journal20160717 to 0817

7/30/16:


And when it does it will be VERY compelling, #VIOLENT moves.... $UVXY could easily move 8% in 2-4 days. #WAIT for the VIX bottoming tail hammers. Or shooting stars on the $SPY...... it's coming soon. "Day 4" is Monday..... we'll see...... "melting up has been the nemesis for the bears."

Patiently waiting for the "panic buying," when the bears throw the white towel by covering their shorts & "dumb money retailers" jump in. = shooting star or high tailed candle.... followed by next day gap down.....

***********Referenced Post 7/30/16 02:15 PM********
@ryanj $NUGT - Good Post...metal stops. I also took a very small loss on $VXX but the day will come but we just don't know when that will be and then $UVXY will kick in.




*********

@GOOSE

I am proposing to #ALL the $VXX #HONKER trade with #SPECIAL regard to your fine idea of selling #VOLATILITY against volatility.

Laying in bed....was jotting down the ideas in my hand written journal... now I am totally #engaged.

When and if the #VIX spikes to say... >25... be ready to buy LONG (NOT SELL)#BACKMONTH (>55 days... LONG) MONTHLY  #NTM  or  #ATM  #PUTS.

This is so friggin' #COUNTERINTUITIVE  that it'll work... I have paper traded it, and have done a small position ... but I've closed it way too early... (like two weeks ago... what a #numbskull!!!!)

Please #ALL #SMM ppl do NOT share this idea #ANYWHERE on the internet!!! The more ppl know about it... the less effective it gets. BTW, I've monitored the $VXXput #VOLUME at different months...  #BIGMONEY  seems to go with the #PARAMETERS  I have researched.... and those  #HERE that know me... I am both #PASSIONATE and #COMPULSIVE about my research.

Based on the thesis, from my longstanding journaling & observations:

#1) $VXX is a ETN... i.e. "eventually trades to #NOTHING;"
http://tinyurl.com/eventuallyTRADEStoNOTHING

$UVXY is similarly bad, but $VXX per my research is worse.
http://tinyurl.com/erosion20160720uvxy

#2) Trade needs time... and nice #GAMMA & #VEGA, so back month, near or at the money....

#3) http://tinyurl.com/uvxy20160730honkerDOWN
I have a few other  #parameters  ... keeping 'em privvy...

So that's #OUR #HONKER trade... where we scale into back month NTM ATM Long $VXX Puts, when the VIX gets peaky.

Full disclosure & Caveat: Bear in mind.... 2007 & 2008!!!! VIX went ballistic... a VERY #BADMOVIE yes... one that I'd seen before).

So WAIT for the reversal #SIGNALS.
Listen to @DAN'S thoughts:
http://tinyurl.com/dan20160729marketVIX

#NEWBIES click on the #HASHTAGS, it'll take you to a few interesting thoughts... including @Champs #1.

#meettheHONKER  #meattheHONKER
#HONKERDOWN

And #remember: to feel blessed ( "sometimes") to think different....
And I know from personal experience... thinking different is not always embraced.

http://tinyurl.com/thinkDifferent1997

****Referenced Post 7/29/16 9:30 PM:***

"Thanks for your post Janner. Have a great weekend. GOOSE"

04:40 AM 07/30

7/30/16:
@GOOSE

I am proposing to #ALL the $VXX #HONKER trade with #SPECIAL regard to your fine idea of selling #VOLATILITY against volatility.

Laying in bed....was jotting down the ideas in my hand written journal... now I am totally #engaged.

When and if the #VIX spikes to say... >25... be ready to buy LONG (NOT SELL)#BACKMONTH (>55 days... LONG) MONTHLY  #NTM  or  #ATM  #PUTS.

This is so friggin' #COUNTERINTUITIVE  that it'll work... I have paper traded it, and have done a small position ... but I've closed it way too early... (like two weeks ago... what a #numbskull!!!!)

Please #ALL #SMM ppl do NOT share this idea #ANYWHERE on the internet!!! The more ppl know about it... the less effective it gets. BTW, I've monitored the $VXXput #VOLUME at different months...  #BIGMONEY  seems to go with the #PARAMETERS  I have researched.... and those  #HERE that know me... I am both #PASSIONATE and #COMPULSIVE about my research.

Based on the thesis, from my longstanding journaling & observations:

#1) $VXX is a ETN... i.e. "eventually trades to #NOTHING;"
http://tinyurl.com/eventuallyTRADEStoNOTHING

$UVXY is similarly bad, but $VXX per my research is worse.
http://tinyurl.com/erosion20160720uvxy

#2) Trade needs time... and nice #GAMMA & #VEGA, so back month, near or at the money....

#3) http://tinyurl.com/uvxy20160730honkerDOWN
I have a few other  #parameters  ... keeping 'em privvy...

So that's #OUR #HONKER trade... where we scale into back month NTM ATM Long $VXX Puts, when the VIX gets peaky.

Full disclosure & Caveat: Bear in mind.... 2007 & 2008!!!! VIX went ballistic... a VERY #BADMOVIE yes... one that I'd seen before).

So WAIT for the reversal #SIGNALS.
Listen to @DAN'S thoughts:
http://tinyurl.com/dan20160729marketVIX

#NEWBIES click on the #HASHTAGS, it'll take you to a few interesting thoughts... including @Champs #1.

#meettheHONKER  #meattheHONKER
#HONKERDOWN

And #remember: to feel blessed ( "sometimes") to think different....
And I know from personal experience... thinking different is not always embraced.

http://tinyurl.com/thinkDifferent1997

****Referenced Post 7/29/16 9:30 PM:***

"Thanks for your post Janner. Have a great weekend. GOOSE"

04:40 AM 07/30



7/29/16:
Most probably....

http://tinyurl.com/tankingUSD

I wouldn't.. $XOM's IV% is just too.low... about 18% front month... 21% further back (month).

Besides with the VIX being so low at $11.85 ish... you risk being put the stock if the VIX spikes. Check my earlier note, the VIX is undergoing a volatility squeeze. 

Chances are IMO going into August that volatility rises.... thereby inflating the price of puts....

http://tinyurl.com/volatilitySQUEEZE 

Here's an idea to consider, paper trade a short put trade on either $XOM or $CVXon Monday, often one of the better days to sell options. Let this trade be your "tell."