hft

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

13:01pm 4/3/13 Wednesday: Guru prefers the TI65 > TI42
ETF Portfolio
The ETF portfolio objective is to find good risk reward ETF trades based on either:
market breadth extremes
4% breakouts
TI65 breakouts (TI 65 going above 1.05 or below .95)
It will be infrequently traded.
It is not swing trading focused. But holding periods will be considerably shorter than Working people portfolio as ETF moves tend to be of shorter duration in most market conditions.
ETF related to US stock market tend to cluster together in signal term at same time. You saw that today.
The position sizing decision is entirely up to individual person's risk tolerance. Suggested position sizes are just suggestions.
Current Position
TZA: Current Stop= 36.80
FAZ: 41.73
UVXY: 7.15
DTO: 40
All four were picked based on 4% signal at start of a trend.
If market corrects 5 to 8% you are looking at 15 to 25% returns on these positions. The VIX related ETF can make even bigger moves.
As the trades progress we will look at opportunities to add.
5:46 PM Apr 3rd 2013easyguru
@bluesky for finding continuation breakout in longer duration trends TI 65 is better. TI 42 can be more noisy. But my primary signal is 4% b/o so it really does not matter.
6:51 PM Apr 3rd 2013easyguru
@Guru, for ETF port, why TI65 and not TI42?
6:36 PM Apr 3rd 2013BlueSky

4/3/13 4:58 am: Brad made a very interesting comment re: the /ES, i.e. if the pattern continues sideways, a bear flag will be formed, i.e. bearish in the coming days.

4:54am 4/3/13 Wednesday:
Today is a "b" day forming; I'll be buying a Deep ITM put on NFLX.

10:46 AM Apr 3rd 2013 pthots.

questions get you into forward thinking
.... while (quick, impulsive) answers, can sometimes bite you
per eg retail stocks comment...
ANF (day): beginnings of a double bottom?
perhaps
look at JCP.... (db perhaps?)
anything can happen.....

Tuesday, April 2, 2013:
11:12am 4/2/13 Tuesday: Interesting TL find: i.e. for TNA using the 5 minute view for break below then above the TL draw several; algorithms make it challenging.
Also the 39m will give you the ball park time t+25minutes.

Monday, April 1, 2013:
11:23am: 4/1/13 Monday: Wow USHL took a beating; BPNYA now converged.

4/1/13 10:56 am: btw: the $TRIN dropped from a day high of 1.64 (just when the were $TICKS > -1000)
However, it lost momentum as it approached the closing bell; closing at 1.34.
(for newstockbees): My general rule of thumb: >1.40 = bearish
IMO, this adds to the below comments that suggest a higher probability of bullishness at the open

anything can happen...

6:36am: trying to do all types of moves to counter my NOT "following the plan." On a positive note, I am NOT panicking as I usually and often do, whenever screwing up. I've accepted responsibility for this bad trade and also accepted:
"anything can happen."
And it would be in my best interest to wait 'til the EOD; oops time to take a snapshot.

00:19am:reiterated "follow the plan."

Sunday, March 31, 2013:
11:26pm 3/31/13 Sunday: An interesting read that I'll be putting on MTM:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywZTBRS25GN1gzQ2c/edit?usp=sharing

10:21pm 3/31/13 Sunday: I did a new pcf called the 34ma, and it's a reversion pcf based on SLM's usage of the 34 ma. I've also added liq & PEAD filters: Came up with the following:
NFLX    MW    CRZO    MAS
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywcHlyZUF6UWgwVUk/edit?usp=sharing

   btw: if you need an updated day chart:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nflx,mw,crzo,mas

9:59pm 3/31/13 Sunday: very interesting calendar that bluesky posted (8:48 PM Mar 31st 2013) since a three of my "crossroad" days are:
http://stockbee.biz/aggregator/tweets/archive/2013/3/31/
    Apr 4, 5 & 8. All but the 4th are the weakest of days.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

4:25am: WMT (bearish concerns me: possible base forming.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywZmQzbG93MGplY0U/edit?usp=sharing0
2:03am 3/30/13 Saturday:
Here's a question that is always worth exploring:
How does stock price performance correct itself?
Yes, by price... and by time.
As you may notice below in CRZO (I am not recommending it, just for demonstation purposes....)
Notice following the "price correction" how the market profile formed a series of "b" formations (sellers selling at the low end) (with occasional "p" formations (buyers buying at the high end).
Then notice the "gradual compression" of the market profile, towards the point of control of the volume profile (a key support point).
Then as the process goes on (this is a 15 minute 20 day chart), the height of the footprints lessens, with a current "compressed" b formation.
You could probably identify this "compression of price action" by the bollinger bands or by observing range compression (as guru calls it).
I'll call it price acceptance as delineated by the time spent, i.e. another form of a stock's correction.
01:59am: 3/30/13 Saturday:
Beware of the CRZO "shooting stars."
BTW: here is a shot of the wkly CRZO: I noted down "beward of shooting stars a year or so ago, well, I revisited that comment and will amend it to....
be mindful of long tail weekly dojis & candlesticks...... very telling.
Stock are derivatives of human behavior (in a stock market scenario).

Friday, March 29, 2013: Happy Good Friday: Here's to looking forward!
6:30 PM 3/29/13 Friday: The good, the bad and the ugly:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywbDRTa0NCLXozTEE/edit?usp=sharing

13:47pm:
Regarding the 34 & 89 MA; incredible how "telling it is," with regards to almost "rhythmical oscillation of the price action to the 34 MA (i.e. the divergence, and reversion towards the MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
For SFD, I found it almost pointing out patterns to me as it "oscillated."
double bottom h&s double
v v v v v v bottom v v v
Asked SLM: "How did you come about choosing this MA? I think it's brilliant!"

9:48am: Much volatility in CLF coming up.

6:20am: 3/29/13 Saturday: Looks to me like the yen is rallying: It is currently above my descending trendling and there is supposed to be a "pull back at 7:40am" today! I've set the timer to 1:40hour/min to alert me & to review the futures; just to test the 39 minute pattern.

3/29/13 6:01am: here's the john carter video on 0326 Tuesday:
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/The-Yen-is-Back-in-Play.cfm
remember that the yen is /J7

3/29/13 5:41am Saturday: I am setting the first reminder on this coming Thursday; re: the 0511am note just below this.

3/29/13 05:11am: Saturday: Regarding my pdfs: I will no longer include LIQ in the title due to my own understanding that >$20 & >1mspd are my standards.

Also, unless otherwise designated as "wkly," all charts are dailies.
Regarding the 3/26 11:59am pdf: these includes my filtered c&h. The included stocks are: rhi cbg csc mas and whr. I have marked the chart, so build on these insights. Anything can happen. Interesting "double cup & handles" of a few of these patterns.
RHI: Looks early IMO.
CBG: double c&h
CSC: double c&h
MAS: consecutive c&h

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywUXRqWmdGTDdQS1k/edit?usp=sharing

3/29/13: 5:45am: KISS: Just go with whatever comes in your MTM! This is your plan!

no scanning from here on in... or simply just go with your alerts & re-alerts.
Refresh your alerts on:
RHI
CBG
CSC
MAS
These are your horses. mtm title: double cup & handles: CBG; consecutive c&h: SCS; early c&h: RHI

Other useful pdfs with stocks:
PEAD >20%adv >0.001% PEAD: SAML DECKSFD ULTA:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B7NJku4NeOywOV9Jalh0TXZRTWM/edit?usp=sharing

Thursday, March 28, 2013:
4:28am 3/28/13 Thursday:

3/28/13 4:28am: Regarding RHI: crossroads low on 4/26/13: (look at RHI chart... start at weekly level)
1. Make your alerts on price action levels

2. re-do the cycle brackets; get a 39m and 65m prognostication on when

3. consider a 500 share order; without calls... because if it spikes up; you will be encumbered by this short call. Remember you are bottom fishing on this desirable stock.

3:35am 3/28/13 Thursday: RHT fugly crashing.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013:
10:41 PM Mar 27th 2013pthots

10:41: 3/27/13
    Finviz has RHI on the day chart with a double top;
    I disagree & have used the weekly chart for a better long term view of it.
    Put your alerts on pull backs, then watch how it responds. I'm very interested on buying on strength.
    I also feel that guru was spot on with the shippers (a group that @cammo clued us in on in September 2012) the only one coming close to my criteria is KEX; it's under my 1 million shares per day criteria. I might make an exception.
gravitar10:39 PM Mar 27th 2013pthots

8:29pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
    Just got a note from an acquaintaince that provides data to large corporations:
    (functionally stating that this rally was facilitated by corporate buy backs).
    "Corporate Buying Continues to Outpace Corporate Selling in March. Estimated Float of Shares Decreases $20.5 Billion, Driven by Large Buybacks for Financial Companies.
    Corporate America continues to buy more than it sells in the U.S. stock market. We track what companies do by estimating the change in the float of shares as follows:
    Estimated Change in Float = New Offerings + Net Insider Selling – 2/3 New Cash Takeovers – Completed Cash Takeovers – New Stock Buybacks....

6:43pm: 3/27/13 Wednesday
RHT = AH V bottom.... incredible

5:49pm: 3/27/13 Wednesday
@stkb.... I like the action, upside & chart on BIIB (even though it didn't break $85 today); except it's not in my group of stocks. So I'll be looking instead to buy INCY on pull backs...
    As I'm sure you know, this is the time (few months before the biotech conferences begin: e.g. AACR (April 6-10))

5:21pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
So it'll be INCY for me on a pull back.

5:15pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
    @sid is not a strategic options trader
    "@sid... oh really?
    Seemed like the trades I'd tried of yours were plays on volatility, theta & other greeks..
sorry. Wrong impression."

4:49pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
    IMO, the IWM might has a higher probability tomorrow at a up open; signals showed me that my initial thesis today was less than correct, e.g. nh-nl rose steadily towards the close.
    Fact that there was a bullish close with an indecisive breadth + a few other indicators seem to suggest a few more days of choppy up (see that "V" shaped pattern).
    IMO from price action & bipolar breadth changes from the past few days, a high probability of a choppiness tomorrow....
    Besides... tomorrow is EO Quarter...
    Usually much of the action is day before EOQ (today)
    Pay special attention to the wedge on the chart below... I call intersection it the "cross roads line"... these dates have been very critical for some reason or another (red is a longer term trend line... green line was previously longer term resistance ... now it's support) what'll happen?
    anything can happen
    I have my long positions and short positions (short positions are bear call spreads on WMT, ANN)... also with entry positions on QID. I'm playing the probabilities (sideways & possibly down).

4:47pm 3/27/13 Wednesday to @sid: (why am I expecting a spike 2morrow?): just the way the mkt closed.
    The scenario that I would've expected was a stronger fade at the close. However, the nh-nl kept ramping up.However, a "non-directional strategic options" trader like you has a lot of opps in this sideways choppy market..... however.... I have more concerns than two days ago... I'll post a chart once I finish logging my thots..

4:09pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
    High probability of an opening bell spike tomorrow; good stuff guys.

gravitar4:01 PM Mar 27th 2013pthots

4:01pm 3/27/13 Wednesday
    buy the rumor sell the news....

3:59pm 3/27/13 Wednesday: stkb... BIIB ....higher probability of a fade... just did some quickie analysis... IBB is an alternative, i.e. the biotech etf.

3:41am 3/27/13 Wednesday
    INCY is a bio that I am closely following (yes it is a PEAD).
    Interesting that the /ES spiked to 1558.25 (yet backed off from its ATH of 1558.75 (yesterday's high).... thot that was interesting.
    Will it be taken out tomorrow? We'll see.....

Tuesday, March 26, 2013:
12:02 pm: results of my PEAD liq c&h:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/a4gmb92p4y5cbt5/pfinviz20130326%20rhi%20cbg%20csc%20mas%20whr.pdf

Monday, March 25, 2013:
5:40pm: guru suggested EPV; however, this is just a thinly traded stock, trading <500K per day; there seems to be a bottom coming tomorrow; so there might be a concomitant spike in the Euro in the first hour or so....

10:06am: Market closed indecisive.

2:48am 3/25/13 Monday, need to do my reports: cup and handles that were interesting over the weekend:

2:45am: Reflecting on a post I'd made yesterday, there seems to be more to the upside of QQQ. As much as I might want to short the Qs, it might be a better idea to long it.

So, regarding my previous 2:21 PM Mar 22nd Question on stockbee: "QQQ: Double bottom or h&s.."

at least for now, a double bottom.... and a continuation pattern to the upside.

interesting how strong the laggard /NQ is with regards to the overnight action. At current, it's just 11 points or so from taking out its recent highs:

currently, it's lurking below R1

Sunday March 24, 2013

4:16am: 3/24/13 Sunday: There are numerous snapshots done on this day, inclusive of WHR, and SFLY. Made the tos drawings.buy....good stuff. this note is done for search purposes, so I can refer to my written journal.
here's just a sample of a snapshot; for time saving purposes however, I think it's best that you refer to this given date & times for SFLY (4:03am 3/24/13 Sunday) and WHR (4:20am 3/24/13 Sunday). Please see the snaps b.low v v v

Saturday, March 23, 2013:
5:03pm: 3/23/13 Saturday: This goes under, "trading your plan." and keeping the trade.
I have made EDZ bearish purchases on the last day of trading in March, then the first two trading days of April. BOT 400 shares in two increments of 200s. I also bot one put each day of deep ITM puts (>85 Delta

2:16pm 3/23/13 Saturday: Setting up bear call spreads using the TQQQ (roughly comes out to 50c profit; however, -.06 for both ways; allowing just a maximum of 44c. x 20 = $80.
the break even point is $63.50; currently the TQQQ is at $60.04

11:23am 3/23/13 Saturday: The violation of the ascending line with that large red candle should have been my clue to what was going on. That Large topping doji was in hindsight, extremely bearish.

10:10am: 3/23/13 Saturday: PCYC has given a few much pain... (slydog ha!). However, look at the 15 min cup & handle. I'm setting an alert for PCYC this coming April, especially since it took a major beat down this past week.
I made a MTM for 4/13 & 4/15-16 with the below c&h 15 minute of yester. Remember last year the weakness occurred on 0416(2012) & 0430. Put these notes on the chart via price & time lines, with the "buy" drawings.

Friday, March 22, 2013: Today is creeping bullish:
7:02am 3/22/13 Friday: CIEN: Oh! this dog is giving me pain! Bleeding a little each day; today even more. TOS or me with a mess up on a trade, I'm pretty sure I typed out the .41 credig for the Jly 15x14 CIEN bull put spread; got filled at .32c. Oh well.

6:59am 3/22/13 Friday: ANN at its lows; consolidating.

6:30am 3/22/13 Friday: Volume is light and CIEN is a dog that is punishing me.
Next time with these droppers, continue to trade small which is what I'd done with CIEN. So YAY! nhspx is slowly moving up.

4:28am 3/22/13 Friday: Selling or trying to sell a bull put spread for CIEN:

3:51am 3/22/13 Friday:

Thursday, March 21, 2013: Today is my appointment with Leon Garcia!
10:04pm 3/21/13 Thursday: What is going to happen at the 3/22/13 1:06am cross?

3:30pm 3/21/13 Thursday:
As per not regarding ANN; I should NOT look a gift horse in the mouth and take the profits in ANN; there is a fading almost scary degradation of the stock market. So I would hope for a spike in the morning or perhaps a drop followed by a 4:05am rally.
Look to sell ANN at the 30.57 to 30.65 point.
Trail your stop up! :)

2:18pm 3/21/13 Thursday: I was very impressed with robin dayne's presentation on forward thinking.
So rather than thinking in the losing, e.g. Why did I make that trade?

Ask: Where can I exit these positions?

8:51am 3/21/13 Thursday: Need to get out. Why was there a spike on CIEN?
When can I get out?
Forward thinking questions.

00:00am 3/21/13 Thursday: Posted this in stockbee yester:

Divergence
I understand that the vbbee MM 10 day # dropped below 2 for the 2nd day in a row. IMO, a sell signal.
However, on the other hand, there seems to be more bait for retailers to go to the long side, based on pattern recognition.
granted TA is less effective in news driven markets
however, here are the visuals:
15 minute charts, RTD.

TNA: inverse h&s

TZA: h&s

NUGT: choppy, sort of a h&s

DUST: choppy....unsure

/DX: h&s...

probabilities to the upside; us dollar seems to be heading south for the short term.
```
divergent uptrend (*be careful*) 
```
```
 
```

Wednesday, March 20, 2013
9:59am 3/20/13 Wednesday: Just thot I'd add the bearish chart:
This shows you NOT to play stkb's plays such as "S" (yesterday) he is too ADHD.
Your identity is PEAD.

9:31am: 18th & 19th repair of poor highs.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AVP,BX,CRZO,CSC,DECK,GPOR,MAS,MCHP,MW,NAV,QLIK,RHI,SEE,SFD

3:45am: 3/20/13 Wednesday: Here's richard's gappers:

2:59am 3/20/13 Wednesday:

Definition of 'Inside Day'

A candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given security falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day often refers to all versions of the harami pattern and can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.

Investopedia explains 'Inside Day'

An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.

This issue was brough up by a discussion yester between bluesky & swat. BTW swat came up with a pcf for the inside day as:
H1 > H AND L1 < L

So the "outside day would be (the engulfment patterns)"

2:00am: 3/20/13 Wednesday:
Question to ask oneself: are your signals external or internal?

goal of mine's:
attune to external signals
avoid, filter out the NOISE (proliferation of both self & other generated & often inaccurate INTERNAL signals )
questions are eternal
Question to ask oneself: Are your signals external or internal?
From patients, who in the past, occasionally & happen to be MD residents, the general goal in psychiatry try to get delusional patients back into reality (real, external signals).
External signal: Market generated... ALERTS ALERTS ALERTS. PRICE ACTION (vs. what you are thinking).
Internal signal (generated between one's ears).
(Raining (external signal)).
"I don't like rain.." (internal signal)
External signal: CLF/NFLX downtrending.
Internal signal: CLF/NFLX is a buy!

Monday, March 18, 2013 10:53pm: Very interesting insight regarding CRM; I'd done the research on this fine stock; the insight gotten is that CRM should be more predictable having gone thru my extensive search & screening process. CRM is a PEAD & swing turn valuemonger. Possible buy point is about the 153-154 region; target could be 225.
What makes CRM intriguing is the interesting of the CB time line and the tertiary trend line.

Friday, March 15, 2013:
10:50am: 3/15/13 Friday:
Perhaps you should be aware for "pattern formations" late in the trading day, e.g. the 9:28am "double bottom," which could be seen only by the 5 minute chart.

10:42am: 3/15/13 Friday:
In the future:
Remember to research the overnight HI (gapper upper) /LOW (pooper):
Please note that the 4:14 am (yes I BOT too early) should've concerned me.
The second test & failure of the overnight high, showed much downside action left.
I would've practiced patience, when the ONite low is violated.
Waiting until 8:35am and 9:35am for the second increment might have been wise.

10:10am: 3/15/13 Friday: The Ides of March: Weird, weird day.
The market tanked; Peter commented on ULTA, which BTW I also read in the queue of the ST Chatroom. I also shorted the SSYS Apr 65 Puts for $1.96; so if I were put the stock, my cost would be $63.04.

3:51am: BOT 400 Shares of ULTA at $75.789
In hindsight, I should have
3/15/13 Friday 8:35:33: BOT 3rd increment 100@ $73.2699. (average is now $75.1546) for 600 shares).
6:40am: added in the quiet period $74.50 x 100. $avg: $75.53
6:22am: very powerful push just prior to approaching the cb lows.
6:07am: continued craziness: looks like a dbottom forming.
5:46am: this is the lunchtime craziness.
5:28am: There seems to be an attempted shake out, as ulta dropped to $75.35. Let's get out soon.
5:21am: 76.15 is my first sell or stop. (was too slow!!!!)
5:11am: Peter's at my side. TNA bot at $75.78.
Lesson: Per Peter's guidelines for gappers: I was supposed to sell the 0.005% of the total i.e. $76.15; which would've given me a 38c profit x 400 = $152.
Be clear on what to do!

Incidentally, the TDPressure Ratio, DPO, RSI Wilder, MACD, TI42 all kept me in the trade.
ULTA:

SSYS:

Thursday, March 14, 2013
6:42pm: 3/14/13 Thursday:
There are several sources of NH-NL, the ones that I use are derived from the TC (common stocks) and the other from my TOS platform (SPX: Alexander Elder uses the SPX)"
From my TOS platform, I was just playing with my data & NH-NL charts (derived from the SPX).
@bluesky once commented on the "spikes" of the "NH-NL." I never fully understood his insight.... & I've read & re-read Alexander Elder's trading for a living as well as his pdf handout (for buyers of his book).
After messing around with the Cycle Brackets, I decided to employ comparative studies (SPX, NASD, DJI) to the NH-NL(SPX) line graph.
Then after playing around with the charts, I decided to take a WEEKLY perspective on the LINE chart.
Then the pattern recognition struck me like a lightning bolt!!! This insight was awesome!
Inverse head & shoulders, the inverse peak was 11/13/12; FOUR days before the November market bottom.... back then I wasn't as adept about manipulating the data & concomitant views.
So here is the view: as you may note, upcoming is a potential double top or a break out of the highs.
My question is: will the NH-NL "take out the 405 level or fail?"
This will be answered in the coming days.
....anything can happen

11:33am: 3/14/13 Thursday:
Regarding the ERX;
"can you say inverse h&s?"

buy it; set your stops then manage the trade.

11:19am: 3/14/13 Thursday:
It appears the weekly CB (cycle brackets) could've been applied to the 15 minute bar; keeping me in the trade of the short put spread DDD Apr 30x26.675 put spread sold & bot back at $1.26.

3/14/13 11:12am: Re: DDD
Sold the April 30x26.675

put spread for $1.26; bot it

back for $1.26. That big

red candle that broke trend

line was my concern.

Close it & moved on.

However, if I'd used the

weekly CBracket, I might

have felt more inclined to

wait the next trading day.

Needless to say, the big red bar was followed by the large blue bullish bar.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013
5:26am: Sent this note to brad:

Tuesday, March 12, 2013:
6:12 PM: Crude looks like it double bottomed.

Saturday, March 9, 2013:

4:55am 3/9/13 Saturday: This is a retro view of jan 3, 2013; reviewing the dec 31, 2013 color flip wr2
the IWM.
this is a 15 minute chart; I drew TL based on day charts. Th1227 IWM broke TL support; it rallied, however closed that day below the TL
On Fri1228, the last candle, delineated by the green arrow pointing LEFT, completed the double bottom.
However, it wasn't until the 15 minute candle crossed the "crossroads" & breaking the neck line of the double bottom.

3:54am 3/9/13 Saturday:
FOCUS: The VBEE Color flip from Thursday, November 15, 2012 to Friday, November 16, 2012:
Both bsky's >10sma & the 5ma of next column over, both flipped away from the negative to positives!
Also, vbbee, which spotted the 11/16/13 change, flipped to green on Friday, November 16, 2012; then the buy signal was generated on Monday, November 19, 2012, i.e. per vbbee rule.

This color flip also occurred on 12/31/12 i.e. vb's mm5 & mm10 both flipped on mon1231 (1st of two consecutive greens) ; (1st of two consecutive greens) ; then the 5ma of the >10ma flipped colors from -0.2 to +6.6%

Likewise on Wed0102, the bluesky 5ma of the >10ma flipped colors from -0.2 to +6.6%

   3:35am 3/9/13 Saturday: Let's take a step back and reminisce about two time periods, i.e. Wednesday, January 2, 2013.
   "looking 10 back on a 10ma; looking 5 back for a 5ma"

   3:30am 3/9/13 Saturday: btw the market monitor per TC2 looks awfully bullish.
   The CAVEAT however, is that the bsky is at a 74% level; the vbbee has been mixed. NOT good. Brian does know about this part of my analysis.
focus on the Friday, February 08, 2013 pop to 74%

   3:28am 3/9/13 Saturday: Interested in the VNTV per brian; check potential trades.
   Also a a cyst on my foot: christopher yee: 536-6584; mike chun: 220-2405; mel wong: cyst like structure from thursday: plantar surface of the right foot; anterior- medial calcaneous.

Friday, March 8, 2013:
   4:46am 3/8/13 Friday: YUM gave me signals the past two days.

Thursday, March 7, 2013:
   6:05pm: reviewing the market mo log: here is a note that I posted into the spreadsheet with the accompanying view:

3/7/13 5:59 pm: t2:
the 10sma continues to climb, i.e.
10% of stock greater than the 10sma continues to increase;
while the
5ma of the 10sma slowly declines.

   8:25am: I decided to go with Slim's MA, i.e. 13 &89 ma

Tuesday, March 5, 2013:

   7:59am 3/5/13 Tuesday: here's a link to fibonacci by Carolyn Boroden:
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/How-to-use-Fibonacci-Analysis.cfm

    5:29am: trying to keep a level head; no emotional highs, no emotional lows...
     BOT AAPL 50 Shares

Monday, March 4, 2013:

Inverse H&S on the XLF:

Sunday, March 3, 2013:
      5:18pm 3/3/13 Sunday: Coming along with the reports; doing some and staying mindful of the markets; very happy that I've found a semblance of the Market Profile, thanks to RCCBFlyer.
   Looks to me that there are a number of poor highs; the recent value area has encompassed the past two trading days. Peter is ambivalent and leery of the market.
   On a positive note, the POC has migrated higher.

10:08am: 3/3/13 Sunday: Great shadow videos:
What determines if you should take a trade by jim dalton:
http://tinyurl.com/jamesdalton

Jim Dalton Interview in June 2012:
http://tinyurl.com/daltoninterview

The accompanying write up to the june 2012 dalton interview; Very interesting write up on the tpoprofile by RCCBFlyer

http://tinyurl.com/tpoprofile

Finally: A video of peter trading regarding the 80% rule & market profile:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday100725st/sunday100725st.html

Here is the note by RCCBFlyer:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=256

Re: James Dalton Webinar - June 18, 2012
by RCCBFlyer » Thu Jun 21, 2012 4:47 am
MightyMo wrote:Peter, I enjoyed the webinar with James Dalton this afternoon very much. Thank you for putting that together. I have read Mind Over Markets and look forward to reading Markets in Profile. I understand you subscribe to a service for your view of the Market Profile as presented in daily blog. I also understand there are ways of viewing the TOS charts that present similar Market Profile information... including Monkey Bar and Monkey Bar Expanded chart styles or by using Candlestick charts and adding studies such as MonkeyBars and/or VolumeProfile. Is it possible to discuss some of the options and setting in the Shadow Trader room in the next couple days that would mirror your view of the Market Profile? I imagine that you may not be familiar with TOS options because you subscribe to the other service. If so, would it be possible to coordinate with someone on the TOS support side or another trader who is familiar with these options to discuss how they set up their Market Profile using the tools available from TOS? Other traders may be able to comment here in the forum. That would also be very much appreciated. Thanks for all you help. Sincerely, MightyMo
TOS - TPO Profile Study
To MightyMo and Shadow Traders,
I have been using the TPOProfile study overlaid on all my intraday charts (5, 15, & 30 Min).
TPOProfile parameters that I use are as follows:
price per row height mode = custom

(It's default is Automatic)

custom row height = 0.01

(It's default is 1)

time per profile = day

(It's default is CHART)

on expansion = no

(It's default is Yes)

all other parameters are default
Note: I use price per row height mode = ticksize for futures charts.
I use price per row height mode = custom & custom row height = 0.01 or 0.1 for stock charts
I considered getting additional service so I could see TPO letters, but decided to give this approach a try. I like the TOS platform too much.
I have found that I really like keeping the TOS candle charts. What I noticed Dalton doing in his webinars was always expanding the TPO letters on his TPO charts, so he could see the price range covered by each TPO letter. Well if you use a 30 min candle chart it is equivalent to expanding the individual TPO's on a TPO chart. So a candle chart with the TPOProfile overlay gives you the best of both worlds.
The other thing I really like about this approach, is that with the TPOProfile study the VAH & VAL are dynamically updated for the current session. I use these all the time for trade entry/exit.
I use the TPO profile vs Volume Profile per Dalton. Honestly, I do not think it makes a big difference whether you use TPO or Volume profiles. Use what works best for you; remembering that trading is more an art than a science (as discussed in the interview). I use primarily 30 Min charts for my trading decisions also per Dalton. If your used to using 5 or 15 min candle charts, this may seem a little strange, but Dalton makes all his trading decisions based on levels. So, he literally only uses horizontal support and resistance reference levels and market logic. He does not use trend lines or fibs. He uses what he calls one timeframing, which I look at as a way to break up a trend or trendline into levels. The ES chart for 6/21/12 shown in the attachment below shows an all most perfect example of one timeframing down where the high of each 30min candle does not take out high of prior candle. If you look at the chart below there is only one time where the prior high was taken out during the entire session and there was never a close over the high of a prior candle.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
RCCBFlyer

9:43am 3/3/13 Sunday: Reviewing the ST video. Peter notes that the divident stocks are rallying, which typifies the later stage of a bull rally. Refer to the Utilities sector $UTY, filled with divident stocks:

In comparison, the banks & broker dealers are lagging:

broker dealers:

6:40am 3/3/13 Sunday: There are two pieces of info that I'd shared; one at stock bee and the other just for myself on mtm; good now I am rewarding myself & myself only with information. My problem in the past was the "need to always share... " don't need2 do that anymore.

$BPNYA: Interesting how via the weekly view, it looks like we are about two weeks ahead of last year's bearish pace:

6:43am 3/3/13 Sunday: Next here is a graphic on bluesky's early read; it might behoove me to look at that as an update via tc2000... that is a superb idea.

Saturday, March 2, 2013:
5:54pm 3/2/13 Saturday: In retrospect: I should've kept an eye on bluesky's sma10%; that was the most telling in the drop.
Especially telling was the ratio that went to a low of -6.4%; then the next move was to a 0.8%

5:22pm: 3/2/13 Saturday: The more I look at ORLY, the more I like it. I've put down dates of revisits for certain charts.

9:23am: 3/2/13 Saturday: Here is my watch list & age of choices; notice the ones the past few days are very choppy. These have all buy signals from T2108; I've color coded the signaled stocks:
for a more updated version look at the "Potential Trades."

Thursday, October 04, 2012	NFLX
Friday, October 26, 2012	AVY
Friday, November 23, 2012	NKE
Monday, December 03, 2012	FTK
Wednesday, December 12, 2012	MS
Thursday, January 03, 2013	TSCO
Monday, January 07, 2013	KORS
Tuesday, January 22, 2013	BNNY
Tuesday, January 22, 2013	CZZ
Thursday, January 24, 2013	MJN
Monday, January 28, 2013	ORLY
Tuesday, February 26, 2013	WHR
Tuesday, February 26, 2013	BKS	CHOPPY
Wednesday, February 27, 2013	PVH	CHOPPY
Friday, March 01, 2013	FFBC	CHOPPY

brown: older bull
lite brown: middle aged bull
green: young bull
red: choppy bull

10:25am 3/2/13 Saturday:
Here's something interesting, I'll call this +/-2 SD, now +/-1 SD; just to jerk the retail investors; which goes to prove Peter's comment of how short term money is the main player.

Just used the QID and was just playing around with the fibs from 2/20 onwards. These studies are using the kathy lien bbs.

Saturday, March 2, 2013:
Enabling the Quick Launch QuickLaunch tool bar
3/2/13 3:31 am: enable the Quick Launch toolbar on Windows 7? And several members were quick to answer the call. Here are the steps.
Right click on an empty space on the Windows 7 taskbar and make sure “Lock the taskbar” is NOT checked. This will allow us to move the Quick Launch bar once we reactivate it.
Right click on an empty space on the Windows 7 taskbar and from the resulting Context Menu, click Toolbars and then New Toolbar.
When the New Toolbar - Choose a folder window appears, paste the following path into the location bar:

%appdata%\Microsoft\Internet Explorer\Quick Launch
Once you’re certain that the path shows AppData | Roaming | Microsoft | Internet Explorer | Quick Launch, click Select Folder.The Quick Launch toolbar will now appear on the Windows 7 taskbar, but it will be on the right side of the screen next to the System Tray. Let’s move it back to the left side where the toolbar should be.
right click on tool bar & uncheck: show text, show title (only small icons remain)

Friday, March 1, 2013

12:00 AM: Here is a note that was created by Midnight in May 12, 2007 from the url:
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-profile/1755-does-anyone-use-marketdelta-com.html

In closing, after trying hard to make the marketdelta tools (primarily the footprint charting) work for me, I had to admit that it wasn't adding to my bottom line and was instead hindering my performance by keeping me off many really good trades. I like the concept and the theory but could not turn it into more $$$s in my account. Because of this, I dumped it last month and switched over to neoticker to pursue a simplier version of what I was doing with market delta tools centered around the same theme -- supply and demand.

Best regards,

MK

Later today at 4:15am Jim Dalton speaks on the ShadowTrader being propped by Peter. Neoticker perhaps is a less expensive alternative to MarketDelta?

In December 2010, Sergio claimed to have created a spreadsheet that does the MP:

Free Market Profile Charting Tool
http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3368169287593898679&pli=1#allposts
Hi,
I'm new to the Market Profile.
After 6 months studying forex in my free time I finally found a method that I understand and which doesn't make me enter a position for some strange reason when a line (that i don't exactly know why has been placed there) is touched from the price.
I read here and there few books of Wiley Steidlmayer and I appreciate the theory behind the TPOs analysi. It gave me a more complete knowledge than many other books around which to a beginner like me looks like without rhyme or reason.
I instead less understood the part about the Market Profile with Volumes, maybe I'm not ready for that, even if I think would be really usefull.
So my analysis with MP are only about price movement and Bell Curve fullfilment, NO Volumes... also because finding the right, free datas about volumes would be impossible.
I'm a beginner so I don't wnat to spend money for something that will probably make me loose more money.
After have looked for a free software with TPOs I gave up and choose to make my own.
I finally developed an Excell worksheet (actually is made with OpenOffice Calc) with which is possible to visualize Market Profile charts after have inserted Highs and Lows from a simple copy/paste from the MT4 History Center.
Thanks to macros I've written is possible then to calculate automatically Value Area, Point of Control, Initial Balance, TPOs Count.
The file generates the profiles for an whole week.
In one sheet every day is splitted in asian and western session. In the other there are the whole days which are then joined toghether for shape the weekly market profile.
I use it with the forex spot, but I don't know if it is a good idea... I use the forex spot only because is the most accessible (I use alpari) to a beginner.
The truth is that I'm sharing this tool I made because I want to know if it is the correct way to interpret the MP with the Forex.
For instance I didn't know what to use as Initial Balance in a market opened 24h. So I choosed to consider the asian session as IB for the whole day, but I'm not sure this is the correct thing to do.
Maybe market profile should be used only with futures? but how can I trade futures in an easy way as the forex can offer?
do you have any market to suggest me which would be better to trade with the MP?
These are two images from my worksheet... you can also appreciate a perfect Bell curve for the weekly profile
I hope that my work can be of any itnerest for some other beginner and to receive some usefull help or suggestion on how to better use this tool.
If want the worksheet, just send me a private message on this forum or leave your email.

Re: Free Market Profile Charting Tool
sorry everybody... after a while I forgot about this post..
you can download it form here; SergioMP.ods
and here an explanation
for use this worksheet you need OpenOffice Calc. Is like excell but you can download it for free from internet, just google it.
I've written two Macros in this worksheet, one deletes all the data inserted in the different day tables for high and lows (called Clean), the other calculate and visualize value area initial balance etc. (called SUBs)
if you don't know how to add a macro to an hotkey please follow this video from the minut 1.58:
Calc. How to create macro and set hot keys - YouTube

In the worksheet there are 3 sheets for every day, you insert the open-high-low-close value for each half hour in the first sheet and automatically the prpofile will appear in the sheets with asia-western session and whole day session. For visualize value areas point of control and so on, you have to run the SUBs macro and wait few seconds.
i trade with EUR/USD forex spot., but the scale of the prices will change accordingly to the values you insert in the Highs-lows table.
In the "parametri" sheet there are few parameters you can change for adit the scale price step, or open-close time or the range of prices shown in respect to the open price of the week.
The macro SUBs will calculate every day that has an open price inserted, if there's also the closing price, the day will be calculated only if in the cell "i50" there's the number "1".

12:52am: Today there is Jim Dalton's seminar on MP. Anxiously awaiting the response from "sergio83" from Traderslaboratory.com. It'll be sent to my gmail address; so I'll need to check whether my post was made & whether I get a response from sergio.

A concern regarding the market is yester's discrepancy between the NH-NL from tc, et al & the 4%+/-

Wasn't there also a doji in the /es yester?

5:43 AM: 3/1/13 Friday:
Jim Dalton is not a "profile trader."
Interesting question from Dalton: "Who controls the market?"

Thursday, February 28, 2013:
btw: the last trading day of the month; followed by tomorrow the first trading day of the month. $BPNYA is below the 10ma so wait for signals.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p62496154332

7:03am: 2/28/13 Thursday: Last Trading day in February
Did a Bluefin Dragon scan:
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=DV,FBHS,OI,ORLY,VLO

8:28am: 2/28/13 Thursday, last trading day of the month:
TNA possibly to:

Tuesday, February 26, 2013:
2/26/13 1:42 am: for tc2:

the 10% down was a 4292; the sma10% dropped from 33% to 32% (the previous friday was your main clue dropping from 63% to 42%); and the sma5 dropped from +1.2% DOWN to -3.9%

DC confirmed this per tinyurl.com/bpnya10ma i.e. where the price dropped below the 10ma

the mm10 dropped even lower; last week

3:21am: 2/26/13 tuesday note remember Wednesday, February 20, 2013; you witness first hand the changes in MM; noted it to brian, who really didn't give it much due respect:

This happened the WEDNESDAY, week following EXPIRY!
shot of the calendar:
http://tinyurl.com/20130220
http://tinyurl.com/bpnya10ma
http://tinyurl.com/swing20130220

5:30am 2/26/13 Tuesday:

6:18pm 2/26/13 Tuesday:
2/26/13 4:05 pm: the sma10, sma5, mm5 mm10 have all progressively worsened the past six days (given a day or so of glitch)

12:42pm 2/26/13 Tuesday: We are now in the whipsaw zone

Saturday, February 23, 2013:
9:28 AM: 2/23/13: Gil Morales & Chris Kacher (like catcher): Webinars:
tinyurl.com/selfishinvesting
     (do the jan 18, 2013 to feb 1, 2013) Pocket Pivot 10ma 50ma exits
functionally about "moving average violations"
   (this is in my blog)

Friday, February 22, 2013:
2/22/13 5:12 pm: Why was I so positive, i.e. keeping TNA over the weekend?
   Well, nhTC was +132 or +528% more than the weak, anemic Thursday numbers of 25.
   And the T2108 crawled up +4 to 60 from yester's 56.
   Also, the 10upsma10 rose>TH & Wed's # (2552 vs. 1932, 2457 respectively); also the 10d stocks (i.e. <sma10) were less than the past two days, i.e. lesser negative).

Noted the TC2 pattern, i.e. the 2/4/13 3 of 5 reds; then the 2/15/13 3 of 4 pattern; re: 4%+/-
re: the bsky: sma10% up11% points from 33% to 44%; the sma5 was less negative, i.e. went from yester's -5.4% to -3.0%; nothing earth shattering and iffy at best; as noted by bsky.

6:11am 2/23/13 Saturday:
Here is a very interesting note from Dan; i.e. he will be sitting out a few weeks because the $BPNYA drifted into a SELL signal.
I should follow suit.

7:10am 2/23/13 Saturday: The DAY chart is not too promising wr2 the dpo rsiw macd cammo, etc. For the weekend, I might be ok; however, be good to trade out of the position, when possible.

20130205 tuesday

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

journal20130428

Definition of 'Inside Day'

Investopedia explains 'Inside Day'

Re: James Dalton Webinar - June 18, 2012

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